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As temperatures cool and fall begins, UrbanTurf takes a look at the three metrics that might determine if the buyers market in the DC region continues through the end of the year.
The number of homes on the market in the region only continues to increase. The supply of listings in 2025 has risen between 40% to 50% compared to last year. In May, there were more than 10,000 homes on the market for the first time in nearly six years. What this means is that the choices available for buyers are rapidly expanding, giving them more negotiating power than they have had in years. There is little evidence to signal that this won’t continue through the winter.
Contract ratio compares the total number of homes under contract in a given period to the overall number of active listings, providing a good sense for the level of competition in the housing market. If this ratio is above 1.0, it indicates a high level of homebuyer competition and below 1.0 points to a lower level of competition. For the last several months, the ratio has hovered around 0.50 in the DC region, indicating that most homes are not inciting competition. UrbanTurf believes that this trend will continue in the fall.
The direction of mortgage rates is becoming a perennial inclusion on this list, and it is perhaps the main thing keeping buyers on the sidelines. For most of 2025, long-term rates have hovered between 6.5% and 6.8%, a far cry from the 2.5%-3.5% rates of 2021-2022. There’s a good chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, although, as we have previously reported, this probably won’t have a dramatic impact on mortgage rates. However, if rates could get down to 6%, there will likely be much more activity from buyers.
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This article originally published at https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/will_the_buyers_market_continue_in_the_dc_area_this_fall/23826.