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- A federal judge ruled the Trump administration unlawfully cut nearly $3 billion of Harvard’s research funding.
- Josh Kraft parted ways with his top advisers, in a major campaign staff shakeup just days before the Boston mayoral primary.
- Nursing homes in Massachusetts are being flipped in deals that put quick profit ahead of long-term success.
The last US jobs report was a shocker. Will the next one, set for release on Friday, deliver another jolt?
After the July report, the labor market suddenly seemed weaker than previously thought, as employers hit the brakes on hiring. Employment gains for the previous two months were revised sharply lower, and the jobless rate ticked up to 4.2 percent.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, assessed the data and other indicators and concluded that the US was on “the precipice of recession.”
In Zandi’s view, Massachusetts and 20 other states are already in or at high risk of a contraction.
President Trump reacted to the July employment numbers by firing the head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. He suggested the report had been rigged to make him look bad.
More likely, his policies are starting to stunt economic growth.
Tariffs are cutting into corporate profits and forcing businesses to delay hiring and other investments until their impact becomes clearer. Restrictive immigration policies are shrinking the workforce.
With fewer workers, it is harder for the economy to expand.
The local angle: The Massachusetts economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter, according to MassBenchmarks, an economics journal produced by the Donahue Institute at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
“We weren’t in a recession as of July,” said Alan Clayton-Matthews, senior contributing editor at MassBenchmarks. “Is one coming? That’s a different matter.”
Recessions are marked by a significant decline in economic activity — including employment, industrial output, and personal income and spending — that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
It’s true that the state’s labor market has lagged behind many parts of the country for some time. That reflects our dependence on immigration for population and workforce growth.
But broader data on wages and spending show the economy continued to expand from April through June.
Up next: We’ll get a fresh snapshot of the US job market on Friday, when the August employment report is released. (State numbers will follow in two weeks.)
The consensus among forecasters is that employers added 75,000 jobs last month, little changed from 73,000 in July.
Barring another big revision, that would bring the average gain over the past four months to 45,000, compared with an average increase of 123,000 in the first four months of the year.
The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3 percent.
Zandi, the Moody’s Analytics economist, says we will probably dodge a national recession thanks to economic momentum in big states such as Florida and Texas, as well states that are holding their own, including California and New York.
But that’s little consolation to struggling states such as Massachusetts and others in the same boat, including the rest of New England, except Vermont, and the Mid-Atlantic states, except Pennsylvania.
“The striking thing (at least to me) is the regional diversity of the economically troubled states,” Zandi said in an email. “The economic struggles are evident from coast-to-coast. If there is a common denominator among the troubled states it is their older populations and weaker demographics.”
Why it matters: The labor market isn’t as strong as the current 4.2 percent jobless rate suggests.
The supply of workers is declining as people leave the workforce — many due to deportations or the fear of being deported. That holds down unemployment because those people aren’t counted anymore.
At the same time, hiring demand has cooled. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the number of unemployed people in July exceeded US job openings for the first time in four years.
“I believe that any decline in labor supply is only masking weakening demand in the labor market. Whether or not supply is down, weakening demand is not good,” Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech late last month.
A closer look: Waller highlighted other data that “support the idea that labor demand may be on the edge of a sharp decline.”
- Raises for people switching to new jobs are lower than for workers staying in the same job, the opposite of what usually happens in a strong labor market.
- Teen joblessness has risen significantly in 2025, back to levels seen in the mid-2010s, pointing to reduced demand for entry-level workers.
Waller, a Trump appointee, was one of two governors who voted against holding interest rates steady at the Fed’s most recent meeting in July. He argues the central bank should be cutting rates now to prop up the job market.
Final thought: A recession isn’t inevitable — or even probable.
Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg put recession odds over the next year at 30 percent.
But the outlook for Massachusetts is dimmer.
Employers will struggle as more workers retire and immigration restrictions curb population growth. Professional business and technical services, biotech, and tech — key engines of the local economy — are in a downturn. And the high cost of doing business will limit the state’s ability to attract and retain jobs.
“There is a real threat of a recession,” Clayton-Matthews of MassBenchmarks said.
Friday’s job report could signal just how big that threat is.
“Obviously we have a lot of work to do.”
— Bill Belichick, following a 48-14 drubbing in his debut as football coach at the University of North Carolina.
🏛️ Trump Administration
Copycat: After ousting Susan Monarez, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pitched ideas to overhaul the agency that mirrored hers.
Ill wind: Projects blocked. Work stopped. Funds canceled. What’s left of offshore power?
Tariff appeal: The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to rule quickly on whether the president has the power to impose sweeping import taxes.
Food fight: CommonWealth Kitchen, the much-praised food startup hub in Dorchester, has been hit by toxic workplace allegations.
Another hit: State Treasurer Deborah Goldberg plans to appeal a judge’s decision to reinstate Shannon O’Brien as head of the Cannabis Control Commission, a move that could prolong the fight over the foundering regulatory agency.
Supply boost: Enbridge launched a $300 million expansion of its Algonquin natural gas pipeline in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with Eversource as its first customer.
1,135
— The number of billionaires in the US in 2024, according to data from Altrata, a wealth intelligence firm. Their collective wealth: about $5.7 trillion.
One of Amtrak’s NextGen Acela trains.Amtrak
You may have heard that Amtrak has upped its game with new high-speed trains along the Northeast Corridor, the heavily traveled route connecting Boston with New York and Washington, D.C.
Development of the NextGen Acela took 10 years and $2.35 billion to complete. Was it worth it? Yes, says Globe travel writer Christopher Muther, even if he experienced delays on his virgin voyage.
“The NextGen Acela is a beautiful train. Sleek, chock-a-block with thoughtful details, and a huge improvement over the 25-year-old previous generation that was decidedly showing its age,“ Muther writes.
Among the improvements: large panoramic windows, a quieter ride, a dedicated USB port and power outlet for each seat, and fast 5G Wi-Fi.
One thing the new Acela is not: faster. At least for now. Its top speed is 160 miles per hour, 10 mph faster than the old Acela. But Muther explains that the new train can’t always cruise at max speed because of the 100-year-old tracks, congestion, tunnels, and outdated signals.
Does anyone here remember the Metroliner? (Nostalgia is a big part of being a railfan.) That was the “high-speed” service — eventually around 120 mph — on the Northeast Corridor from 1969 to 2000, when Acela entered the station.
💻 On this date in 1998, Google was founded by Stanford University PhD students Sergey Brin and Larry Page.
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Larry Edelman can be reached at larry.edelman@globe.com.