A panel of Arizona health experts highlighted the way Medicaid cuts are expected to hit Arizonans in and out of the program at a roundtable hosted by Democratic Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly on Thursday.

A federal bill, labeled the One Big Beautiful Bill by President Donald Trump, was signed into law on July 4 and will cause more than $800 billion of Medicaid cuts over the next decade.

Arizona’s Medicaid agency is called the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System, or AHCCCS. About 1.9 million Arizonans are enrolled in the program and between 200,000 and 350,000 Arizonans are expected to be kicked off the program due to the cuts in the next decade.

“These cuts are going to be devastating, not only to our health care system and the health of these individuals who are going to lose health care coverage, but to anybody who receives health care here in Arizona, there is likely an impact,” Kelly said.

Anticipated premium hikes

Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association Senior Vice President of Policy and Advocacy Helena Whitney said, historically, Medicaid cuts have led to increases in health insurance premiums as providers shift costs to private sector employers.

“It’s very clear that health insurance premiums are going to go up. … Those increases to businesses trying to get insurance for their companies is going to go higher and higher, and then it becomes an affordability question. How do you keep doing that?” she said.

Anticipated homelessness increase

Another population likely to be affected by the cuts are homeless people, or Arizonans close to homelessness.

Scott Hall with Phoenix’s Office of Homeless Solutions said many low-income or homeless people in the city use Medicaid. Physical health, mental health and substance abuse are some of the main contributing factors to homelessness.

“A lot of people divert experiencing homelessness just because they receive the right mental health services and substance abuse services. And as we make that more complex and challenging for people, we are going to see that exponentially increase,” Hall said.

Anticipated emergency room delays

One thing several panelists brought up is the likely increase in emergency room wait times.

One reason is that if Arizonans are no longer getting Medicaid, they may wait until they are sicker than usual to go to the hospital and will turn to emergency rooms instead of primary care physicians.

Another reason is the cuts are expected to shut down access to health care in rural parts of the state, which may lead rural Arizonans to travel to cities like Phoenix for care.

“If you’re waiting five hours today in the ED to get seen, you can double and triple that, because the more and more people that come into an emergency department, the longer it’s going to be until anyone can get care,” Whitney said.

Anticipated economic effects

Gallego said she’s concerned it will impact the city’s fire service because currently, about 40% of transports are paid for Medicaid. And if people wait to go to the hospital until they’re severely sick or injured because they no longer have health insurance, they may be more likely to take an ambulance to the hospital, and reimbursements may go down.

“The same bill that put additional requirements on Medicaid also is quite likely to lead to perhaps a $50 million loss in revenue for the city,” Gallego said.

Valleywise Health President and CEO Steve Purves said about 50% of the organization’s revenue comes from Medicaid.

He cited a report commissioned by the Arizona Chamber Foundation on the economic impact of Medicaid cuts.

According to the report, for every $1 billion of Medicaid cuts, there will be a loss of 36,000 jobs across multiple industries in the state.

What should Arizonans do going forward?

The Medicaid cuts have not gone into effect yet.

In preparation for them, the health care experts recommend that Arizonans on Medicaid get their insurance paperwork up to date, and prepare to provide proof if they qualify for any exemptions to work requirements.

Also, under the new bill, adults on Medicaid will be subject to eligibility renewal every six months instead of annually.