President Trump announced Thursday that he had ordered a rare, mid-decade census to exclude illegal immigrants — as a gerrymandering war between Republicans and Democrats heats up.
“I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS.”
President Trump wants the Census Bureau to skip illegal immigrants when doing the next national headcount. Xinhua/Shutterstock
The Constitution stipulates that apportionment of congressional districts “shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons,” which most scholars interpret as requiring the federal government to count legal and illegal immigrants as well as natural-born Americans.
Currently, the US Census Bureau “collects data from all foreign-born who participate in its censuses and surveys, regardless of legal status.”
The decennial counts are critical for determining how the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are allocated. Every decade after a census is completed, states undergo a redistricting process in which they determine the boundaries of their congressional districts.
The Constitution requires a census every 10 years, but there have been rare occasions, such as the 1970s, when mid-decade national headcounts were pursued. In most cases, such as the 1975 attempt, the effort for a mid-decade count was dropped.
Trump’s order for a mid-decade census is likely to face legal challenges from Democrats. In the past, attempts at inter-decennial headcounts were authorized by Congress, not by presidents unilaterally.
During his first administration, Trump attempted to add a citizenship question to the census, but the Commerce Department scrapped the idea after legal setbacks.
The last census, conducted in 2020, undercounted the population significantly in many red states like Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas, while overcounting in many blue states like Delaware, Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island.
Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas gained House seats following the 2020 census, while California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia lost seats.
The apportionment changes on balance boosted Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
Vice President JD Vance is set to discuss redistricting during his trip to Indiana on Thursday. REUTERS
But now both parties are revisiting the redistricting process — about half a decade earlier than usual — as Trump looks for ways to overcome historical headwinds and maintain the GOP’s razor-thin House majority.
Last month, at Trump’s behest, Texas Republicans began taking steps toward reconfiguring the state’s congressional map to potentially squeeze out five more seats for the GOP in 2026.
Texas Democrats foiled that plan — for now — by fleeing the state in the middle of a special session to block Republicans from passing the new map.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has fought to push through a new congressional map to boost Republicans in the 2026 midterms. AP
Blue-state officials, including those in California, New York and elsewhere, have since threatened to overhaul their congressional maps in response — even though California’s constitutional specifically outlaws mid-decade redistricting.
That’s led Republicans to float the possibility of changing the map in red states like Missouri and Indiana, the latter of which was visited by Vice President JD Vance Thursday.
The party that holds the White House has lost seats in all but two midterm elections since 1938 — with 1998 and 2002 the lone exceptions.
Trump is desperately looking to avoid that fate, as Democratic control of Congress will dramatically diminish his power and all but guarantee an onslaught of investigations during his final two years in office.