North Texas’ population is surging. From 2013 to 2023, the seven counties of Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, Rockwall and Tarrant added more than a million new residents.
In the next 10 years, the region is projected to grow to 10 million, surpassing Chicago, the third-largest U.S. metro area, according to the Texas Demographic Center. In 25 years, North Texas is set to cross 12 million, gaining on the heels of Los Angeles, the second-largest metro.
By then, North Texas is projected to add 7 million more jobs, and Dallas-Fort Worth, renowned for its business-friendly regulations, is poised to take over as the financial hub of the American Heartland.
On the precipice of a major transformation, the quality of life for millions of North Texans is at stake.
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The challenges range from developing homegrown talent to meeting the area’s burgeoning workforce demands, to building infrastructure to support healthy communities and supplying water and energy equitably to sustain growth.
How the region responds now determines the growth’s promise or peril.
“When people decide to move, it‘s an economic decision that is not all about money,” said state demographer Lloyd Potter. The decision is based on quality-of-life factors such as quick access to family, good schools, housing, less traffic and the availability of parks and activities, he said.
“So often, when people are considering moving to a new potential destination, they’re weighing those questions relative to where they currently live,” Potter said.
Newcomers from across the U.S. and all over the world are propelling North Texas’ population growth.
Dallas County has recorded more residents moving out than in. Many are opting for a better quality of life in nearby counties, if not other metros such as Austin and San Antonio.
Angela Piazza / Staff Photographer
This growth has been uneven across the region, said Potter. While the outer counties of North Texas have experienced a tremendous expansion of developments on untouched land in recent years, Dallas County has recorded more residents moving out than in. Many are opting for a better quality of life in nearby counties, if not other metros such as Austin and San Antonio.
The urban core of Dallas and Tarrant counties has pockets of deep poverty and an older housing stock, restricting new development for affordable housing. The poorest communities are concentrated in the historically underserved neighborhoods of southern Dallas, where residents are more likely to be Black or Latino and lack access to basic amenities.
People of color, especially the Latino population, are driving North Texas’ population and economic growth. In 25 years, Latinos are projected to be the largest demographic group in North Texas.
Yet many Latino households earn lower incomes than white and Asian households, are less educated and remain underrepresented in well-paying management, business and science positions, according to data from The Texas Demographic Center.
As the region prospers, wide disparities in historically underserved Black neighborhoods in southern Dallas endure. Access to quality health care, education and basic amenities are still a struggle for many. If left unaddressed, these vibrant and historic neighborhoods could be left behind, and North Texas could sabotage its own success.
The duality of these trends, both positive and negative, indicates the need for inclusive planning to sustain real growth across the region. Policymakers and stakeholders must act to strengthen the foundations for a good quality of life that draws in new people and uplifts local residents to share in the prosperity, say southern Dallas advocates.
Today southern Dallas is experiencing what many call a “renaissance,” as neighborhoods have witnessed a revitalization of art- and community-led investment. But the repercussions of a long history of discriminatory policies remain a thorn in its side.
Angela Piazza / Staff Photographer
This forms the focus of The Dallas Morning News’ Future of North Texas initiative.
With data and on-the-ground reporting, The News will track key indicators on education and workforce development, energy and resources, health care and infrastructure to comprehensively cover theregion’s rapid evolution.
The Future of North Texas is a community-funded journalism initiative supported by the Commit Partnership, Communities Foundation of Texas, The Dallas Foundation, the Dallas Mavericks, the Dallas Regional Chamber, Deedie Rose, the McCune-Losinger Family Fund, The Meadows Foundation, the Perot Foundation, the United Way of Metropolitan Dallas and the University of Texas at Dallas. The News retains full editorial control of this coverage.
Workforce readiness
Meeting the demands for a skilled workforce to sustain a booming economy has been a major challenge in North Texas.
Since 2001, Dallas-Fort Worth’s gross domestic product, or the total goods and services produced annually, has more than doubled. The region is now home to 24 Fortune 500 company headquarters. Yet North Texas faces a gap in homegrown talent.
D-FW residents tend to be less educated than those moving to the area, according to the Texas Demographic Center, and are losing out on lucrative job opportunities in business and technology.
UT Arlington student Natalia Martinez practiced interviewing with Ebenezer Allen, of Westlink Academy, during an internship conference at Dallas College’s Cedar Valley campus on July 31 in Lancaster. In Dallas County, barely a third of young adults ages 25-34 earned a living wage in 2022, according to a report from Commit Partnership released in January.
Angela Piazza / Staff Photographer
“Texas has the eighth-largest economy in the world, yet Texas employers are struggling to find Texans with credentials to meet their workforce needs,” said Wynn Rosser, commissioner of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board.
Statewide, 63% of Texas jobs will require knowledge beyond a high school diploma by 2030, according to Gov. Greg Abbott‘s office.
To maintain a competitive edge and equip the local labor pool with skills to meet market demands, the region must strengthen its education-to-workforce pipeline, align career pathways with industry needs and address school inequities, advocates say.
“We’re going to continue to keep importing workers if we don’t make sure that those students who start college finish college,” said Jaime Puente, economic opportunity director for the social justice organization Every Texan.
The system must also provide robust career advising and support systems, especially for underrepresented students, to gain a competitive edge, said Jonathan Feinstein, Texas director of pro-equity nonprofit EdTrust.
Training for jobs in business, finance, science, computers and management is crucial for residents to earn livable wages, especially as the housing cost burden (the difference between median income and home values) grows wider, according to the Texas Demographic Center.
In Dallas County, barely a third of young adults ages 25-34 earned a living wage in 2022, according to a report from Commit Partnership released in January.
Training for jobs in business, finance, science, computers and management is crucial for residents to earn livable wages, especially as the housing cost burden grows wider, according to the Texas Demographic Center.
Angela Piazza / Staff Photographer
The state has launched initiatives such as the 60×30 and “Building a Talent Strong Texas” programs to ensure 60% of 25- to 64-year-old residents obtain a degree or credential by 2030, but affordability remains a barrier. Advocates say non-tuition fees are a burden, alongside the growing cost of living and rising child care costs.
Access to child care supports the workforce as parents pursue economic opportunities. Yet at least 20 ZIP codes in D-FW lack child care providers and are deemed child care deserts, according to advocacy nonprofit Children at Risk.
Similarly, mental health support for community college students, particularly those from lower-income backgrounds, students of color, and parenting students, is a critical concern affecting academic performance and workforce readiness, said Holly Kosiewicz of the UT Dallas Education Research Center – Texas Schools Project.
The News is tracking how education and training programs — from prekindergarten to college — prepare the region’s workforce to succeed in a thriving economy.
Energy and natural resources
Projections about North Texas’ growth over the next few decades have raised concerns about straining the region’s energy and natural resources.
Power-hungry data centers, cryptocurrency mining and a rapid increase in the number of electric vehicles are already putting significant stress on the energy infrastructure.
In February, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s power grid operator, shared a worst-case scenario of Texas power supply outstripping demand in less than five years. ERCOT‘s biannual Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report projects a possible 8.3% supply shortfall during peak demand in 2027. The projected shortfall worsens to 32.4% by summer 2029.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s power grid operator, shared a report in February that projects a possible 8.3% supply shortfall during peak demand in 2027. The projected shortfall worsens to 32.4% by summer 2029.
Tom Fox / Staff Photographer
At the same time, the future of natural resources such as water and air has emerged as a major concern. Failing to act now for the improvement of these resources imperils any prospects of positive growth in the region.
Investing in water is especially critical. While Texas’ population is projected to grow over 70% to 50 million in 2070, water supply is projected to decrease by roughly 18%, according to the 2022 Texas Water Plan.
The state needs to spend more than $150 billion in water and wastewater systems to expand supply and fix old, deteriorating systems, according to estimates by Texas 2036, a nonpartisan public policy think tank.
If it does not and is hit by a severe drought, then, by 2050, the state will endure $165 billion in annual GDP losses, said Jeremy B. Mazur, director of infrastructure and natural resources policy at Texas 2036. He added that leaving at-risk systems unresolved will cost an additional $320 billion over the next 15 years.
“To put it bluntly: Insufficient investment in water infrastructure could very well reverse Texas’ economic miracle,” Mazur said.
In recent years, D-FW has struggled to meet federal air quality standards for ozone pollution levels, which are formed when pollutants from vehicles and industrial sources react with heat and sunlight.
“In the last couple of years, we have lost ground on a lot of the improvements we were making on air quality” said Chris Klaus of the North Central Texas Council of Governments, which monitors the impact of transportation on air quality.
This has serious consequences for residents’ health, especially the respiratory system, and is a major trigger for asthma attacks, especially in children. Already, the region has a high rate of pediatric asthma cases that are exacerbated during frequent, intense heat waves.
The News is tracking how lawmakers address these concerns on air, water and land in the next few years, as their decisions will influence quality of life for residents, both old and new.
Health care and health disparities
The health care industry is one of the most prominent influencers in North Texas’ economy. It has an economic impact of over $38 billion and generates over 350,000 jobs, according to a study commissioned by the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council in 2022.
However, access to affordable health care in the region remains unequal. Texas has the highest number of uninsured residents and children of any state, according to census data, and in several North Texas counties, that share is even higher.
In Dallas County, nearly one in four residents lives without insurance.
They are more likely to be young adults, Latino, earn lower incomes and already have health issues, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Without insurance coverage, people tend to skip care to save on costs. This impacts the health of North Texans as uninsured adults and children may forgo preventive care for conditions such as diabetes, asthma and cancer screenings, and services like dental care, immunizations and checks on developmental milestones.
The uninsured are more likely to find themselves in medical debt. Nearly a third of residents, especially residents of color, in Dallas, Tarrant, Kaufman and Ellis counties are in medical debt, according to data from the Urban Institute.
The News is tracking uninsured rates in North Texas alongside rates of low birth weight, preventable hospital stays and access to primary care for insight on how state and local policies and budgets affect community health as the region expands.
Infrastructure
How North Texas supports its increasing population with infrastructure such as public transportation, roads, internet access and other basic services is a key challenge.
Managing congestion and mobility is a significant hurdle in the region’s future development.
While North Texas has the largest managed lane system in North America, expanding roadways to keep pace with population growth is proving difficult, according to the North Central Texas Council of Governments.
“We have built a lot — we’ve got more toll roads than anywhere in Texas and we continue to grow — but we can’t continue to grow that way and build our way out,” said Dan Kessler, assistant director of transportation at NCTCG.
“Our story is always that we’re growing faster than we have the resources to provide transportation infrastructure,” he said, adding it‘s the same with other infrastructure. “But we can’t continue to grow that way and just build our way out.”
Instead, NCTCG advocated the need to improve and expand public transportation as a solution for managing congestion, improving air quality and ensuring equitable access to jobs and services.
Part of the challenge involves improving connectivity to public transit lines. Despite having the largest light rail system in America, less than 50% of the population is projected to be within a Transit Authority service area by 2045-2050, Kessler said.
In its 2024 economic impact report for Dallas-Fort Worth, ride share service provider Lyft found nearly half of all riders have used a Lyft service to get to or from public transit and about 30% use Lyft to get around when public transportation does not operate.
While North Texas has the largest managed lane system in North America, expanding roadways to keep pace with population growth is proving difficult, according to the North Central Texas Council of Governments.
Angela Piazza / Staff Photographer
Overall, Lyft found about a third of its rides in Dallas start or end in underserved areas to aid access to jobs, health care and education, and the company says most riders say Lyft improves accessibility in their neighborhoods.
The News is tracking residents’ means of transportation and traffic congestion levels to gain perspective on how infrastructure is responding to growth challenges. This includes tracking access to broadband internet, a vehicle of connectivity for remote workers.
Southern Dallas
In a study spanning the city of Dallas, Southern Methodist University identified over 60 infrastructure deserts riddled with crumbling sidewalks, potholed streets and scant tree cover. The study also found a lack of internet access, health care and grocery stores.
Most of these deserts are located below Interstate 30 in southern Dallas.
Dallas is one of the most segregated cities in the U.S., according to 2020 census data. Many residents of southern Dallas neighborhoods such as Fair Park, south Oak Cliff and Joppa are Black or Latino with lower incomes and a greater reliance on public transit. Enduring under-investment in these parts have contributed to Dallas County recording one of the greatest population losses in the state between 2021 and 2022, according to the Texas Demographic Center.
Today the area is experiencing what many call a “renaissance,” as neighborhoods have witnessed a revitalization of art- and community-led investment. But the repercussions of a long history of discriminatory policies remain a thorn in its side. Many residents struggle to participate in the North Texas boom.
Southern Dallas presents an opportunity for local governments to move past harmful policies and rear growth with a healthy, homeowning, educated workforce in historically disadvantaged neighborhoods, according to local advocates.
While different generations in southern Dallas hold different visions for success, there is a consensus that the area is a “jewel,” said Derrick Battie, an advocate for south Oak Cliff who served on the Mayor’s Task Force on Safe Communities, created by Mayor Eric Johnson. “You have to keep that jewel polished. You have to keep it clean, you have to maintain it,” Battie said.
As neighborhoods develop, it’s important to create and offer something for everybody, according to Mark Jones, interim president and CEO of Bonton Farms.
“We have to be very deliberate and very intentional in the marketplace so that nobody feels pushed out,” Jones said, adding this is what makes for a healthy community.
“And nobody feels like they can’t live here anymore.”
This reporting is part of the Future of North Texas, a community-funded journalism initiative supported by the Commit Partnership, Communities Foundation of Texas, The Dallas Foundation, the Dallas Mavericks, the Dallas Regional Chamber, Deedie Rose, the McCune-Losinger Family Fund, The Meadows Foundation, the Perot Foundation, the United Way of Metropolitan Dallas and the University of Texas at Dallas. The News retains full editorial control of this coverage.