A drop in 18-year-olds largely caused by the Great Recession beginning in 2007 has reduced the number of traditional college-age students. The trend is commonly referred to as the “enrollment cliff.” Colleges are expecting a 13% drop in high school graduates by 2041, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.
But university leaders disagree on how much that will impact each university. ASU President Michael Crow has routinely pointed to students who have completed some college but don’t yet have a degree as a growth opportunity for the school.
“It’s fiction because there’s no shortage of people wanting a college diploma in the United States,” Crow said in a previous Board of Regents meeting about reports predicting a decline in college enrollment nationwide.
The rate of Arizona high school students seeking higher education still lags behind the national average. Currently, only half of the state’s high school graduates go on to seek some kind of postsecondary education, whether that is at a traditional university or trade school.
And Arizona is also relying on its public university system to support a growing need for highly educated workers as major industries, from semiconductor plants to manufacturing, continue to flock to the state.
Fewer international students enrolling
ASU leaders said nationwide drops in international students were to blame for their slight overall enrollment decrease.
“Although the overall campus enrollment is projected to fall slightly, this is due entirely to delays and visa denials that our admitted international students have faced,” Vice President of Enrollment Matt López said in a statement. “We continue to see strong enrollments from across the country and within Arizona.”