Every summer I spend one week taking a look at the NHL’s contract landscape. The best of the best, the worst of the worst and then the rest — a deep dive that ranks each team’s cap sheet.

That’s the goal of today’s exercise: figuring out every player’s market value over the remainder of his contract, comparing it to what he’s actually being paid and then figuring out the likelihood of the contract being a good deal. Then it’s put all together for each team to see which ones are spending money the most efficiently.

Luckily for everyone, the contract landscape has shifted drastically over the last year, thanks to massive cap jumps over the next three years. That means a lot of older contracts immediately look better in a new context, leaving a majority of the league in good shape. In previous years, half the league was getting more value than expected. This year, with a lot of long-term legacy contracts still on the books, that’s shifted to two-thirds of the league getting a good deal on average. For the purpose of this exercise, any team above average gets a B-grade or higher, but grade on a curve and just getting equal value isn’t good enough anymore. And getting negative value can put a team way behind.

None of this is set in stone either. Things change every year and that’s why this is an annual exercise, one that uses the same criteria as the best and worst contract articles. Each player is judged based on total surplus value (more term means more time for value to compound, for better or worse) and the likelihood of the deal being good. Both are based on every player’s future trajectory over the life of his contract which uses player comps to determine his likeliest path(s) forward.

How a player ages and how the cap increases are two of the biggest factors for this exercise, so keep that in mind. The rapidly escalating cap environment is an especially big factor when a 10 percent deal is worth $9.55 million next year, but could be worth as much as $14 million in seven or eight years. That means valuations for younger players will look a lot better than some might expect if it’s over a lengthy term. Keep in mind that all the model estimates listed below — whether you agree or not — are based on the future, not the past.

With all that being said, here’s how every team measures up.

The goal here is to grade contracts empirically with the same context being applied to each player across the league: how much value does each player bring to the table per year and over the life of the contract. The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s Net Rating and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract.

What players have already done holds no merit. This is about the future value of the deal with age effects based on player comps taken into account while accounting for expected salary growth. Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered with this assessment. Players on LTIR were not considered.

1. Tampa Bay Lightning

Last season: 13th

There’s a new No. 1 atop the contract efficiency rankings and it’s a potentially surprising one given where the Lightning stood last year. Perhaps I’m too high on them now or was too low on them a year ago. Either way, it’s worth looking at what’s changed since to drive the Lightning to the top spot.

First and foremost is the electric pairing of Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. As president of the Hagel fan club, even I would never have expected the leap he took last season into stardom, scoring 90 points. Cirelli’s own leap was also a big deal for the Lightning, giving the team two high-powered lines. Both players saw their market value shoot up $3 million per year relative to last season, a huge jump that obviously added a lot of surplus value given how much term both players have left. Combined, the duo’s unexpected ascent added $40 million to Tampa Bay’s bottom line.

What also helped is that two other core contracts also saw big improvement. Erik Cernak is back to looking like a $5 million defender while Andrei Vasilevskiy proved his 2023-24 struggles were purely a result of injury. He’s still got it and is back to a $9 million valuation.

Better depth (Jakob Pelletier and Pontus Holmberg) helps, too. But those are the driving forces.

Now, the Lightning have exactly zero problem contracts on the books but several solid deals, and their forward core is locked in at an incredible price. Between Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, Hagel and Cirelli, the Lightning are paying $40.8 million for $58.5 million of value.

That’s Tampa Bay’s superpower and it makes the Lightning one of the league’s scariest teams for the 2025-26 season and beyond.

2. Carolina Hurricanes

Last season: 4th

Only one team (the Florida Panthers) has more money locked in than Carolina, with both teams just under $500 million in future commitments. The difference is the relative age of everyone involved. Where Florida has a group of elite players exiting their primes, Carolina has a large group of very good players that are entering theirs. Essentially, anyone in their right mind would take Florida short-term, but in the long run there’s a point where that likely shifts to Carolina.

That’s primarily due to four pieces of the team’s forward core being locked up for the next seven years, led by franchise cornerstone Seth Jarvis. He has the league’s third-best contract and single-handedly creates much of Carolina’s surplus value. Not far behind though is Jackson Blake, recently signed for $5.1 million for eight years, starting after this one. Given what he showed already in his rookie season, that has high potential to be an incredibly savvy bet. The same could also be said for Logan Stankoven’s deal, though the model is a little less keen on that one. Sebastian Aho rounds out the group and while his annual surplus is more modest, it does add up.

Given the lack of track record for Blake and Stankoven in particular, some may view the deals as risky — they haven’t earned that number yet. In a sense, that’s true, and Carolina’s own experience with Jesperi Kotkaniemi is proof of that. But the rising cap environment changes the math on that considerably where the risk is much smaller for a player that’s also on the rise.

GM Eric Tulsky spoke to that effect at the press conference for Blake’s extension and his answer mirrors the entire ethos of this exercise. It’s not about one contract, it’s about all of them. The big picture.

“We’re sort of of the opinion that if we aggregate that risk and have a lot of players who we’re comfortable making bets on — yeah, one or two of them something is going to go wrong,” Tulsky said. “But on the whole, we’re going to come out ahead by staying aggressive and putting ourselves in position to get things done, keep our core locked up and leave ourselves room to keep adding around them.”

In a sense, it’s treating a team like a portfolio where buying early on upside doesn’t always pay off, but the odds are generally in your favor. Thanks to those four forward deals, Carolina’s portfolio looks great right now with an average positive value of 65 percent, one of the highest marks in the league. The team’s $99 million in expected surplus trails only Tampa Bay.

Not everything is perfect and some bets (K’Andre Miller) appear to carry more risk than others. Some bets will depend on age, like Jaccob Slavin, who is obviously better than a $7 million defenseman now but may not be in his late 30s. Still, the Hurricanes have put themselves in a very good spot and have a lot of cap space on top of that. They’ll be a contender for years to come.

3. Colorado Avalanche

Last season: 3rd

With Miles Wood out of the picture, the Avalanche no longer have any big problem contracts. Sure, the Brock Nelson and Josh Manson deals were slight overpays, but they were manageable ones on an otherwise great cap sheet.

That’s naturally driven by Nathan MacKinnon, a top three player in hockey signed for the next six seasons in a growing cap environment. At a time where players of his ilk will be providing $18 million of on-ice value or more, he’ll be making just $12.6 million. A steal. Just as large of a steal is the remaining two years of Cale Makar’s deal. Having the best defenseman in the world at just $9 million is incredible. Combine those two deals and it’s a gift Colorado can’t squander. The time to win is now.

That’s half of Colorado’s surplus value right there. The other half is mainly driven by contracts for Artturi Lehkonen, Devon Toews and MacKenzie Blackwood — the latter of which looks like one of the best long-term goalie contracts in the league. I don’t have a contract projection for Gabriel Landeskog, but if he can keep up what he showed during the playoffs, his deal is looking pretty good too.

While the Avalanche don’t have a lot of players locked up like Florida and Carolina, they make up for that to an extent with the quality of their short-term deals. No team has a better average positive value percentage than Colorado’s 67 percent.

4. Florida Panthers

Last season: 1st

The shocking thing for most people — myself included — is that the Panthers don’t rank first.

No one plays the cap efficiency game better than Florida and it can be argued that’s most of the reason the Panthers are back-to-back champions. That was especially clear over their last Cup run where the team won via incredible depth only made possible by their previous commitment to making good deals.

That starts at the very top with four of the absolute best deals in hockey for Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Gustav Forsling. The trio of forwards could easily command a deal somewhere between Mitch Marner and Leon Draisaitl and instead are all making $10 million or less. Gustav Forsling is a proven No. 1 defenseman making a pittance at just $5.75 million. Add deals for Aaron Ekblad and Anton Lundell to that mix and the Panthers are saving a ton of money on one of the league’s best cores for the next five seasons.

So why don’t the Panthers rank higher? It’s mostly because they’ve entered another realm which is all about maintenance with a goal of bringing the entire championship squad back. All that money saved on the core went directly towards making sure the services of Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand could be retained. Given the team’s win-now position, it was a necessary risk to run it back knowing the next 2-3 years are the most pivotal.

Neither Bennett nor Marchand took a discount and at some point it’s likely the Panthers will pay the price for it. There’s no way Marchand is playing until he’s 43, especially not at a $5.3 million level. It’s unlikely Bennett ages well either considering the kind of game he plays. But given their playoff acumen as two of the dawgiest dawgs that ever dawgged, giving both the bag was a necessary risk.

Someday those two deals might look bad, while the rest don’t shimmer quite as brightly — and that’s part of the disconnect. This exercise considers what Florida’s cap sheet might look like near the end of all these deals just as much as it considers what they look like now. The relative age of everyone compared to Carolina, for example, is part of the reason the Panthers aren’t No.1. Essentially, it’s balancing the fact that no team has better cap efficiency than Florida for the 2025-26 season with the likelihood that things won’t look this peachy in 2031.

All that matters is Florida has put itself in a fantastic position to win next season and beyond with its incredible cap efficiency. Flags fly forever and the Panthers have a real chance to fly another one or two. So who cares what the Marchand deal looks like five years from now?

5. Ottawa Senators

Last season: 17th

Hellooooooo, Ottawa. Welcome to the top five!

While I still have some reservations regarding Ottawa’s ultimate ceiling until someone emerges as an elite forward beyond the big two, it’s hard not to be optimistic about the future with a cap sheet like this.

For starters, Ottawa’s only problem contract is Dylan Cozens, an upside bet many would gladly take a flier on. David Perron being paid $4 million isn’t ideal, but with one year left, it’s fine. If those are Ottawa’s only issues, the team is in good shape.

More impressive are the plethora of strong deals, headlined by two of the league’s best contracts in Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson. That’s a potential franchise forward and franchise defenseman locked up for six and seven years at a combined $16.5 million. In terms of budding young talent, few teams can compare at that price. Add Brady Tkachuk to that mix and it’s a trio of A-grade deals that give Ottawa a real shot to contend over the next few years.

It’s not just the stars, though. It’s the plethora of good deals beyond them. Ridly Greig, Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux and Shane Pinto are effective top-six pieces coming in at a very cheap cost. Jordan Spence may not be as good as his analytics suggest, but at $1.5 million he’s an incredibly savvy bet by the Senators. Artem Zub, one of the league’s better shutdown defensemen, for two more years at $4.6 million ain’t shabby either.

The foundation is starting to take shape for the Senators to do big things, and that starts with one of the league’s most efficient cap outlooks.

6. Dallas Stars

Last season: 10th

The Stars have a fantastic cap sheet but fall just short of the top five. A big part of that is term, where the teams above them have more core pieces locked up for longer. Jason Robertson and Thomas Harley are both on incredible bridge deals that create massive value for the Stars for the 2025-26 season, but Dallas will have to pay up big for both in short order.

Considering Dallas’ track record with star contracts, there shouldn’t be much concern — just look at the value on deals for Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger. If deals for Robertson and Harley are anything like that, the Stars will shoot up this list next season. For now, there’s no certainty yet.

Mikko Rantanen’s deal is the exception for the core at the moment, though that’s mostly a byproduct of Rantanen looking off during the regular season after being traded twice. If he looks anything close to his playoff self going forward, the Stars will be just fine.

Aside from the two years left on Tyler Seguin’s deal and Ilya Lyubushkin, the Stars don’t have any problem contracts. Just nail the two key RFA extensions and the Stars are a top-five team next summer.

7. Vegas Golden Knights

Last season: 14th

The worst deal on Vegas’ cap sheet? That’s either overpaying Keegan Kolesar by $500,000 for the next three years or the $2.9 million owed to newcomer Colton Sissons this season when he’s probably closer to a $2 million player. And that’s it! Every other deal on the books is perfectly reasonable and when the worst deal is less than $1 million too much for a bottom-six player, it’s clear the team is doing something right.

Vegas is not in the business of making mistakes and it shows with the absolute cleanest cap sheet in the league. There’s a not a single contract here to be mad about and it leads to an average positive value percentage of 66 percent, top three in the league.

The reason Vegas sits outside the top five, though, is that the Golden Knights seem content hitting singles rather than swinging for home runs. Aside from Shea Theodore’s excellent deal, the Golden Knights don’t have a single other deal where they’re getting $10 million or more of surplus value.

An incredible volume of B-grade deals gets Vegas an overall A, but just two A grades keeps the Golden Knights away from A-plus territory with their contending peers.

8. Edmonton Oilers

Last season: 2nd

No team has more A-grade deals than the Oilers, who have six belonging to their top three forwards (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman) and their top three defensemen (Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm and Jake Walman). Add Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the mix and Edmonton is getting tremendous bang for its buck from the core. It’s why the Oilers are back-to-back Cup finalists.

There are two reasons the Oilers don’t rank higher despite that. The first is two major problem contracts in Darnell Nurse and Trent Frederic, both of which create a lot of negative long-term value that digs into the team’s total surplus. The other is the lack of term for some of their core guys. Compared to Carolina, Florida and Tampa Bay, the Oilers have significantly less money locked up in their most important players.

Draisaitl has one of the league’s best contracts, but it’s not just McDavid, Ekholm and Walman being on expiring deals that affects the final result. Only four years remaining for Nugent-Hopkins and Bouchard hurts the team’s ability to compound future value. Ditto for Hyman with three years left.

McDavid’s next deal is the big domino to fall and extending him would probably do a lot to get the Oilers another A-grade contract on the books. If rumors are true that his next cap hit will come in between $16 million to $17.5 million, it’ll be another hometown discount for the Oilers. The best player in the world in this cap climate has every right to be the league’s first $20 million player.

9. New Jersey Devils

Last season: 9th

The New Jersey Devils have the best contract in hockey in Jack Hughes. Thanks to his current level, the rising cap and the five years left on his deal, there is a massive chasm between Hughes’ worth and what he’s being paid: just $8 million for the next five years. In a similar vein, both Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier are steals at their current price tags. The Devils should be paying three forwards north of $10 million. Instead, they have all three under $8 million. That’s great work.

Most of New Jersey’s other deals are also pretty strong with a cheap deal for shutdown defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler being the best of the rest. But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows here and it’s what keeps New Jersey out of the top five (along with having less overall term than the top contenders). Ondrej Palat has next to no shot of being a $6 million forward anymore and he remains signed for the next two years, while Brenden Dillon looks like an extremely expensive No. 7 defenseman for the next two years.

There’s still room to grow for the Devils, but for now they remain a step behind the league’s best.

10. Winnipeg Jets

Last season: 12th

Even if he’s on the wrong side of 30 and plays a more volatile position, having the reigning MVP locked in at $8.5 million for the next six years is incredible value. So too is having a dark-horse Norris Trophy threat at $6.3 million for the next three years. Connor Hellebuyck and Josh Morrissey are not only a massive part of Winnipeg’s on-ice success, the surplus value on their deals have also helped Winnipeg build a very competitive team around them.

There are a few good deals littered throughout the roster with Gabriel Vilardi’s recent extension being a standout and the final year of Kyle Connor’s contract being a bargain. Up front, Mark Scheifele’s deal is the only ‘problem’ contract, mostly as a result of age. If last season was any indication, though, Jets fans don’t really have to worry.

Truthfully, there’s only one real problem contract here (well, aside from Jonathan Toews’ weird bonus-laden deal that I don’t have a projection for) and that’s Neal Pionk’s. Ideally, it would’ve been nice to see his contract flipped with Dylan Samberg’s, but given the defense market, it’s a palatable risk for Winnipeg. He solidifies the top four well.

11. Minnesota Wild

Last season: 19th

Finally, the onerous parts of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts are off the books and the Wild are flush with cap space and promise. With only one truly bad deal (Yakov Trenin) and a few great deals on the books, the Wild sit on the edge of the top 10.

Most of that is driven by Matt Boldy’s deal, which is one of the league’s best. But it also helps that Joel Eriksson Ek is a steal for the next four years to go along with three other one-year deals with a 90 percent chance of bringing positive value. Kirill Kaprizov is up for a new contract and we’ll see what happens there, but for now he’s one of the biggest bargains for the 2025-26 season.

That group, along with Filip Gustavsso,n is what drives Minnesota’s near top-10 placement, with everyone else’s deals being mostly fair.

12. Utah Mammoth

Last season: 7th

There’s a lot of Mammoth Mania around the league with many anticipating Utah to take a big step forward during the 2025-26 season. That optimism is shaped by a lot of great deals on the books and budding talent, headlined by Dylan Guenther who has one of the best contracts in hockey. Add Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev and Karel Vejmelka to that, plus Logan Cooley’s ELC, and the Mammoth are looking at a strong core at a pretty price for at least the next three seasons.

If we’re nitpicking, though, I’m not so sure about some of the value the Mammoth got this summer. JJ Peterka is a great player, but his point production arguably overstates his impact thanks to a weak defensive game. He’s a good add, but his contract isn’t very efficient and is significantly less so than the players Utah gave up in the deal. Brandon Tanev is pricey at $2.5 million at that term and I’m not convinced Jack McBain is a $4.25 million player just yet.

There’s a lot more good than bad here, but there’s a reason the Mammoth dropped out of the top 10 despite the optimism surrounding their future.

13. Detroit Red Wings

Last season: 24th

Things are finally starting to trend in the right direction for Detroit and that’s in large part thanks to the team locking up Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider long-term last year. While both entered each deal with some question marks, they proved themselves worthy of future franchise status, offering immense future value. Raymond is on one of the league’s best contracts and Seider’s deal has potential to be just as strong. I’d imagine both Marco Kasper and Simon Edvinsson will only add to this in the future.

As for Detroit’s problem contracts, many of them are thankfully ending soon. Ben Chiarot and Justin Holl only have one year left, while Andrew Copp only has two. The rest are manageable, and it’s what has Detroit’s future looking brighter.

14. Montreal Canadiens

Last season: 16th

The Canadiens are one of just two teams (Los Angeles is the other) with at least three A-grade contracts and three D-grade contracts. 

On the poor contract front, the good news is those deals are almost up and none were signed by current GM Kent Hughes. The Canadiens took a calculated swing on Patrik Laine and while he’s not worth $8.7 million, his power-play work was helpful last season. As for Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson, it’s tough to justify spending $12 million on two bottom-six players, but with only two years of term remaining the damage isn’t too bad.

On the great contract front, Montreal’s core is taking shape nicely. Nick Suzuki’s contract is now one of the best in the league as he’s blossomed into the No. 1 center many fans expected him to become. Juraj Slafkovský and Cole Caufield should have deals that age well and Sam Montembeault’s deal looks sneaky great given how strong he’s looked in each of the last three seasons.

That’s enough to be league-average, but the real fun will begin when new deals are needed for the team’s trio of ELCs. In a rising cap world I don’t know if it’s possible to overpay Lane Hutson on a long-term deal and I would guess a new deal instantly becomes one of the league’s best. Once he, Ivan Demidov and Zack Bolduc become part of the cap efficiency picture, expect Montreal to land in the top 10.

15. Toronto Maple Leafs

Last season: 8th

On average, Toronto generally gets a good deal and the Maple Leafs also rarely make bad deals. David Kampf is the current exception to that, but aside from him the team doesn’t have many true problem contracts. Some players are paid more than you’d prefer, yes, but the Leafs have limited disaster.

But there’s a big difference between the Leafs and the NHL’s contending class and that’s the lack of many great deals. The Panthers, Lightning and Hurricanes all sit in the league’s top five for contract efficiency while the Leafs sit closer to the middle. For a team with championship aspirations, that disparity is not ideal.

To Toronto’s credit, few if any teams are getting better value in net than Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. And in a summer where many other teams overspent, few got better deals than the ones the Leafs got on John Tavares and Matthew Knies. But there’s just not enough value elsewhere.

Auston Matthews led the pack last season even at $13.3 million, but a sharp downturn last season, thanks to injuries, pushed his contract into B-territory. Worse is William Nylander’s deal, one that any Leafs fan would gladly take, but also one that doesn’t compare as favorably to other franchise winger contracts.

Toronto’s biggest issue is age, particularly on defense. On the surface, deals for Jake McCabe, Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brandon Carlo and even Morgan Rielly look more than fair for the upcoming season and maybe even the year after. But it’s beyond where the value looks sketchier given the age of everyone involved.

That leaves Toronto in a precarious position where the Leafs are deep in win-now mode, but likely don’t have the roster to pull it off.

16. Buffalo Sabres

Last season: 18th

Buffalo is in a good spot with its top nucleus of Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson, both of whom are paid $3 million less than they’re worth for seven and five years respectively. That’s a strong starting point to build around, aided by some other solid deals. There’s a trio of valuable ELCs, great cap hits for Alex Tuch and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and also some savvy work this summer (Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn, Justin Danforth, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins and Alex Lyon).

What the Sabres need now is for their defense to round into form. Mattias Samuelsson needs to stay healthy and get back to the player he was two years ago, Bowen Byram needs to clean things up without the puck and most importantly, Owen Power needs to take a sizeable step forward. It’s Power’s growth that will dictate Buffalo’s success as the Sabres need him to be truly top-pair-caliber and not just top-four-worthy. The Sabres made a big bet on the player Power would be in the future — he needs to start holding up his end of the bargain.

17. Columbus Blue Jackets

Last season: 32nd

After finishing last in these rankings last summer, the Blue Jackets took a major step forward after a surprisingly strong season. Zach Werenski deserves a ton of credit for being the team’s engine from the back end and turning into a Norris-worthy defender. He’s become a steal at $9.6 million for the next three seasons.

Also worthy of credit is the team’s blossoming young stars. Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson, Dmitri Voronkov and Yegor Chinakhov all took major steps as legitimate top-six talents and the Blue Jackets have all of them at a great price. Add a career-best season from Sean Monahan and a savvy waiver pickup (and subsequent extension) in Dante Fabbro, and things suddenly look promising in Columbus.

Which is what makes a lot of the team’s summer work so disappointing. I’m not big on Charlie Coyle and felt the price to acquire him was utterly exorbitant if it meant also adding Miles Wood’s deal. Worse yet was the Ivan Provorov deal which immediately looks among the league’s worst.

The Blue Jackets have a lot of cap space and it may have seemed reckless to let Provorov walk, opening up a big hole in the top four. But after seeing what Fabbro was able to do for them off waivers, it could be argued it was more reckless to spend on an inefficient name-brand talent. The Provorov mistake is one the team didn’t have to make; it felt like desperate impatience.

Without that deal, the Blue Jackets would’ve landed in the top 10 — a strong signifier of a very bright future. The Provorov deal puts a damper in that, potentially limiting flexibility in the future. With two years or less of term remaining for Marchenko, Johnson, Voronkov, Chinakhov and Adam Fantilli, it’s not a risk I would’ve taken.

18. Los Angeles Kings

Last season: 11th

In just one offseason, Ken Holland has undone a tremendous amount of the good work the Kings were building toward. The Kings dropped from 11th to 18th in one year, primarily the result of signing Corey Perry, Joel Armia, Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci — immediately the worst deals on the team. Without those signings, the Kings would’ve ranked eighth. Woof.

At least the forward group is almost entirely signed to reasonable rates, headlined by emerging star Quinton Byfield. The Mikey Anderson deal is exceptional too. But everything good is almost entirely from the previous regime. The grass isn’t always greener and the red marks on the cap sheet above are proof of that.

19. St. Louis Blues

Last season: 30th

At long last, the war between the Blues and Dom’s model is (momentarily) over: Colton Parayko’s contract is fair value. Hooray!

After how well he played last year some will naturally say Parako’s market value is still too low, but as usual it’s the age and term that create some risk there. If he keeps up what he showed under Jim Montgomery and next to Cam Fowler, though, that risk is mitigated.

Everything changed for the Blues once Montgomery was hired and the team acquired Fowler, enough to push St. Louis from one of the league’s worst cap sheets towards average. There’s still work to do, but there’s a lot more good than bad these days.

Chief among those are Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg’s offer-sheet deals, both of which literally could not have panned out better. The Blues stole them away for a combined cap hit of $6.6 million and their expected value for 2025-26 has risen to $16 million. There’s a good chance extensions for both come well below that combined figure too.

Things are looking up in St. Louis, and it does help to have Robert Thomas on one of the league’s best deals. One of the best young centers in hockey at $8.1 million for the next six years? Smooth.

20. Washington Capitals

Last season: 28th

After a surprise division-winning season, the Capitals have moved up the rankings with an overall decent outlook. They may rank 20th, but the team is getting good value on the whole and has a solid foundation to build off of.

Washington’s biggest win is the Aliaksei Protas deal. He’s turned into a formidable top-six talent and is worth a lot more than $3.4 million. Another year or two of term and he would’ve threatened the best contracts list. Logan Thompson’s extension looks pretty strong as well — if he can return to his first-half form.

There are other wins at the bottom in relative terms. Pierre-Luc Dubois went from one of the worst contracts in the league to worth the money in just one year. Tom Wilson came close himself after his top-line breakthrough. Though his age and physical profile are still concerns overall, his leap to genuine stardom last year was enough to make him worth the money in the short term. Proving last year was no fluke would help push Wilson further up in next year’s edition.

It’s not all rosy, though, as Washington made big commitments on its back end at a markup. It’s possible both Jakob Chychrun and Martin Fehervary grow into their high cap hits, but I’m not a big fan of either at those prices.

21. Pittsburgh Penguins

Last season: 22nd

For a team on the precipice of a rebuild, the Penguins actually have a pretty clean cap sheet. Ryan Graves and Tristan Jarry have rough contracts with term, but neither are nearly as damaging as some of the ones on the league’s worst outfits. Erik Karlsson’s deal also qualifies, though his is likely easily movable with retention.

Up front, the Penguins aren’t paying a lot, but they’re at least getting decent value for what they’re spending. That’s led by the team’s trio of top-line talents: Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust and Sidney Crosby. All three are on excellent deals — which could pose a problem for a team attempting to bottom out.

22. Vancouver Canucks

Last season: 5th

There were a few people who wondered about Quinn Hughes’ deal when the best contracts list dropped, and the only reason for the omission was the term remaining. His 99.8 percent positive value probability is one of the highest marks in the league, enough to deliver nearly $12 million of surplus over the next two years alone.

That’s given all back with the team’s pricey extension for Kevin Lankinen, which now makes even less sense after the team gave Thatcher Demko $8.5 million on a three-year deal. Investing in goaltending is fine, and Demko does have injury concerns, but the total cost should’ve probably been closer $10-11 million total, not $13 million.

Vancouver’s biggest problem at the moment is the play of Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser, neither of whom look to be worth the money after last year’s effort. With seven years remaining for both, those two are Vancouver’s biggest bets and the entire contention window depends on that duo being worth the money. For now, neither looks the part after a down year and it’s helped push the Canucks to the league’s bottom half.

23. Calgary Flames

Last season: 20th

MacKenzie Weegar has one of the best deals in hockey and wasn’t far off the top 10 contracts list. Dustin Wolf, after establishing himself with a phenomenal rookie season, also creates a lot of surplus value for the Flames. Add the new Matt Coronato deal to that and the Flames have a solid base of deals to work with.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t do enough to offset having Jonathan Huberdeau’s league-worst deal on the books, and Kevin Bahl’s strange new deal on top of that. If not for those two, the Flames might actually be in decent shape. But those two losses are too big to come back from and still be league-average.

24. New York Rangers

Last season: 6th

The Adam Fox deal remains one of the best in the league, but with only four years left, it feels like the Rangers are going to squander it. The rest of the team’s cap sheet looks far from ideal, with William Borgen’s puzzling extension being the current biggest question mark. He needs to be at least a No. 4, but looks closer to a No. 6.

Part of the issue is simply the result of aging, where players like Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck and Mika Zibanejad all took a step back in 2024-25. Trocheck’s deal still looks worthwhile — it’s just not the big win it seemed to be this time last year. Adding J.T. Miller, 32, to the core only adds to the risk.

Superstar goalie Igor Shesterkin, who turns 30 in December, isn’t exactly young either and that’s the risk with his new eight-year deal. I expect he’ll bounce back after a tepid season by his standards, which would increase his value. For now, he’s on the wrong side of the ledger.

The wild card of all this is with Alexis Lafrenière. He didn’t take the leap many expected after a strong showing in the 2024 playoffs and doesn’t look like a $7.5 million player as a result. If that leap finally comes during the 2025-26 season, it can help offset some of the age concerns from the rest of the core.

25. Boston Bruins

Last season: 15th

It should be difficult for a team to land this low with a contract as good as David Pastrnak’s, but the Bruins have seemingly made it a mission over the last two offseasons.

Trading for Casey Mittelstadt, Andrew Peeke and Joonas Korpisalo has hurt the bottom line at all three positions. Signing Elias Lindholm, Tanner Jeannot and Nikita Zadorov only inflicted more pain on top of that, with the recent Jeannot deal being the most egregious.

It’s possible that bounce-backs (and good health) from Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm can get things back on track. And the model already expects that for Jeremy Swayman thanks to his age. But the Bruins have inflicted too much damage on themselves otherwise to expect this to be an above-average cap sheet going forward.

26. Philadelphia Flyers

Last season: 25th

If you assume Carey Price is going on LTIR, there is only one team with a higher cap expenditure than the Philadelphia Flyers for next season: the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. It is baffling that the rosters for the Panthers and Flyers cost roughly the same amount of money, which speaks to the importance of an exercise like this. Cap efficiency is one of the big gaps between champions and this.

For the Flyers, there is an issue with inefficient spending — especially in net — creating deals with a low likelihood of panning out. Sean Couturier’s deal aging poorly is mostly out of the team’s control. But the bigger issue is that the team just doesn’t have any major wins on the books. Philadelphia’s best contract is Tyson Foerster, who’s on a bridge deal. It’s not good enough.

That can change with a max-term extension for Matvei Michkov when the time comes, but until then there’s not enough to love here to move out from the bottom third.

27. San Jose Sharks

Last season: 31st

As expected with one of the league’s worst teams, a lot of folks don’t look like they’ll be good value. San Jose doesn’t have a lot of bad money on the books thanks to a lot of expensive short-term bets, but what the Sharks are paying for isn’t likely to be worth the price. The 38 percent positive value probability is among the league’s lowest, driven mostly by having a lot of poor players. That the Sharks willingly claimed Barclay Goodrow on waivers remains a mystery to this day.

There’s a light at the end of the tunnel, though, and that starts with the recent bridge deals for William Eklund and Yaroslav Askarov. Both are expected to be big future pieces and while it would’ve been nice if both were signed long-term, they’ll likely provide excellent value in the short term.

The real big win will happen whenever Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith sign. If San Jose can sign both for max term after their ELCs expire, it wouldn’t be a shock to see one or both land on the best contracts list in a couple years.

28. Anaheim Ducks

Last season: 29th

With Mason McTavish still left to sign and a lot of Ducks on ELCs, there’s a strong chance that Anaheim’s outlook will change significantly over the next few years. Add a new coach to the mix and it wouldn’t be a shock to see a lot of deals look better next summer.

That doesn’t change the fact that there’s still a lot of tough money on the books. Mikael Granlund is partly forgivable because the Ducks needed talent and had a lot of cap space, but that signing also represents a trend of paying too much for the wrong players. Deals for Alex Killorn and Ryan Strome are proof of that. Yes, there’s a bad-team tax that’s difficult to avoid. But it doesn’t mean overspending on one-dimensional complimentary players that don’t really move the needle.

Part of it feels like a player evaluation issue where I’m still not sure how exactly they took on the full freight of Jacob Trouba’s deal without any sweetener to do so.

The good news is there’s not a lot of term left on the bad deals, and the new deal for Lukas Dostal (whose age is what drives his high market value) adds enough surplus value to make up for it. But there’s still too many bad deals that look unlikely to pan out. Anaheim’s average positive value percentage of 36 percent is the second-lowest in the league.

29. New York Islanders

Last season: 23rd

One reason to be optimistic about the Islanders next year is a healthy Mathew Barzal. Despite a lack of production, he was showing a level of five-on-five dominance that suggested big things were coming. He’s grown nicely into his big deal and his contract is easily the Islanders’ best. 

The other piece of good news: almost every deal signed by new GM Mathieu Darche has been on the right side of the ledger. Even Alexander Romanov’s deal looks fine amidst the landscape of other defense contracts signed this summer.

The issue is that there’s some leftover baggage from Lou Lamoriello, who made some long bets on aging vets where it’s now time to pay the piper. The twin seven-year extensions for Pierre Engvall and Scott Mayfield were a mistake at the time and look worse now.

On top of that, though, there just aren’t a lot of big wins on the books. The Islanders are one of just four teams without an A-grade contract. This franchise needs to start signing some home-run deals. At the very least, they do look like they’re in better hands with Darche to make it happen.

30. Nashville Predators

Last season: 21st

No team is expected to spend more for less than the Predators, whose total surplus value comes in at minus-$63 million. All of that is a result of some awful long-term bets that immediately aged poorly. Nashville’s huge 2024 offseason looks cataclysmic just one year later  — and this summer’s strange Nicolas Hague deal only added insult to injury.

Steven Stamkos is not an $8 million forward and saw his value immediately tank away from Tampa Bay. Brady Skjei is not a $7 million defenseman and saw his value immediately tank away from Carolina. Both players thrived as supporting stars, but failed in Nashville where they were expected to offer more on their own. Both contracts are among the league’s worst.

A big bet from that same summer that’s blown up in the team’s face that has flown under the radar, though, is the one Nashville made on Juuse Saros. Goalies are always tricky and Saros could easily bounce back next season, but it still felt risky at the time to make a big commitment for his age 30-38 seasons when the team had Yaroslav Askarov ready to go. One year later, Saros’ stock has fallen heavily — enough to consider his contract one of the worst goalie deals in the league given his age and recent output.

The Predators could look a lot better with some epic bounce-backs and it’s telling that neither Filip Forsberg nor Roman Josi have dropped from A-grade contracts themselves. If they can get back to their usual level, things could look up.

But it’s the age of everyone involved that makes Nashville’s situation so treacherous. Any potential bounce-back, if this team even gets it, will likely only offer short-term relief.

31. Chicago Blackhawks

Last season: 27th

It’s difficult to really judge Chicago’s scorched-earth cap sheet after how dismal last season was. Even 2023-24 bright spot Alex Vlasic regressed heavily and looked like a shadow of himself, enough to put his seemingly decent contract when signed on the wrong side of the ledger. Chicago is at such a toxic extreme that it seeps into every player’s value across the board. Are these players really that bad on their own, or is it just an impossible environment to thrive in?

It’s probably a little bit of both. At the very least, we do know there have been some questionable decisions over the last few years. Paying over $4 million for both Jason Dickinson and Nick Foligno was way too much, and taking Andre Burakovsky’s bloated contract for free looks like a misstep.

If the rebuild progresses this season, there’s a lot of great future value on the way once the team’s ELCs turn into valuable RFA deals. A lack of lengthy commitments also helps. But for now, there’s a lot that’s not working throughout the lineup and no major wins to point towards. Like the on-ice product, it’s a large pile of Ls.

32. Seattle Kraken

Last season: 26th

Here’s the best way I can describe how bad Seattle’s cap sheet looks. If you used the remainder of Seattle’s cap space ($7 million) and added another million bucks with careful accounting to add the league’s best contract, Jack Hughes at $8 million, you still wouldn’t have a playoff team. What exactly is this team paying for if it’s not even getting mediocrity?

Countless free-agent gaffes have added up over time to the point that the Kraken are spending nearly $35 million on the following core of players: Chandler Stephenson, Jaden Schwartz, Brandon Montour, Adam Larsson, Jamie Oleksiak, Ryan Lindgren and Philipp Grubauer. You’ve heard the old adage that you can’t build a winner through free agency? Well, if you also overpay each free agent, you can’t even build average, apparently. That’s where the Kraken stand.

The Joey Daccord deal is really nice (by goalie standards, anyway) and if Matty Beniers ever learns how to score he’ll have a nice contract too. But almost the entire rest of the roster is paying so much for mid that the team just ends up bad. The Kraken have a lot of work cut out for them.

—Data via Cap Wages

(Photo of Victor Hedman and Nico Sturm: Mike Carlson / Getty Images)