The Phoenix Mercury are in the middle of a four-day stretch with no games, with a chance to rest, recover, and gear up for one final push before the playoffs start in a month. The team is currently 19-12, their best record since the 2021 team that lost in the WNBA Finals, and have looked like genuine title contenders at times this year. Once the playoffs start, though, season-long trends go out the window and it all comes down to matchups.
A quick look at that 2021 season shows just how quickly things can change once the postseason begins. That year’s Finals featured the Mercury, who had the league’s fifth-best record, and the WNBA champion Chicago Sky (led in scoring by Kahleah Copper), who were sixth in the league after playing .500 ball, but went on to lose just two games in the entire playoffs. As is the case with every team, Phoenix’s postseason run could depend heavily on who they match up with.
With 13 games to go, Phoenix is within a stone’s throw of second place (the Atlanta Dream and New York Liberty are tied at 20-11, just one game ahead of the Mercs) while also only being a game and a half ahead of fifth (the Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever are tied at 18-14) and three games above the seventh-place Golden State Valkyries. While it’s almost certain the Mercury will make the playoffs, it’s within the realm of possibility for them to be matched up against nearly anybody in the first round. For now, I’ll only be looking at potential matchups against teams currently in playoff position, so I’ve left out the Los Angeles Sparks and Washington Mystics.
Worst matchups
Jul 16, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Lynx guard Courtney Williams (10) goes to the basket against Phoenix Mercury guard Kitija Laksa (9) in the first quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images
Minnesota
It almost goes without saying, but nobody wants to see the Minnesota Lynx in the first round. They have both the league’s best offense and the league’s best defense, they’re led by the MVP frontrunner, their point differential is nearly twice as good as anyone else’s, and they’re six and a half games ahead of everyone in the standings. Phoenix has beaten them once, but this is a matchup to avoid. Luckily, Phoenix would only have to play them in a disaster scenario, as they have a good cushion between them and eighth place.
Atlanta
Things can change in the playoffs, when teams employ gameplans tailor-made for specific opponents, but this feels like a bad matchup for the Mercury. They lost all three games to Atlanta this season, who didn’t have a fully healthy Rhyne Howard for any of those games, and only had Brittney Griner in the starting lineup for one. Atlanta’s the only team in the league the Mercury haven’t beaten this season.
Best Matchups
Jul 14, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Valkyries forward Kayla Thornton (5) controls the ball between Phoenix Mercury guard DeWanna Bonner (14) and forward Alyssa Thomas (25) during the fourth quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images / Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images
Golden State
Phoenix might have to move up in the standings a bit to draw Golden State, which would be a good sign in and of itself. The Valkyries can be tough to play against at times. They’re a smart and well-coached team that defends well, but they just don’t have the offensive firepower to win a playoff matchup against a team as talented as Phoenix.
Seattle Storm
The Storm should have been one of the league’s dark horse contenders this year, but have been way off lately. They’re on a five-game losing streak right now and have dropped seven of their last 10. There’s a bunch of talent there, but they it hasn’t coalesced the way they hoped. They have actually beaten Phoenix twice this season, but the two wins came in the season’s first three games against a Mercury group that had never played together before.
Indiana Fever
The Fever seem to have a point guard injury epidemic going on, which does not bode well for them heading into the playoffs. They’re still a dangerous team and have found plenty of ways to win games without Caitlin Clark, but it’s hard to expect a team to win in the playoffs if they’re still missing Clark, Sydney Colson, and Aari McDonald, who are all currently out. In the last matchup between the two teams, Phoenix absolutely blew them out too.
Somewhere in between
Phoenix Mercury forward Satou Sabally (0) is defended by Las Vegas Aces guard Tiffany Mitchell (3) during the third quarter at PHX Arena Jun 29, 2025. / Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Las Vegas Aces
The Aces have endured a challenging and frustrating year, but may have righted the ship after an embarrassing 111-58 blowout loss to the Lynx. They’ve won their last four, they always find ways to play Phoenix tough, and they’re led by A’ja Wilson, the best player in the league. It’s a matchup Phoenix should win, but one that should still be tough.
New York Liberty
Drawing the Liberty in the first round would mean that something has gone awry during the season’s final stretch, but the defending champs are actually a decent matchup for the Mercury. Phoenix is 2-1 against New York this season and the Liberty have struggled mightily with turnovers throughout the season series. They’ve also been a bit off their game lately and have won just five of their last 10, even picking up a loss to the league-worst Connecticut Sun.
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