One key basketball prediction already has Will Wade and Jon Scheyer’s programs playing second fiddle. Despite both coaches building talented rosters for 2025-26, they see another ACC team rising to the top.

With the 2025-26 college basketball season quickly approaching, why does this analyst doubt the NC State Wolfpack and the Duke Blue Devils? Who will overtake them?

Why Did Terrence Oglesby Pick Louisville Over Duke and NC State?

Basketball analyst Terrence Oglesby released his early ACC predictions for 2025-26, putting Louisville first ahead of Duke and NC State. The ranking shows how close the race will be between top programs as they build their rosters for next season.

Oglesby posted his “way too early” ACC prediction on social media, ranking Duke second and NC State third behind a surprising team — Louisville.

While Wade’s NC State and Scheyer’s Duke both have talented rosters, Louisville’s mix of experienced players and new additions gives them a slight advantage in this early forecast.

What Challenges Do Duke and NC State Face Despite Their Talent?

Duke brings in the best recruiting class in the country with Cameron Boozer leading the way. Scheyer landed elite talent after reaching the Final Four, with freshman Boozer already seen as a top 2026 NBA Draft pick, along with his twin brother Cayden.

However, Duke’s challenge comes from losing their entire starting lineup to the NBA Draft and relying heavily on freshmen. The team will be one of the youngest in college basketball, which raises questions about consistency and leadership in crucial moments despite their elite talent level.

Meanwhile, NC State has strong pieces with star transfer Darrion Williams from Texas Tech and veteran additions like Tre Holloman and Terrance Arceneaux. Wade came with big goals, saying, “Fair expectations are to finish in the top four of the ACC and go to the NCAA tournament, and have a chance to advance in the NCAA tournament.”

But NC State’s challenge comes from building team chemistry with mostly new players in Wade’s first year. While the talent level is high, integrating a completely new roster creates uncertainty about immediate chemistry. First-year systems typically need time to develop into championship-level teams.

How Does Louisville’s Roster Construction Give Them an Edge?

Louisville went 27-8 overall and 18-2 in the ACC during Pat Kelsey’s first season, finishing tied for second in the conference. The Cardinals reached their first-ever ACC Tournament championship game and returned to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.

Kelsey built on that foundation by bringing in proven players Isaac McKneely and Ryan Conwell and five-star recruit Mikel Brown Jr. According to 247Sports, he assembled the top transfer portal class while keeping the core team together.

RELATED: Pat Kelsey Breaks Down Role of 4 Louisville Players Who Will Help ‘Cushion’ Mikel Brown Jr.’s Freshman Year

This approach gives Louisville everything needed for a championship run. The Cardinals have both returning players like J’Vonne Hadley and Kasean Pryor, who know the system, and new talent that fills specific roles. This creates a roster built for immediate success rather than long-term development.

Louisville’s advantage comes from having established team chemistry plus top new players. This gives the Cardinals a clear edge over teams like Duke and NC State that are still putting together completely new rosters, making Louisville the early favorite in what should be a competitive ACC season.