Griffin Wong gives his pick and prediction on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s contest between the Lynx and the Liberty.

Just under 10 months ago, the New York Liberty edged out the Minnesota Lynx in overtime of Game 5 to win their first WNBA Finals. With both teams retaining strong rosters in 2025, their first three regular-season matchups have certainly carried playoff aura, with the Lynx edging out all three by a combined 25 points.

The teams’ fourth and final matchup will tip tonight at 7 p.m. ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, and just like in each of the previous three games, the Liberty’s Breanna Stewart will not play as she continues her recovery from a bruised knee. Minnesota’s headliner, MVP front-runner Napheesa Collier, who’s missed four straight games with a sprained ankle, is doubtful.

The hosts are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-122 Moneyline), with the total set at 165 points, and the visitors are +102 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the much-anticipated rematch and offer a prediction.

Lynx at Liberty prediction, pick

Saturday’s nationally-televised clash seemed like an opportunity for New York to pick up its first win of the season against the Lynx, as the Liberty led by six points early in the fourth quarter. However, Kayla McBride dropped a 29-foot dagger from way beyond the right wing to open up a four-point Minnesota lead with 31.9 seconds to play, and she and Jessica Shepard closed New York out at the charity stripe. It was hardly a perfect game for the Liberty — Sabrina Ionescu shot just five-for-16 from the field and they lost the turnover battle, 13 to seven — but for them to shoot more efficiently both from the field and from deep and still lose has to be considered a missed opportunity.

The Lynx got to the free-throw line at will on Saturday, earning 33 free-throw attempts to New York’s eight, and while that disparity could normalize somewhat back on Long Island, Minnesota has attempted the league’s third-most free-throw attempts per game since Collier’s injury. McBride made all nine of her free-throws on August 5 in the team’s first game without Collier and nine of her 13 tries on Saturday, making an impact despite shooting an uncharacteristic three-for-14 from the field. Though Saturday’s contest marked the first time the Liberty have been particularly undisciplined since Stewart’s injury, their overall defensive concerns should result in McBride having another good game.

New York’s chances will once again lie with Ionescu. Though the 2020 first overall pick is enjoying the best season of her WNBA career overall, she’s still maddeningly inconsistent from three, making just 26.9% of her tries since Stewart’s injury. 19.7 points per game on streaky shooting isn’t good enough for a player who’s ranked fourth in the league in usage rate across that span, and even with an efficient 15.3 points per game from Jonquel Jones, the team has still gone 4-7.

In part, that’s because Jones’ defense has slipped; in the last 11 games, opponents have shot 65.2% within five feet of the basket, the second-best mark in basketball. That could be a problem against new Lynx acquisition Di’Jonai Carrington, who’s taken 4.0 of her 9.9 shots per game from close range between stints in Dallas and Minnesota, and among the 47 players who attempt at least three close shots per game, Shepard is the second-most efficient.

Even without Collier, one of the league’s premier defenders, the Lynx have closed out well on opposing shooters. Since her injury, opponents have shot just eight-for-30 (26.7%) from 25 to 29 feet, where Ionescu has attempted more shots per game than all but two players. They’ve also allowed the fourth-fewest made field goals within five feet, which should help them defend Ionescu’s drives and Jones’ layups. Minnesota has been exploitable on shorter triples and allowed the second-most assists, so the Liberty’s catch-and-shoot specialists, Leonie Fiebich and Marine Johannes, need to be lights-out if New York wants to pull off the win.

In the end, that’s a little too much to ask for. Given the favorable odds, I’ll take the Lynx to sweep the season series.

Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (+102)