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If there’s something we’ve learned from the annual Hope-O-Meter survey, it’s that college football fans are reasonable, emotionally stable people who never overreact.
Just kidding.
But one thing is certain: Indiana fans are feeling good about their team. And why wouldn’t they be? The Hoosiers won the 2025 national championship, and all 381 of the IU fans who responded to our survey are optimistic entering the 2026 season.
On the other end of the spectrum are the faithful from Chapel Hill — but that was before North Carolina’s surprising win over TCU in Dublin last week. How many of the 95.6 percent of UNC fans who said they were pessimistic about the season have changed their mind?
The 2026 Hope-O-Meter received 8,933 responses covering 125 programs. Close to 80 percent classified themselves as optimistic. The other 1,885 have watched this sport before.
Biggest topics
Coaching changes, quarterback play, NIL and the transfer portal dominated the responses. No surprises there.
What felt different this year was how many fans expressed optimism about their teams and existential dread about the sport at the same time.
That was especially common among Group of 6 fans, who are tired of watching their best players and coaches getting poached by wealthier programs. Winning is still fun. It’s just harder to sustain those winning ways when success triggers an offseason going-away sale.
Northern Illinois fan Jay remembered when upsetting Notre Dame or reaching the Orange Bowl felt like an attainable dream.
“NIL is great for some teams,” he wrote, “but not a team like NIU.”
Three storylines to watch: Indiana, Arch and Kiffin
Stewart Mandel
Where is confidence brimming?
Indiana and SMU were the only power-conference programs without a single pessimistic fan.
SMU fans cited the return of quarterback Kevin Jennings, Rhett Lashlee’s coaching, an improved roster and the financial backing necessary to survive modern college football.
“Money buys wins,” SMU fan Ben wrote.
National runner-up Miami ranked third in preseason positivity, followed by Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, BYU, Oregon, Louisville, Ole Miss, Texas and Ohio State.
Miami fans have declared The U back so many times that “back” should probably come with an expiration date. This time, however, nearly all Miami respondents believe it: 159 of 161 (99 percent) were optimistic, up from 93 percent last year.
“The talent is there. The money is there. The quarterback is there,” Canes fan Steve wrote. “If Miami can’t win now, I don’t know when it will.”
Fighting Irish fans see a deep, expensive and championship-caliber roster with a favorable path. They also understand that such advantages eliminate nearly every acceptable excuse.
“A great setup to run the table, but an absolute disaster if we lose even a single game,” Taylor wrote. “Natty or bust.”
Texas fans believe the Longhorns have assembled a championship roster around Arch Manning. The talent is so overwhelming that it has somehow become another source of stress.
“This year feels a bit scary,” Texas fan Rell Rice wrote. “I worry that they may be too talented.”
Louisville respondents are betting on coach Jeff Brohm, arguably the country’s best backfield and a manageable ACC schedule. BYU’s hope centers on quarterback Bear Bachmeier, running back LJ Martin and a veteran roster. Oregon and Ohio State fans expect their programs to reload because rebuilding is something other schools do.
“As long as the Buckeyes beat that damnable, felonious, crooked team from up north, there will be joy in my heart,” Andy Sims wrote.
Is that really true, Andy?
Biggest risers
Nothing produces optimism quite like a new coach who hasn’t lost a game yet.
Kentucky experienced the largest increase among Power 4 programs. Optimism jumped 75 percentage points after Will Stein replaced Mark Stoops. It immediately made Kentucky fans dream of an offense from this century.
“It is STEIN TIME IN THE BLUEGRASS!” Kentucky fan Hamby wrote.
The Wildcats’ schedule is brutal, and Stein, Oregon’s former offensive coordinator, has never been a head coach. But those are Week 2 problems. Nobody has thrown a screen pass on third-and-12 yet.
Confidence in Virginia Tech rose 72 percentage points after the hire of James Franklin. “Eight months later, and I still cannot believe that James Franklin is our head coach,” Hokies fan Tim wrote.
LSU fans are excited about Lane Kiffin’s offense, NIL resources, the transfer haul and a talented defense. They’re also relieved to be finished with Brian Kelly. “Saying Brian Kelly was mailing it in is an insult to the United States Postal Service,” LSU fan Luke wrote.
Hope grew from 43 percent to 95 percent for Oklahoma State fans after Mike Gundy was replaced by Eric Morris. The Cowboys are coming off a 1-11 season, so almost anything qualifies as progress. A functioning offense might cause a parade.
“The program overhaul creates a vacuum of knowledge where hope can live until reality hits,” Cowboys fan Aaron wrote.
New coach hires weren’t the only reason for increased optimism. Improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 and in some cases Year 3 to Year 4 led to substantial gains.
Hope climbed 61 points to 92 percent at Arizona with first-team All-Big 12 quarterback Noah Fifita returning for his final season after a five-win improvement in coach Brent Brennan’s second year.
Virginia’s 11-win season and ACC Championship Game appearance produced a big jump for Cavaliers faithful. Fans cited experienced lines, productive portal work, a manageable schedule and growing belief in Tony Elliott’s program.
“Are we going to take down a thermonuclear death star like Ohio State — or Indiana? No,” Cavs fan Luke wrote. “But those teams don’t exist in the ACC.”
Biggest fallers
Baylor experienced the largest collapse in confidence.
Optimism among Bears fans dropped from 93 percent last year to 23 percent heading into 2026 — and that’s after landing a former five-star quarterback (DJ Lagway) in the transfer portal. Respondents questioned Dave Aranda’s roster construction, the program’s lack of identity and why everybody is pretending this isn’t a lame-duck season.
“I need this season to be over and pray to the football gods we get a better head coach,” Baylor fan Brad G. wrote. “The question is, how long will Aranda last into the season before he’s canned?”
Patrick believes the Bears are “bear-ly bowl eligible at best.”
Hope for Boston College fans dropped 60 percentage points to 16 percent after Bill O’Brien’s second season. The Eagles lost significant personnel from a two-win team and are betting on an unproven quarterback situation.
“We’re bringing a butter knife to a gunfight,” BC fan Chris wrote.
Don C. offered this scouting report: “Our QB is a starter from Saginaw Valley State — they had a team?”
Hope for Kansas fans fell 58 percentage points to 35 percent after back-to-back 5-7 seasons under Lance Leipold.
Clemson fans’ hope dropped 58 points to 40 percent following a 7-6 season and a nine-player NFL Draft exodus. Some Tiger supporters worry Dabo Swinney is still trying to win in a version of college football that no longer exists.
“The program and culture coming from Dabo seems to be competing in an NCAA that’s no longer around,” Clemson fan Sean wrote.
North Carolina’s Hope-O-Meter plunged 56 percentage points. Other significant drops: Nebraska (53 percentage points), Iowa State (52), Duke (50) and Colorado (49).
Duke’s decline has a simple explanation: Miami swiped quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Cooper Barkate in the portal after both had told the staff they planned to return to Durham.
“Pros: Lots of returning guys, particularly on defense,” optimistic Duke fan Ed wrote. “Cons: I hear QB1 is an important role. Screw you, Miami.”
Where hope goes to die
North Carolina’s fans were the least optimistic among Power 4 programs at 4.4 percent — but, again, that was before the win over TCU last Saturday.
Cincinnati was next at 13 percent, followed by Boston College at 16 percent. Next lowest: Florida State (20), Arkansas (20), Purdue (21), Stanford (21) and Baylor (23).
Cincinnati respondents repeatedly pointed to Scott Satterfield, consecutive November collapses and the program’s inability to keep pace financially.
Derek noted that Cincinnati does not appear to have “any alums who are oil tycoons or Crumbl Cookie owners who can buy us everything we want.”
Purdue’s situation feels even worse because its in-state rival just won the national championship.
“Perhaps we should just disband,” Purdue fan Larry wrote.
Another Purdue fan, DW, found one enduring source of pride: “Same coaches. Same lack of success. Same cool train, though.”
Arkansas fans are preparing for a difficult rebuild under Ryan Silverfield. Grayson wrote it is “disheartening how much dreaming it takes to imagine a 5-7 season.”
Mason wrote there was more excitement for Arkansas basketball’s summer scrimmage against the Bahamas national team than for the Razorbacks’ football opener.
“Football is dead in Fayetteville,” he wrote.
Stanford fan Ryan went darker.
“I would rather be a Jets fan,” he wrote.
The Group of 6 divide
The survey collected more than 500 responses from fans of 57 Group of 6 programs. Of those respondents, 74 percent classified themselves as optimistic.
That sounds encouraging until you read the explanations.
Many G6 fans believe their teams can succeed this season. They’re less convinced that success matters in a system designed to funnel talent and money toward P4 schools.
Louisiana fan David is optimistic about the Ragin’ Cajuns but pessimistic about whether programs like his will have a place if the richest brands eventually break away.
After a MAC championship, Western Michigan fans are hoping for another big season before larger programs go shopping in Kalamazoo. Broncos fans feel like they got lucky this winter.
“It’s like the power teams just forgot to poach our best players,” Alex wrote. “Such is life as a college football minnow.”
James Madison reached the CFP last season, lost another coach and rebuilt again. Still, 41 of 44 Dukes respondents are optimistic.
“We crashed the party last year,” JMU fan A-Ron wrote. “For the rest of our days, our little school is going to be able to say that we did the thing.”
New Mexico fans believe Jason Eck has positioned the Lobos for a Mountain West championship.
North Dakota State’s move to the FBS has created excitement about new opponents, rivalries and possibilities.
Temple checked in at 83 percent optimistic, and Owls fan Ben found hope in the program’s personal injury law firm jersey sponsor.
“It’s like Temple looked in the mirror and said, ‘We’re going to get hurt. Literally and metaphorically. But we’re going to have representation,’” he wrote. “That’s not pessimism. That’s infrastructure.”
Among G6 programs with at least five responses, Wyoming had the lowest level of optimism at 14 percent. UAB was next at 20 percent.
“NIL may as well stand for Not In Laramie,” Wyoming fan Andrew wrote.
Over half (56 percent) of the UMass fans are optimistic after a winless 2025 season. Ryan is not part of that group.
“If anyone told me they were optimistic about UMass football,” he wrote, “I would assume they had recently been kicked in the head by a horse.”
Hope is powerful
Other highlights from the Hope-O-Meter …
(Comments lightly edited for length and clarity.)
• John P., pessimistic Alabama fan: “I’m not a deranged Bammer who demands we win every game or every title, but they need to avoid catastrophic, totalizing, pathetic losses like Oklahoma in 2024 and Florida State in 2025.”
• Will, optimistic Arizona fan: “As long as we have Noah (Fifita), we have a shot at the Big 12.”
• Kelly Barker, pessimistic Arizona State fan: “We keep losing our best QBs to transfers and, for reasons I don’t understand, are unable or unwilling to spend on NIL like other schools its size.”
• Dee, optimistic Auburn fan: “Finally got rid of ‘He who shall not be named.’ His hiring was the most embarrassing thing my school has ever done — and we had boosters on a plane to try to steal Bobby Petrino!”
• Will, pessimistic Auburn fan: “Bryan Harsin and Hugh Freeze have stolen my football joy, and I won’t let Alex Golesh do the same in a loaded SEC with a Group of 5 roster.”
• Hunter, optimistic Boise State fan: “We’re gonna get smoked by Oregon in Week 1, but if we can, by a miracle, keep it close, a playoff appearance could be back in the cards.”
• Sam Garrard, optimistic BYU fan: “Kalani Sitake’s program culture prioritizes character-building and investment in his players over winning and showing off. Leadership and program culture matter! See Indiana.”
• Goldenbear, optimistic Cal fan: “With the arrival of Tosh Lupoi, there is renewed enthusiasm not just in football but in all athletics in Berkeley. Eighty-eight million dollars in donations this year is huge.”
• Mike B, pessimistic Colorado fan: “Shedeur (Sanders) and Travis (Hunter) revived the Buffaloes. Unless a judge rules they are eligible to come back, another dreadful season awaits.”
• Anonymous, optimistic Colorado State fan: “The job continues to attract real coaches who have done well in other places. Jim Mora now heads to Fort Collins! Good luck!!”
• Nathan, optimistic Delaware fan: “Played in and won our first bowl game this past season. Relevance, here we come!”
• TK, optimistic East Carolina fan: “I’m not sure what to think. Get past Alabama without being embarrassed, win nine games and earn a mid-tier bowl game.”
• Stu, optimistic Florida fan: “Jon Sumrall seems to be the anti-Billy Napier, so that alone brings hope the program will return to glory.”
• George W., pessimistic Florida State fan: “The current coach is still the current coach not because of recent success or consistency, but because the athletic department and boosters don’t have enough funds to buy out his contract.”
• Ryan H., pessimistic Georgia fan: “It feels strange to complain after two straight SEC championships, but first-round exits in back-to-back Playoff games will do that.”
• Patrick, optimistic Georgia Tech fan: “Best running back room in the ACC and top 10 nationally, at worst. Transfer QB with championship lineage who knows what it looks like to win a title. Best defensive line at Tech in about 20 years.”
• Ash, optimistic Hawaii fan: “As long as (Micah) Alejado stays healthy, we have a shot to match or beat last year’s 9-4 record and compete for the Mountain West title.”
• Tim, optimistic Houston fan: “As fired up for football as I have been since 2016. Go Coogs!”
Willie Fritz has the Houston faithful believing in the Coogs. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
• Mike B., optimistic Illinois fan: “Will we beat Ohio State and Oregon? Hell no. But I like our chances in games against teams who are similar to us.”
• Bradley H., optimistic Indiana fan: “There’s part of me that feels like literally everything is house money from here on out.”
• Josh, pessimistic Iowa fan: “They will win eight or nine games and look horrible against any team that is actually good. (Kirk) Ferentz produces an incredibly consistent product, for better and for worse.”
• Blake, optimistic Iowa State fan: “Expectations could not be lower. Obviously, we’re replacing a program legend and most of the roster.”
• Mark, optimistic James Madison fan: “Cignetti? Chesney? Sun Belt Billy? Can lightning strike thrice?! Certainly. Dukes by 50.”
• David Watson, pessimistic Kansas fan: “The Big 12 is like Double-A minor-league baseball at this point. Even the big-money teams like Texas Tech and BYU can’t compete nationally, so why should I be hopeful for Kansas?”
• Grant N., optimistic Kansas State fan: “God Emperor Collin Klein has returned to rule the Big 12 with an iron fist.”
• Ben U., optimistic Kentucky fan: “Kentucky fans got what they wanted. A new coach. An offensive-minded coach. A young coach. A modern coach. Now we get to find out if we actually knew what we wanted.”
• Professor Stu, optimistic Louisville fan: “Jeff Brohm is the QB whisperer, we have a real QB prospect in Lincoln Kienholz, and we have the best RB tandem in the nation. What’s not to be optimistic about?”
• John, pessimistic LSU fan: “We hired Lane Kiffin. It’ll be fun, and we might win a lot of games. But eventually, we’ll get Lane Kiffin’d.”
• David, optimistic Maryland fan: “Malik Washington is the most exciting quarterback Maryland has had in years. If the defense improves, Maryland could surprise people who have forgotten we exist.”
• Adam, pessimistic Maryland fan: “We’re a basketball school that isn’t particularly good at basketball anymore. Football is somehow less encouraging.”
• Jordan, optimistic UMass fan: “We didn’t win a game last year … so there is only one way to go now: up!”
• S, optimistic Miami (Ohio) fan: “Gonna win the MAC and at least beat one Power 4 school.”
• Zach S., optimistic Michigan fan: “Coach (Kyle) Whittingham still has a little vitriol to learn when it comes to the biggest rivalry in sports, but I’ll let that slide if it means he can put this program back on the right track.”
• Nick G., pessimistic Michigan State fan: “It’s hard to keep track of the roster now. I had to buy the new CFB 27 game just so I could get to know who I’m rooting for this year.”
• Marty, optimistic Minnesota fan: “Drake Lindsey gives Minnesota something it rarely has: a quarterback opposing fans might actually know.”
• Andy, optimistic Mississippi State fan: “Kamario Taylor is going to take the country by storm. Jeff Lebby’s system finally gets going, and Zach Arnett will improve a defense that features one of the nation’s best cornerbacks in Kelley Jones.”
• Todd, pessimistic Missouri fan: “(Eli) Drinkwitz has raised expectations high enough that eight wins now feels unsatisfying, which is either progress or a new way for Missouri football to hurt me.”
• Bobby D., optimistic Navy fan: “We have an advantage in the American, where the best players on other teams are constantly being poached by P4 teams. Continuity has become underrated. … It’s always next man up!”
• Jacob, pessimistic NC State fan: “The program is just beige. Dave Doeren is beige.”
• Scott, pessimistic Nebraska fan: “Every year Nebraska fans believe the corner has been turned. At this point, we have walked around the entire block.”
• Wade, optimistic New Mexico fan: “Playoff or bust for the Lobos! Just kidding, but a 10-win season seems entirely plausible. Also, let’s be real, it’s gonna be our last season with Jason Eck before he heads to Wisconsin, so we might as well make the most of it.”
• Jon, optimistic North Texas fan: “Expecting a significant step down with so much turnover in the program. Still, excited to enjoy getting to know a new staff and roster.”
• Adam, optimistic Northwestern fan: “We have a cool new stadium and Chip Kelly. What the eff is going on?”
• Anthony T., pessimistic Notre Dame fan: “Charlie Brown is always optimistic he is going to kick that ball with Lucy holding it. I have been a Notre Dame fan for decades, and the Irish always end up disappointing me. But Go Irish!”
• Michael, optimistic Ohio fan: “The MAC is the MAC, so just about any of the schools can end up in Detroit — which makes it so much more fun than any of the top-heavy conferences.”
• Jason, optimistic Ohio State fan: “Ryan Day has shown he can reload like Nick Saban. At Ohio State, that means winning 12 games and spending the entire season discussing the one he might lose.”
• Geoff, optimistic Oklahoma fan: “We went 10-2 and made the Playoff with a nonexistent offense. It just feels sound in logic to say this team is better than last year.”
• Matt, pessimistic Ole Miss fan: “It’s difficult to separate how I feel about Ole Miss from how badly I want LSU and Lane Kiffin to fail.”
• Jess Porter, optimistic Oklahoma State fan: “Last year, all was lost. This year, I choose hope.”
• TP, optimistic Oregon fan: “Dante (Moore) and the defensive line returned to complete unfinished business and lead the Ducks to our first national championship.”
• Steve, pessimistic Oregon State fan: “Beaver and Wazzu fans are like Robbie Hart from ‘The Wedding Singer’ when he’s down in the dumps and trying to rebuild his life.”
• John H., pessimistic Penn State fan: “I don’t think Matt Campbell magically became Curt Cignetti on the drive over from Iowa.”
• Dan B., pessimistic Pittsburgh fan: “(Pat) Narduzzi will coach for another decade because of his completely unearned extension — how can you let a guy that wins seven games every year just walk away?!”
• Lee Cameron, pessimistic Rice fan: “Rice is a small school, and football just isn’t a priority. I’m a 1975 graduate. We weren’t good then, either.”
• Ghost of Cowboy Joe, pessimistic Purdue fan: “My cup leaketh.”
• Gwecky, pessimistic Rutgers fan: “Rutgers’ Big Ten record since joining in 2014: 22-84. Greg Schiano’s record at Rutgers after 17 seasons: 99-108. If there’s something to be optimistic about, please let me know.”
• Kevin W., optimistic Sam Houston fan: “We won two games last season with all road games and no NIL money. We have both this season, as well as much better players.”
• Trevor, optimistic San Diego State fan: “I’m ready for some 49-42 shootouts.”
• Matt, optimistic South Carolina fan: “Beamer is an every-other-year successful head coach; with last year being 4-8, we’re back on the timeline for a successful 2026.”
• Paul, pessimistic South Florida fan: “All the best players went to Auburn.”
• Clif, pessimistic Southern Miss fan: “We’ve fallen mightily since I attended USM. Back then, the defense was known as the Nasty Bunch, and the SEC and other conferences feared playing us.”
• David, pessimistic Stanford fan: “I basically don’t watch college football anymore.”
• Lori, optimistic Syracuse fan: “I just really like Fran Brown, so I’m totally pulling for him and my team. And if they have a miserable year … I will want him gone.”
• Kyle Owen, optimistic Texas State fan: “With returning offensive firepower and a veteran defense mostly still intact, the ’Cats might be a sleeping giant.”
• Matt M., optimistic Texas Tech fan: “Watching Tech not merely improve on the defensive side of the ball, but instead become elite, was quite the shock to the system after years of futility.”
• Bart Barrett, optimistic Tennessee fan: “Our biggest problem is that we play in the SEC and not the ACC.”
• Lane, pessimistic Texas A&M fan: “They’re the 76ers of college football — occasionally wildly talented and interesting, but never cohesive enough to make it count.”
• Steeve, optimistic Toledo fan: “The schedule is set up in a way that could have the Rockets competing for that G6 playoff spot and becoming college football’s biggest villain.”
• Arthur, pessimistic Tulane fan: “Terrified that our new coach doesn’t know what he’s doing.”
• Charles, pessimistic UAB fan: “UAB hired the worst coach in college football history in 2022 and mercifully fired him last year, but decided to hire his offensive coordinator and keep many of his staffers. UAB also has no money. Worse times are ahead.”
• Chad, optimistic UCF fan: “Got Alonzo Barnett from JMU, which is awesome, but UCF is broke, and the line play will be a problem.”
• Zach, optimistic UCLA fan: “Having Bob Chesney and his staff makes it feel like the program has adults in the room for the first time since Jim Mora’s first two years in Westwood.”
• Rebel, optimistic UNLV fan: “After years of awful football filled with platitudes about potential and hope of being a sleeping giant, the Rebels have finally awoken.”
• Adolfo, pessimistic USC fan: “There are still a lot of question marks on defense, and question marks probably won’t get it done against Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana.”
• John, pessimistic Utah fan: “Utah is again an afterthought. To make matters worse, BYU is ascending.”
• Ron Reyes, pessimistic UTEP fan: “There is nowhere to go but up for the Miners! Back in the Mountain West where they should have been long ago, playing other teams their fans will actually care about.”
• Kyle Rodriguez, optimistic UTSA fan: “Our toughest games are at the Alamodome, a place where we have gone 25-1 in conference games since 2019. We will beat Navy for our first AAC championship and go on to play in the College Football Playoff!”
• DK, optimistic Vanderbilt fan: “Nobody named preseason All-SEC this year, and that’s a good thing. We’re going to sneak up on people now that (Diego) Pavia is gone.”
• David G., optimistic Wake Forest fan: “Will Wake be playing for the CFP? No. But Jake Dickert proved he’ll have them dressed and competing each week, which is about as good as it gets for a small school. The only thing left to wonder is how many more years we have before Dickert leaves for a larger school.”
• Jake H., optimistic Washington fan: “From everything that has been made public, the Demond (Williams) fiasco is in the rearview.”
• Kyle D., optimistic West Virginia fan: “We don’t really have a choice. Rich Rod is back and represents the highest level of optimism we’ve had in a long time.”
• Paul Pysh, pessimistic West Virginia fan: “Rich Fraudriguez, in my opinion, is too far out of touch with how to adjust his coaching style to today’s game.”
• Mike, pessimistic Wisconsin fan: “(Luke) Fickell’s tenure seems snakebit. Unfortunately, it seems Fickell is the one who provided the snakes.”