There are a handful of NHL teams stuck in the NHL’s middle class, arguably a place you don’t want to be when it comes to your short- and long-term prospects of winning. The 2026-27 season will be particularly interesting, as several teams could finish anywhere from a wild-card playoff spot to 12th or 13th in their respective conferences. These teams could be classified as playoff-bubble or draft-lottery-bubble teams.
The fortunate news for them is that, with the new draft-lottery rules, finishing just outside the playoffs isn’t as troubling as it once was. However, the draft-lottery rules have likely disincentivized teams from tanking, because there are no guarantees of a top pick. Just ask the Vancouver Canucks. It’s hard to quantify exactly how much that has impacted things, but it’s clear that the NHL’s mushy middle is bigger than it has been in the past two decades. Let’s look at the teams who could be stuck there this season.
The Nashville Predators are what the kids would call “mid.” The Predators have finished between fourth and seventh in the Central Division for seven straight years and don’t appear destined for a much better fate this season. Nashville lacks an elite young NHL-ready core and isn’t likely to see much improvement from its aging veterans, but it’s not bad enough to warrant a full teardown, nor should it.
New general manager Chris MacFarland made some moves this offseason to bolster the core and push for a playoff spot, which the Predators should compete for. The good news for Predators fans is that they have a top-10 farm system (or top five, depending on who you ask), so help is on the way in the form of prospects. But they aren’t ready yet.
If Nashville is the textbook definition of mid, the Detroit Red Wings are a close second. The Red Wings are a team whose roster and on-ice results don’t seem to align. They have young stars, decent depth, and some terrific veteran forwards that would make blowing up the roster absurd. But while this roster is solid, they lack truly game-breaking offensive players and could be without some of their better offensive pieces by the time the season starts.
A new GM is necessary to evaluate which direction makes the most sense, but much of their future depends on how the Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat situations are handled. The Atlantic Division is going to be a buzzsaw this season, and perhaps a slow start will push Detroit in the direction of a teardown. If not, they figure to be in a dogfight to make the playoffs, and it feels like they will be on the outside looking in come April.
Would it shock you if the New York Islanders finished the season with 75 points? What about 95 points? Either outcome would likely have fans nodding and saying, “Makes sense.” That’s a wide variance, and one the Islanders hope to finish on the high end. The Islanders have the seventh-oldest team in the NHL, with most of their top talent either approaching 30 or already past it.
The lineup is too old, too expensive, and, quite frankly, too good to tear down to the studs, but it might be the appropriate thing to do in the long term. The Islanders have a foundational building block in defenseman Matthew Schaefer and a very good prospect system led by Kashawn Aitcheson, Victor Eklund and Calum Ritchie. They’re well positioned for the future, but this season it feels like they will be in a battle to reach the postseason.
What exactly are the Seattle Kraken? They are a team with a reasonable amount of NHL-calibre talent, but no one is going to mistake them for a threat to win their division or make a playoff run. However, the Pacific Division is a weird one because it has possibly the two worst teams in hockey, the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks, and then a bunch of decent teams in the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings, and San Jose Sharks.
Even the top teams, Edmonton and Vegas, aren’t exactly runaway favorites to win the division, making it possible that Seattle could compete for a playoff spot thanks to a weak division.
We would be remiss not to mention the Pittsburgh Penguins in this piece, as they have been the prototype of a mid-tier team for the better part of the last five years. Pittsburgh has refused to rebuild in the Sidney Crosby era and appears content to kick that can down the road as long as Sid keeps signing for $8.7MM a season and remains one of the best centers in hockey.
The Penguins are running it back for another season and, once again, tinkered around the edges without making any major additions. Their goaltending is unproven, and the left side of their defense could be the worst in the league, but they have an unimaginable amount of forward depth and could be a surprise in the Eastern Conference once again. Or, if their goaltending struggles to adapt and their defense is exposed, it’s still hard to imagine them bottoming out, given how many goals they will score this year.
The most dangerous place for an NHL organization is in the middle. It’s difficult to pivot to a rebuild when ownership and fans don’t always have the patience to do so if the team feels like it’s on the cusp. It’s also hard to attract desirable free agents to a team that may or may not be good unless you overpay. Bad teams often get permission to rebuild; they get leeway to be patient; they get higher draft picks and, eventually, cap flexibility.
Good teams keep their stars, become a desirable destination, and enjoy legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations. On top of all that, the business generally does better when the on-ice product excels. That’s what makes it so interesting that this many teams are stuck in the middle heading into this season.