Alex Hunter breaks down Sunday’s WNBA matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and the Atlanta Dream and gives his pick for the game.
The Mercury are hosting the Dream on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by four points and this game presents a total of 165.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup between the Mercury and the Dream and give a pick for the game.
Mercury vs. Dream preview, prediction
The Mercury and Dream both boast 19-11 records this season. Sunday marks the third matchup between these two teams this season and the first two contests were one-sided affairs with Atlanta winning both contests by double-digits. Most recently, the Dream blew out the Mercury by 23 points on Aug. 1st, despite both Rhyne Howard (knee) and Brittney Griner (neck) being inactive for Atlanta.
This time around, both Howard and Griner have been upgraded to questionable and could make their returns Sunday. Howard was named to her third All-Star team this season, thanks to 16.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. The 25-year-old has missed 10 games in a row, but Howard was expected to remain out until at least the end of July, so her returning Sunday matches up with her projected timeline and feels likely.
As for Griner, her return would be less impactful. She ranks second-to-last in plus/minus for the Dream this season and Atlanta’s frontcourt has played well with Griner sidelined, with Brionna Jones sliding over to center. The Dream have won each of the last three games Griner has missed and each victory has been by at least 13 points. While it is unlikely given she is a nine-time All-Star, Atlanta should consider bringing Griner off the bench instead of starting her if she returns Sunday.
The Mercury have struggled against the Dream this season, but Phoenix enters Sunday’s matchup in great form. The club is coming off a 35-point blowout win over the Fever, marking the Mercury’s third win in a row. Each of these past three victories have been by at least 16 points and Alyssa Thomas has been brilliant with a triple-double in all three of these games. The 33-year-old’s incredible recent play has put her in the MVP conversation, as Thomas carries the second-best odds to win the award at +280 on DraftKings Sportsbook. If the veteran can continue to flourish Sunday, Phoenix will be in a great position to secure its first win over Atlanta this season.
Mercury vs. Dream pick, best bet
With the Mercury thriving right now and at home Sunday, where the club is 11-4 this season, Phoenix should defeat this Dream team that could be discombobulated if Griner returns. Atlanta is only 9-7 on the road this season and the Mercury are a strong bet to cover this four-point spread. This season, Phoenix is 17-13-0 ATS.