Prices of shelter, food and transportation cooled in May, StatsCan said.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Canada’s annual inflation rate in May was unchanged from the previous month at 1.7 per cent as drop in gasoline costs continued to keep the overall index stable while prices of shelter, food and transportation also cooled, data showed on Tuesday.
There are concerns that a raft of tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum and automobiles exported to the U.S. from Canada and subsequent counter-measures from Canada would increase prices across the board.
Those fears have not been reflected in the headline consumer price index as a tax removal on gasoline prices from April is expected keep the cost at the pump down for a year.
Lower interest rates have also consistently eased mortgage costs and lower demand has forced rents to come down for the last several months.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected annual inflation in May to be at 1.7 per cent and monthly inflation at 0.5 per cent.
StatsCan said inflation in May on a monthly basis was at 0.6 per cent, largely led by a seasonal increase in travel, accommodation and energy costs.
Gasoline prices decelerated by 15.5 per cent in May after falling by 18.1 per cent in April on an annual basis, the statistics agency said.
The cost of shelter component of the CPI, which has a biggest weight at 30 per cent in the overall basket, grew by 3 per cent in May, down from 3.4 per cent in April, as both mortgage interest costs and rents eased last month.
The Bank of Canada closely-tracks core measures of inflation – CPI-trim and CPI-median – and both of them eased to 3 per cent, which is the upper band of the central bank’s 1 per cent to 3 per cent inflation target range.
CPI-median is the centermost component of the CPI basket when arranged in an order of increasing prices and CPI-trim, excludes the most extreme price changes.
The May inflation data is a critical number which will feed into BoC’s rates decision on July 30. It will also get the June inflation data before its next rates decision.
If inflation continue to be low, it could tilt the bank towards a rate cut.
After cutting rates aggressively and consistently for nine months since June last year by 225 basis points to 2.75 per cent, it has paused its rate reduction cycle at its last two meetings especially due to the uncertainty hanging around tariffs.
Money markets are betting around 63 per cent chance of yet another hold by the central bank of its policy rate at 2.75 per cent on July 30, when it also releases its monetary policy report.