With the saga surrounding Evergrande founder Hui Ka‑yan ending in his life sentence and the ongoing financial struggle of mainland developers, analysts said challenges remained for troubled operators getting away from the vicious cycle of a sluggish property market, even though risk resolution had largely been completed for some cases.
Despite the difficulty, better-capitalised state-owned enterprises would prove more resilient and should gain market shares amid uncertain earnings outlooks, they added.
“Just as we thought China’s property sector was entering a ‘sweet spot’ – fewer incremental policy shocks and a more organic path to a cyclical inflection point – regulators are intervening again,” Michelle Kwok, head of Asia real estate and Hong Kong equity research at HSBC, said in a report on August 31.Now in its fifth year since the Evergrande crisis began, China’s property downturn has spurred regulators to launch a series of stabilisation measures.
Chinese authorities issued a joint notice on August 28 to accelerate reform of the commercial housing sales system, with a clear push towards completed-home sales.
“While the direction has been signposted before, the timing is a meaningful negative surprise,” Kwok said.