Can the Phoenix Suns beat Vegas? Predicting Phoenix’s 31.5 win line

The Phoenix Suns’ over/under win total on FanDuel is 31.5. They won 36 games last season.

On the surface, that number feels fair given the seismic roster turnover, loss of Kevin Durant, and the depth of the Western Conference.

Still, it begs the question: should fans expect this group to eclipse that mark or fall short?

Added: Jalen Green, Mark Williams, Dillon Brooks, Jordan Goodwin, Nigel Hayes-Davis, Khaman Maluach, Rasheer Fleming, Koby Brea, Jared Butler.

Lost: Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Tyus Jones, Cody Martin, Mason Plumlee, TyTy Washington.

The Case for the Over

The Suns added legitimate NBA talent and depth this summer, and that matters. They also hopefully removed the “bad vibes” by cleaning house from the failed “superteam”. If it feels wrong calling it that, good. It should.

Now, outside of good vibes and addition by subtraction, how can they climb over the 31-win mark? Hell, how can they climb into the 35-40 zone and make the playoffs a reality?

Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks started for a 52-win team a season ago. Mark Williams provides a lob threat and rebounding that the roster was void of last season, and the bench now looks deeper with role players like Jordan Goodwin, Nigel Hayes-Davis, and the promising trio of rookies filling out the rotation. And don’t forget vets Grayson Allen, Nick Richards, and Royce O’Neale. A year two leap from Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodoro would be a welcome sight.

The pieces are there; now it’s about making it click and getting everyone bought in.

There’s also the matter of chemistry. Last season’s group was built around Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, but it always felt fragile and unbalanced. It felt like everyone was walking on eggshells all year long from the outside looking in. This roster has fewer household names, but it may be better equipped to handle the grind of an 82-game season with players hungry to prove they belong, plus a more balanced roster.

If Jalen Green takes even a modest step forward and Brooks brings his trademark toughness, 32 to 35 wins are well within reach. In order to reach that mark, they have to take advantage of the bad teams in the East when they play them and win some games they aren’t supposed to against teams sleepwalking through their game.

Devin Booker breakout season, anyone? Ultimately, anything on the “over” side puts them (relatively) in the race for the back-end of the play-in at the very least.

The Case for the Under

Of course, there is a reason Vegas set the line where it did. The Suns lost future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant. With Bradley Beal and Tyus Jones gone, the guard depth took a slight hit, though some would argue “addition by subtraction” with those two.

This new roster is younger, streakier, and far less proven, which could be a good thing or a bad thing. First-year head coach Jordan Ott is experienced but not in the head role. Jalen Green has had his ups and downs early in his career, and the defensive issues and shot selection remain top of mind. Brooks brings intensity, but he can also be erratic and shoot teams out of games. The element of uncertainty warrants skepticism from the oddsmakers.

If Devin Booker misses extended time at any point, the wheels could fall off.

The West is also loaded. Even fringe playoff teams like the Warriors, Mavericks, and Grizzlies look much more stable on paper. To consistently win in this conference, you need star power and late-game closers. The Suns may not have enough of either. A long losing skid in the middle of the season would not be a surprise, and if Green and Booker struggle to carry the offense, Phoenix could easily sink below 30 wins.

Closing Thoughts

The Suns are in a transition phase. Gone are the days of unrealistic championship expectations. What they have now is a roster full of hungry players trying to prove themselves. That usually leads to inconsistency, but also effort and fight every night.

At 31.5, the line feels about right. A bet on the over is essentially a bet on Jalen Green’s development and the defensive culture Dillon Brooks, Ryan Dunn and Mark Williams can anchor. A bet on the under is a wager that talent wins out in the NBA, and Phoenix no longer has enough of it.

If forced to choose, I would lean slightly over. This team has just enough pieces and just enough motivation to scratch out 33 or 34 wins. Not pretty. Not easy. But enough to sneak past the mark.

This is not financial advice. I, for one, am not going to touch this prop one as it’s too close for me to feel confident either way.

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Can the Phoenix Suns beat Vegas? Predicting Phoenix’s 31.5 win line

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