Financial advisor answers questions on tariffs, jobs report
TAKE EFFECT. COMING UP NEXT THURSDAY. SO JOINING US LIVE NOW IS MIKE ARMSTRONG, PRESIDENT OF ARMSTRONG ADVISORY GROUP. IT’S GREAT TO SEE YOU, MIKE, ESPECIALLY ON A FRIDAY. THANK YOU SO MUCH. THANKS FOR HAVING ME. LET’S JUMP INTO THIS JOBS REPORT HERE. SO IT SEEMS TO LEAN INTO THE SENSE OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY. YET THE MARKET TODAY NOTWITHSTANDING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY. AND INFLATION IS WAY LOW. SO WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE ATMOSPHERE RIGHT NOW? WELL, I THINK OF THE ATMOSPHERE A BIG RECOVERY FROM THE UNCERTAINTY BACK IN MARCH AND APRIL THAT HAS LED TO. YOU KNOW, A MARKET THAT COULD SEEMINGLY DO NO WRONG IN INVESTOR’S EYES AND AN ECONOMY THAT COULD SEEMINGLY DO NO WRONG. AND THIS WEEK, YOU GOT A FEW THINGS THAT DISRUPTED THAT NARRATIVE. AND WHEN YOU HAVE A MARKET THAT’S AS EXPENSIVE AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS, YOU KNOW, A DISRUPTION TO THAT NEWS CYCLE CAN DO THAT. AND THAT’S WHAT WE GOT TODAY WAS A PRETTY BIG JOBS REPORT TODAY THAT INDICATED THAT NOT ONLY WAS THE JOB CREATION IN JULY NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS WE THOUGHT, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, THAT OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HIRING AND THAT THAT DEMAND FOR LABOR OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST THREE MONTHS WAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY UNDERSTOOD. MIKE, WE ALSO KNOW THAT INVESTORS, THE CONCERNS THEY HAVE, THEY OFTEN MIRROR THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AT THE MOMENT, AS YOU WERE JUST SAYING. SO IF THE BIG CONCERNS RIGHT NOW, INFLATION, COST OF GOODS, BECAUSE THINGS ARE STILL VERY EXPENSIVE, INTEREST RATES MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO PLAN TO BUY A HOME OR EVEN A CAR. SO WHAT IS THAT TYPICAL SECTOR ON THE MARKET AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT PEOPLE ARE THINKING OF, OF RIGHT NOW TAKING ON MORE DEBT AND PURCHASING? YEAH. WELL, I THINK, YOU KNOW, TODAY’S NEWS WAS ALSO COMBINED. WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THESE TARIFFS AND THESE TARIFFS IN MANY CASES WERE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED, AT LEAST BY INVESTORS. I THINK A LOT OF FOLKS WERE STILL ASSUMING THAT WE WOULD GET A BIGGER NEGOTIATION, THAT THE RATES WOULD BE LOWER THAN WAS ANTICIPATED. AND THAT’S NOT WHAT WE GOT. WHAT WE GOT WERE ANNOUNCEMENTS THAT, HEY, YOU KNOW, SEVEN DAYS FROM NOW, TARIFF RATES ARE GOING TO GO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. AND EVENTUALLY THE ASSUMPTION, I THINK, IS THAT THAT PROBABLY GETS DELIVERED TO CONSUMERS. AND IF THOSE SAME CONSUMERS ARE FACING A WEAKENING LABOR MARKET AT THE SAME TIME, THEN THE ENGINE THAT DRIVES OUR ECONOMY, WHICH IS CONSUMER SPENDING, GETS CALLED INTO QUESTION WITH ALL OF THIS, TO THIS POINT, THERE’S BEEN VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF TARIFFS SEEPING THEIR WAY INTO CONSUMER BASED PRICE INCREASES. AND I THINK THAT’S IMPORTANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE’S VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF IT. YET. BUT WITH THESE NEW AVERAGE EFFECTIVE TARIFFS, YOU BRING THE AVERAGE TARIFF RATE INTO THE 18% RANGE. THE THE BUDGET LAB AT YALE, WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A LOT OF THE REALLY FRONT AND CENTER RESEARCH ON TARIFFS, IS ESTIMATING THAT THAT COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO $2,400 OF ADDITIONAL COST PER HOUSEHOLD, AND THAT WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT HIT. AND SO I THINK THIS WAS ONE OF THE BUSIEST WEEKS FOR ECONOMIC DATA EARNINGS THAT WE GET REALLY ALL YEAR, WITH JUST THE CULMINATION OF HOW EVERYTHING TIMED OUT. AND WHEN YOU GET ALL THESE THINGS TOGETHER, THERE’S THE POTENTIAL FOR BAD NEWS TO. SURPRISE MARKETS A BIT. LET ME KEEP YOU HERE ON THE TARIFFS FOR JUST A MOMENT, TOO, BECAUSE YOU MADE THE POINT THAT THEY SPARKED SOME TURBULENCE IN THE MARKET A COUPLE MONTHS AGO, LEVELED OFF IN CONSUMER SPENDING, AS YOU SAID. WELL THAT’S UP. SO THOSE ARE GOOD INDICATORS RIGHT. SO SOME DEALS HAVE BEEN MADE TRADE DEALS BUT SOME ARE OUTSTANDING. I WANT TO GET YOUR THOUGHTS ON EXPECTATIONS ON TWO MAJOR TRADE DEALS MEXICO AND CANADA. WHERE DO YOU SEE THINGS GOING. WHAT ARE INVESTORS WATCHING FOR? WELL CLEARLY THERE’S JUST A BIT MORE POSITIVE SENTIMENT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WHEN IT COMES TO MEXICO, GIVEN THE 90 DAY DELAY ON ON THOSE TARIFFS, I BELIEVE IT WAS 90 DAYS. I COULD BE MISQUOTING THAT ON CANADA. OBVIOUSLY WE INCREASED TARIFFS PRETTY SUBSTANTIALLY. WAS THE ANNOUNCEMENT. AND SO WHAT DOES THAT NEGOTIATION LOOK LIKE? IS THAT GOING TO COME INTO PLACE THE WAY THAT MANY, MANY BUSINESSES WANT. RIGHT. THESE ARE TWO OF THE THREE LARGEST TRADE PARTNERS THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS. MEXICO’S NUMBER ONE FOLLOWED BY CHINA, FOLLOWED BY CANADA. AND IF WE ARE VERY SERIOUSLY TALKING ABOUT MUCH HIGHER TARIFFS FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME, THAT IS QUITE DISRUPTIVE TO ALL SORTS OF BUSINESSES. THE AUTO SECTOR OBVIOUSLY COMES TO MIND FIRST. BUSY FOR A FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER. ISN’T IT, MIKE ARMSTRONG? YEAH, YEAH, I DIDN’T EVEN MENTION THERE WAS A FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING AND, YOU KNOW, COMING UP. YEAH, WE’LL WE’LL HAVE
Financial advisor answers questions on tariffs, jobs report
Updated: 5:13 PM EDT Aug 1, 2025
Mike Armstrong, president of Armstrong Advisory Group, answers questions about a weak jobs report, new tariffs and inflation.
Mike Armstrong, president of Armstrong Advisory Group, answers questions about a weak jobs report, new tariffs and inflation.