Since August 1988, when Wayne Gretzky was sold in what was called a trade at the time, the city of Edmonton has doubled in size. The city’s airport has gone through several upgrades, to the point any awkward moments at #YEG are unlikely. Perhaps more importantly, the Edmonton Oilers are one of the richest franchises in the NHL, with a fan base so devoted that the city itself is more an Oilers town than a hockey town.
This summer, the city has been mostly calm when discussing the potential next contract for Connor McDavid, the team’s captain and best player. Fortunately for modern fans of the team, those economic and population changes since 1988 mean an entirely different scenario for today.
Insider reporting on the deal has been unusually vague about the details, making an observer suspicious about how much is actually known by even the most connected hockey reporters. It does appear a contract is likely to be signed, and that it will be a shorter deal than McDavid’s previous agreement. Back in July 2017, he signed an eight-year extension for $100 million ($12.5 million annual average value); this time, some have him coming in around $16.5 million on a three- or four-year agreement.
Why a shorter deal?
In the decade since arriving in Edmonton, the captain has delivered fantastic value in all 10 seasons. The franchise gets an enormous edge due to his presence on the roster, and no matter the cap hit on the new deal, his cap hit will continue to hold exceptional value.
The player may prefer a shorter deal for two reasons. McDavid may not want a repeat of the last decade, a period when the team deployed elite talent at the top end but were never able to find enough support players of quality to win the Stanley Cup. The two recent trips to the Final represent progress while also making the superior depth of the Florida Panthers roster clear. Other NHL teams have consistently outperformed Oilers management.
The second reason? McDavid may feel another three or four years devoted to the task of winning in Edmonton represents enough of a commitment to the organization. If he signs elsewhere in the fall of 2030, few could suggest he delivered less than his best while in an Oilers uniform.
What needed improvement?
From the outside looking in, it looks like the lack of an answer to the Panthers’ furious forecheck had a major impact on the result in the Stanley Cup Final. That includes deployment (Mattias Ekholm was not able to play at normal levels in Games 5 and 6) and execution — the players abandoned passes through the middle in favour of low-percentage outlets along the wall and alley-oop dumps to centre ice.
The Oilers looked like the older team, especially on the wings. A postmortem of the final also has to include mention of the goaltending, despite Stuart Skinner’s strong performance against the Dallas Stars leading up to the Panthers series.
What has changed?
General manager Stan Bowman has yet to address the goaltending, but the team’s defence is recognized as being top-drawer. It is so deep that any trade in-season for a goaltender may include a defenceman as part of the assets out.
The wingers will be younger, with rookies Matt Savoie and Ike Howard joined by veteran free-agent Andrew Mangiapane. Along with a healthy Zach Hyman and deadline addition Trent Frederic, coach Kris Knoblauch should be able to mix and match as needed through the regular season. Finding three lines that can outscore opponents at five-on-five will be key.
The club has improved depth across the roster, from veteran forwards (such as Curtis Lazar) to wild-card European additions like David Tomasek and Atro Leppänen.
The deadline deal for Jake Walman was a big part of the upgrade, and Bowman did move the needle this summer.
What is left to do?
A guess on goaltending: the organization gives Skinner and Calvin Pickard most of the regular season (to the deadline) in order to show consistency. At that time, or before, management likely makes a move.
The Oilers may opt to carry a 22-man roster (one short of the maximum) in an effort to optimize the trade deadline. A list of possible additions at that time include names like right wing Alex Tuch (Buffalo Sabres), left wing Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles Kings), defenceman Jamie Oleksiak (Seattle Kraken) and goaltender Filip Gustavsson (Minnesota Wild).
There is also the added urgency that comes from the foundation of this team (McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse) aging out of their peak years and reaching their 30s over the next few seasons. McDavid has been carrying this roster forever — he may not be able to reach previous dizzying heights with the same consistency, and injuries will become a bigger factor. The anxiety some Oilers fans feel about the future is real, and adding young talent like Savoie and Howard is vital.
What will the contract tell us?
The next McDavid contract will give fans an indication of how much additional time the captain wishes to devote to a management group that has consistently run out of sync with the cutting-edge GMs in the league. He’s held up his end of the bargain; it’s time for the organization to stand and deliver.
When Peter Chiarelli arrived in 2015, he traded for a starting goaltender (Cam Talbot), signed a top-flight defenceman (Andrej Sekera) and then invested heavily in riskier assets like Griffin Reinhart and Milan Lucic. The Oilers were a team badly in need of a stronger farm system, but Chiarelli neither committed to a full rebuild nor optimized McDavid’s entry deal in an effort to win it all early.
Ken Holland got a lot closer but, like Chiarelli, he bled young assets like they were a constantly renewing resource. His time in Edmonton will be remembered as a mixture of inspired acquisitions (Hyman, Ekholm) and baffling deals (the Duncan Keith trade) that led directly to more baffling deals (the Darnell Nurse contract).
McDavid’s frustration after the Final likely had much to do with the Panthers’ impressive efforts against the Oilers’ outlet attempts. Some of the vexation may also come from the decade of curious roster decisions that consistently left Edmonton poorer.
If McDavid has expressed bewilderment in regard to Oilers’ management being unable to compete for talent at the highest levels, he is justified in doing so. If a short-term contract is a result of that frustration, it may clarify things and possibly put an end to walkabout trade ideas and front-office gaffes that cost real talent. This isn’t Stan Bowman’s fault, but it is his problem.
The length of McDavid’s deal starts the clock on what could be his final seasons in Edmonton.
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)