NASCAR’s past, and its many ghosts, is often a way for fans to connect — with each other and with their own past.
Sometimes, nostalgia is a reason to watch, to share the sport with someone else. It’s about people and stories and memories.
But a closer look at history also gives a window into the present … and sometimes the view is the beach side, and sometimes it just overlooks the dumpster.
There has been a recent upswell among fans for changing, if not scrapping altogether, the current playoff system. The arguments are sound: the current system and its emphasis on an entire season riding on three-race elimination rounds and a one-race title makes today’s title, through absolutely no fault of the drivers who win it, look less than what their predecessors won.
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Maybe the eliminations are exciting, at least in the moment, but it’s unfortunate when a driver who was clearly the class of the field doesn’t even make the final cut because of one or two poorly-timed misfortunes. It’s equally disappointing when a driver whose season was good but not great is rewarded with the title over one who was great.
NASCAR points to the excitement leading up to the playoffs and the idea that anyone can make it in at the 11th hour as something to spice up the dog days of summer. With just two races left to decide this year’s field, especially with one of them being at Daytona International Speedway — where survival trumps skill too much of the time — there is a chance for another driver or two to sneak in via a win either Saturday night, Aug. 16, at Richmond Raceway or next weekend at Daytona.
NASCAR would like fans to believe that the last couple of weeks in the regular season are akin to the Wild West, where chaos will reign and a dark horse will burst onto the scene to claim a last-minute playoff berth. It’s played up like it happens every year.
But does it? Is it statistically likely that somebody outside of the current 16 playoff contenders will steal a spot away?
The answer is no.
History tells us that it’s a possibility, but it’s just as likely not to happen. In the 11 seasons under the current playoff format, the 16-driver field has changed in the last two weeks five times. In the other six years, the field after race No. 24 was the field after race No. 26.
But wait — NASCAR has run the final race of the regular season at Daytona since 2020. Surely that upped the odds of a last-minute winner. Percentage-wise, it did, but only slightly. In five years, three new winners have appeared at Daytona, including 2024, when it was the second-to-last regular-season contest.
2024 is the only year in which two playoff spots changed hands in the final two weeks with new winners in both races (Harrison Burton won at Daytona and Chase Briscoe won the finale at Darlington Raceway). There is a small twist on last year’s final two weeks in that Austin Dillon won at Richmond but was removed from the playoffs for intentionally wrecking two drivers to get to victory lane. In reality, all Dillon’s ineligibility did was prolong one driver’s playoff hopes, but it did create a third change to the contenders with two races left if you want to look at it that way.
Here’s a rundown of when and how spots changed hands in the final two weeks of the regular season.
2014
Kasey Kahne won the second-to-last race of the regular season at Atlanta Motor Speedway to earn a spot. Clint Bowyer, without a win on the year, fell out of the running based on points. Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Ryan Newman got in on points despite not having wins.
2019
Bowyer outpoints Daniel Suarez in the last two weeks to claim the final spot.
2020
William Byron won the finale at Daytona after avoiding (or triggering, tomato, tomahto …) a multicar crash in the final laps. He ousted Jimmie Johnson in Johnson’s final season as a full-time driver.
2022
Dillon laid a bumper to Austin Cindric for a last-chance win at Daytona. NASCAR didn’t find the move as egregious as his 2024 Richmond effort, so he squeaked in under the wire. He didn’t technically bump anyone, as an injury forced Kurt Busch to withdraw from the playoffs. So Busch was the driver whose spot Dillon took over. Had Dillon not won, Martin Truex Jr. would have taken the final spot on points.
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2024
For the first time, two new winners in the last two races changed the picture. With Burton’s victory at Daytona and Briscoe’s in the finale, Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace saw their playoff hopes slip away in the final weeks.
Like everything else, there are two sides to the story. NASCAR is right that someone can pull off a win in the next two races that changes everything for both himself and the driver he replaces. If that happens, fans will remember it in the coming years for what it was: a moment of drama that changed things up. There’s anticipation that something big could happen, and that’s real.
But don’t mistake the possibility for a foregone conclusion that the field will be different in two weeks than it is right now. Historically, there’s about a 50-50 chance. The past tells us that there’s probably as much hype as substance to the buildup.
Either way, someone’s favorite driver will run for a title, at least for a little while, and someone else’s will watch from the outside. That’s always been the way, really, even under a full-season format.
History sometimes reminds us of the past, good and bad. But it can also bring out the truth about the present, pleasant or not. Either way, it’s worth the time for a comparison.
Amy is an 20-year veteran NASCAR writer and a six-time National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA) writing award winner, including first place awards for both columns and race coverage. As well as serving as Photo Editor, Amy writes The Big 6 (Mondays) after every NASCAR Cup Series race. She can also be found working on her bi-weekly columns Holding A Pretty Wheel (Tuesdays) and Only Yesterday (Wednesdays). A New Hampshire native whose heart is in North Carolina, Amy’s work credits have extended everywhere from driver Kenny Wallace’s website to Athlon Sports. She can also be heard weekly as a panelist on the Hard Left Turn podcast that can be found on AccessWDUN.com’s Around the Track page.