A good lesson from the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff is that it’s a long, long, long season. Last year, most of us wrote off Ohio State after it lost to Michigan, and we saw how that turned out. Plenty wrote off Clemson, before it won the ACC, and many even wrote off Notre Dame after the Irish lost to NIU.
But folks aren’t writing off Clemson now. I felt better about this in May when the Clemson bandwagon was still pretty empty, but now a lot of other folks are jumping on. They’re buying in on Cade Klubnik (No. 1 in The Athletic’s QB Tiers), the receivers, defensive tackle Peter Woods (the No. 5 player on my 2025 Freaks List), Tom Allen coming in to fix the defense, all of it. Heck, even Stew Mandel is starting to like Dabo’s guys again.
I was hedging my bets when predicting Clemson would face Texas again in the CFP, this time for the national title, earlier in the offseason. Now, I’m ready to go all in. I think.
Here’s my bracket for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff:
First round
In the No. 5 vs. No. 12 first-round game, I have Ohio State hosting Boise State. The Broncos will miss Ashton Jeanty, but they still have an experienced team led by QB Maddux Madsen to emerge as the top-ranked Group of 5 conference champion again. Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley are talented backs in their own right. Keep an eye on tiny Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who is super elusive and created a lot of buzz there. Still, the Buckeyes are just too loaded for the Broncos.
In the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game, I have No. 9 Miami visiting No. 8 Georgia, which means Carson Beck gets to face his old team. Beck will flourish in offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson’s system at Miami, and watch out for Canes RB Jordan Lyle. The Bulldogs still have a fierce defense, but I predict Beck handles it and the ACC gets a big win over an SEC powerhouse.
I have Arizona State edging out Oregon for the No. 11 slot, which faces No. 6 LSU. This is a good quarterback matchup between Garrett Nussmeier and Sam Leavitt. Expect LSU’s defense to take a good step forward in coordinator Blake Baker’s second season running the show in Baton Rouge, and I think LSU will slow down the Sun Devils.
In the No. 7 vs. No. 10 game, Big 12 champion Iowa State hosts Notre Dame. The Cyclones have a stout defense, but the Irish running attack led by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will take over the game in the second half, giving Marcus Freeman another CFP win.
Quarterfinals
Former Alabama signee Julian Sayin — who left Tuscaloosa after Nick Saban retired — and Ohio State get No. 4 Alabama in the quarterfinals. The country’s top two wideouts, Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams, will also meet. Bama, which has lost its last two postseason games against Big Ten opponents, gets some revenge by knocking off the Buckeyes as Ty Simpson continues an impressive first season as the Alabama starter.
There’s an ACC title game rematch in the quarterfinals when Miami plays No. 1 Clemson. As good as the Canes’ offensive line is, the Tigers’ defensive line gives them some fits, and Klubnik gets the best of an improved Miami secondary.
LSU gets No. 3 Penn State, the Big Ten champion, in the quarterfinals. The Nittany Lions are loaded on both sides of the ball, and new DC Jim Knowles slows down the Tigers’ offense to get Penn State into the semifinals.
Arch Manning’s first Playoff game as starting quarterback for No. 2 Texas, the SEC champion, comes against the Irish. Though it took the Longhorns some time for their rebuilt offensive line with four new starters to come together, they cruise past Notre Dame to make it to the semifinals.
Semifinals
My final four: Texas-Penn State and Clemson-Alabama.
The chess match between Knowles and Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is a fun one. For months, I’ve had Texas in the title game, but I’m flip-flopping and going with Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions. It’ll be a tight game, but this time Allar, with a much-improved group of wide receivers, comes up big in the clutch.
In the other semifinal, Clemson gets past Alabama, although the Tide’s offensive line holds up pretty well against the Tigers’ defensive front.
National championship: Clemson over Penn State
Tom Allen, who was Penn State’s defensive coordinator last year, meets his old team in the title game with Clemson. The familiarity on both sides of the ball makes for an interesting subplot. I could see Penn State winning it all. The Nittany Lions have all the pieces they need now to do it, both on their roster and at the coordinator spots.
But I’m going with my hunch that it’s Clemson’s year. I’ll stick with it.
(Top photo by Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images for ONIT)