As both parties scrounge for opportunities among relatively few competitive congressional seats in 2026, a potential Texas redistricting fight has captured the imagination of political watchers near and far.

Republicans currently hold a 220-212 seat advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives, and President Donald Trump wants Texas to redraw its congressional maps so that more of its seats favor Republicans.

At the same time, civil rights groups are suing Texas to make more of its congressional districts Latino-majority — raising additional speculation about changes to the maps in a state that both national Republicans and national Democrats consider critical to their parties’ futures.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau is used to assign states the number of congressional seats they get to represent them in D.C., but the states have relatively broad authority to draw the district lines how they choose — often crafted to give the party in power its best chances at winning seats.

Like other redistricting efforts, which typically occur after a Census determines that new maps are needed to account for population shifts, the mid-cycle redistricting process would move through the Texas Legislature.

Right now lawmakers, political consultants and voting rights advocates are holding their collective breath to see if Gov. Greg Abbott will try to deliver more Republican members of Congress by adding a rare mid-cycle redistricting request to the agenda for a special session starting next month.

Rep. Josey Garcia sits on the state legislature’s redistricting committee. Credit: Scott Ball / San Antonio Report

“I’m almost 100% sure that it will get added … [state GOP leaders] have shown us all session that they’ve been in lockstep with what the [Trump] administration is doing,” said state Rep. Josey Garcia (D-San Antonio), who serves on the Texas House’s Committee on Redistricting, where a potential redistricting bill would move.

This round of redistricting wouldn’t add any seats to the U.S. House from Texas, so the idea of redividing residents among existing districts has given some Texas Republican members whose districts could become more competitive heartburn.

But groups fighting Texas’ current congressional maps say change may be inevitable — and a mid-cycle redistricting could allow state leaders to remedy the problem before a court does it for them.

Earlier this year the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) and other civil rights groups argued to a federal court that Texas’ existing maps illegally split up voters of color — and asked that Latino-majority districts in Houston and the Dallas-Fort Worth area be created as a remedy.

“I think [Republicans] realized that they might be in trouble, and that’s why you’re hearing calls from Governor Abbott about possibly calling a special session to redraw the lines,” LULAC National President Domingo Garcia told the Report.

‘I want more Republican congressmen’

Republicans currently control 25 of Texas’ 38 congressional seats, with one vacancy in a deep-blue Houston seat that had been held by the late U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston).

To make more blue seats competitive for Republicans, most political watchers believe changes to the map would need to be in South Texas — traditionally Democratic territory that’s been trending red in the Trump era.

“My assumption is that it’s going to be in the [Rio Grande] Valley,” said Republican consultant Craig Murphy, who suggested South Texas could produce one or more Republican-friendly seats if the districts were redrawn. “From San Antonio down, that’s the area that has had the most dramatic changes since the last drawing of the maps.”

National Republicans tried hard to flip South Texas seats in 2022, but closed up shop after their investments and enthusiastic candidates fell flat.

In a nod to the potentially changing landscape, this election cycle they’ve already renewed interest in ousting either U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) — recruiting candidates and attacking incumbents who’ve fended off tough challenges easily despite Trump’s success.

“If we can pick up Republican seats in Texas to make Congress stronger, after what the Democrats did to our country in the last four years, … I want more Republican congressmen,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said this week of the potential to redraw district lines.

Voting rights advocates see an opportunity

Civil rights groups say changing Texas’ maps may be more complicated than just shoring up Republicans’ top targets.

Courts have already upheld that states can redraw their existing district boundaries outside of the traditional redistricting schedule — and also that they have broad authority to change them for partisan political purposes.

But there are rules governing how political maps divide people based on race, and civil rights groups have had some limited success challenging Texas districts that unfairly diluted the power of voters of color.

“We’re watching very closely … to make sure that our communities of color and our communities that are historically Democratic and low-income aren’t going to be further victimized by the gerrymandering of the districts,” Garcia said of the potential upcoming fight.

During the special session, committee leaders would present a proposal subject to public comment and requiring approval from both chambers.

State Rep. Barbara Gervin-Hawkins (D-San Antonio) speaks at a campaign rally in 2022. Credit: Nick Wagner / San Antonio Report

Garcia and state Rep. Barbara Gervin-Hawkins (D-San Antonio) are among the 15-member redistricting committee’s Democrats, who are already preparing how to engage the public in their fight.

They see potential to make the maps more fair, but have little idea what to expect from Republican colleagues who Garcia said spent much of the session targeting people of color in Texas.

“When it comes to drawing the lines and adding districts that will benefit Democrats and people of color, there’s an apprehensiveness [from state leaders],” she said. “But when it’s coming down from a national agenda of making sure that our voices are silent, we’re seeing more action.”

Republicans have also become more bold about their efforts to use the process for politics, she said, pointing to Tarrant County Republicans’ recent efforts to redistrict their way to more power on their commissioners court.

“We see that there’s no holds barred in terms of how things used to be done,” Garcia said.