This year’s El Niño climate event is expected to bring increased chances of rain and snow to the southern United States this winter as a “Super El Niño” develops, forecasters say.
Typically occurring every two to seven years, the climate phenomenon occurs when warmer waters push the Pacific jet stream south, leading to warmer and drier conditions in North America and wetter conditions in southern states, increasing flood risks.
The National Weather Service’s latest 3-month forecast shows North Texas has up to a 50% chance of seeing above-average rainfall, beginning in November.
Communities should plan ahead, NWS director Ken Graham said in an October news release, adding drought-stricken communities could benefit from the rain, but areas with drier soils face flood risks.
Fort Worth officials always monitor climate and forecasts, emergency management director Sonny Saxton said. But the city’s approach to inclement weather preparation is shaped by anticipating the worst, he added.
While studies on climate events such as El Niño help keep communities informed, Saxton said climatology better assists the city’s emergency response when forecasts are more timely and specific.
That includes when rain and cold snaps are expected, Saxton explained.
Fort Worth is updating its floodplain management plan. A map of central Fort Worth identifies the areas most at risk of flooding as of October 2026, including areas along or near the Trinity River. (Courtesy | City of Fort Worth)
“Where we live in Texas really does put us in the crossroads. We never really can tell where even a regular El Niño or a Super El Niño is going to fall,” Saxton said. “As emergency managers we’re plugged into climatology, but our message is to always be prepared.”
El Niño began developing in the tropical Pacific by June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported earlier this year. El Nino’s impact is usually minimal in the summer in the United States, intensifying into the fall.
Ahead of winter weather, city staffers are reviewing previous storms — from as early as the January 2026 Winter Storm Fern in January to as recent as the October rains — to identify how to streamline emergency response.
Staffers also use this time to assess what residents reported during inclement weather, Saxton said.
How to stay prepared ahead of inclement weather
Residents can enroll in the city’s ReadyFW alert and notification system at Fort Worth’s Emergency Management & Communications website.
The system issues weather warnings, public safety alerts and readiness and preparation information.
Emergency management director Sonny Saxton urges residents to keep emergency kits available at homes and set aside food, water and batteries during inclement weather.
More information and resources on Fort Worth emergency preparedness can be found here.
As crews prepare, Fort Worth officials will also educate the community through public events and sessions, detailing what to know when severe weather makes landfall.
“It could be in the form of ice or snow, but also, it could be additional rain events, especially early in the season,” Saxton said. “We just want people to take a moment while the weather’s nice and start thinking through those things.”
Among the factors that shape Fort Worth’s response to flooding and long-term flood prevention is looking at previous storms, anticipating future storms and noting how increased rains affect different parts of the city, floodplain administrator Lisa Biggs said.
“It’s not just El Niño,” Biggs said. “You just never know what kind of rainstorm event is going to hit that’s going to cause that flooding.”
In the days and hours before a storm, Fort Worth crews take preventative action in the city’s most flood-prone areas. That includes checking dams and drains for blockages, stormwater program assistant manager Jennifer Dyke said.
Most of Fort Worth’s floodplains are based inside Loop 820, where flood infrastructure is aging and underperforms, Dyke added.
Crews visit additional locations with varying degrees of flood risk as time allows, Dyke added.
Aside from taking the measure of imminent rain forecasts, Fort Worth officials think about long-term weather mitigation. That involves updating the city’s floodplain management plan, which is set to go to city council for a vote in December.
Fort Worth adopted the first plan of its kind in 2016. The city updates the document every five years, reassessing flood-prone areas, identifying levels of risk to residents and listing long-term strategies to reduce flood impacts.
Besides inspecting dams and drains, city officials also are exploring nature-based solutions such as declaring more undeveloped floodplain areas as dedicated open space and launching a native grass planting program that would help maintain natural water channels and detention ponds.
Fort Worth also amended its valley storage ordinance earlier this year. The city revised the ordinance to enforce a 0% net loss across all of Fort Worth’s natural land categorized as a FEMA special flood hazard area — or an area that has a 1% annual chance of flooding. This requires developers to restore any natural floodwater storage that was lost as a result of construction.
“It’s not just capital projects,” Biggs said. “The policies, communication … warning people during flood events is also mitigation.”
Nicole Lopez is the environment reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact her at nicole.lopez@fortworthreport.org.
The Report’s environment coverage is supported by the Marilyn Brachman Hoffman Foundation.
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