The Trump administration is touting record tariff revenue as the president reshapes global trade, and there’s a growing debate in Washington about giving some of that money back to Americans in the form of rebate checks. Let’s get the facts. How much money are tariffs raising?The U.S. government is currently bringing in about $30 billion in tariff revenue per month, a remarkable surge compared to recent years. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said last week that tariff revenues have reached more than $150 billion since Trump took office. “This is making our country very rich and respected again,” Trump told reporters on Thursday. Those numbers could soon grow. Additional import taxes on dozens of trading partners are set to take effect on Thursday, Aug. 7.Where is that money coming from?The White House has insisted that the cost of the tariffs will be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy. But experts say it’s largely Americans who are paying up. American businesses importing foreign goods pay import taxes to customs agents when those products cross the U.S. border. Those businesses then have a choice: absorb the added cost or pass it along to consumers. “It’s still up in the air how much is going to be absorbed or swallowed by American businesses and importers versus passed on to American consumers. Probably a little bit of each,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab.The Yale Budget Lab’s analysis of Trump’s updated tariff regime, taking effect Aug. 7, estimates it could amount to an average per-household income loss of $2,400 in 2025.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted at a press conference on Wednesday that while tariffs have started to show up in consumer prices, the overall impact on inflation remains unclear. He said the evidence so far suggests exporters “are paying a small portion,” while firms and retailers are “currently paying the bulk” of Trump’s tariffs. “We know from surveys that firms feel they fully intend to pass this on to consumers. But, the reality is that in many cases, they may not be able to do so. So, I think we’ll have to observe and learn empirically how much of this is happening,” Powell said. Will Americans get rebate checks?It’s not clear yet, but the idea has gotten the attention of the president and one Republican senator. “We have so much money coming in. We’re thinking about a little rebate, but the big thing we want to do is pay down debt,” Trump told reporters last month. Following those comments, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo, introduced a bill that would send rebate checks to Americans, similar to the stimulus checks that went out during the COVID-19 pandemic.”Like President Trump proposed, my legislation would allow hard-working Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump’s tariffs are returning to this country,” Hawley said in a statement. The legislation proposes $600 per eligible adult and dependent child (e.g. $2,400 for a family of four), while allowing for a larger credit if tariff revenue exceeds current projections for 2025.The payments would be reduced in phases for individuals who earn $75,000 or more, and joint filers with incomes exceeding $150,000. Noncitizens wouldn’t be eligible, according to the bill.Critics argue that tariff rebates would be fiscally irresponsible and risk increasing inflation.”A better way to provide relief would be to simply repeal the tariffs altogether,” wrote Alex Durante, senior economist at the Tax Foundation, in an analysis of the proposal. It’s not clear if the bill has the votes to pass in Congress, as several GOP senators have pushed back on the idea.

WASHINGTON —

The Trump administration is touting record tariff revenue as the president reshapes global trade, and there’s a growing debate in Washington about giving some of that money back to Americans in the form of rebate checks.

Let’s get the facts.

How much money are tariffs raising?

The U.S. government is currently bringing in about $30 billion in tariff revenue per month, a remarkable surge compared to recent years.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said last week that tariff revenues have reached more than $150 billion since Trump took office.

“This is making our country very rich and respected again,” Trump told reporters on Thursday.

Those numbers could soon grow. Additional import taxes on dozens of trading partners are set to take effect on Thursday, Aug. 7.

Where is that money coming from?

The White House has insisted that the cost of the tariffs will be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy.

But experts say it’s largely Americans who are paying up.

American businesses importing foreign goods pay import taxes to customs agents when those products cross the U.S. border. Those businesses then have a choice: absorb the added cost or pass it along to consumers.

“It’s still up in the air how much is going to be absorbed or swallowed by American businesses and importers versus passed on to American consumers. Probably a little bit of each,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab.

The Yale Budget Lab’s analysis of Trump’s updated tariff regime, taking effect Aug. 7, estimates it could amount to an average per-household income loss of $2,400 in 2025.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted at a press conference on Wednesday that while tariffs have started to show up in consumer prices, the overall impact on inflation remains unclear. He said the evidence so far suggests exporters “are paying a small portion,” while firms and retailers are “currently paying the bulk” of Trump’s tariffs.

“We know from surveys that firms feel they fully intend to pass this on to consumers. But, the reality is that in many cases, they may not be able to do so. So, I think we’ll have to observe and learn empirically how much of this is happening,” Powell said.

Will Americans get rebate checks?

It’s not clear yet, but the idea has gotten the attention of the president and one Republican senator.

“We have so much money coming in. We’re thinking about a little rebate, but the big thing we want to do is pay down debt,” Trump told reporters last month.

Following those comments, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo, introduced a bill that would send rebate checks to Americans, similar to the stimulus checks that went out during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Like President Trump proposed, my legislation would allow hard-working Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump’s tariffs are returning to this country,” Hawley said in a statement.

The legislation proposes $600 per eligible adult and dependent child (e.g. $2,400 for a family of four), while allowing for a larger credit if tariff revenue exceeds current projections for 2025.

The payments would be reduced in phases for individuals who earn $75,000 or more, and joint filers with incomes exceeding $150,000. Noncitizens wouldn’t be eligible, according to the bill.

Critics argue that tariff rebates would be fiscally irresponsible and risk increasing inflation.

“A better way to provide relief would be to simply repeal the tariffs altogether,” wrote Alex Durante, senior economist at the Tax Foundation, in an analysis of the proposal.

It’s not clear if the bill has the votes to pass in Congress, as several GOP senators have pushed back on the idea.