What keeps the contending teams up at night?
Injuries, of course. But no club, not even the big-money Dodgers, is without a major flaw, an issue that could derail postseason dreams.
With about three weeks to go in the season, the 12-team MLB playoff field is largely set. Entering Friday, 11 of the top-12 contenders had playoff odds greater than 94 percent, with the 12th, Seattle, sitting at 76 percent and clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead for the final American League wild-card spot.
Here, apart from health worries, are the biggest concerns facing each of those teams between now and October.
National LeagueBrewers: Lack of power
The Brewers do a lot of things well — but the team does not hit the ball over the fence all that often. As the ancient baseball proverb says: “Ball go far, team go far.” Each of the last five World Series champions has finished the regular season ranked in the top four in home runs. Milwaukee entered Friday at No. 19. Outfielder Christian Yelich leads the team with 27, but no other Brewer has hit more than 18. “People get on us for not hitting homers,” Yelich said earlier this summer. “We’ve heard the whole spiel.”
There are reasons for optimism. William Contreras and Jackson Chourio are heating up in the second half. A healthy Rhys Hoskins could also provide some thump. But the lack of power is a glaring concern for the team with the best record in baseball, especially with Yelich sitting out this week because of soreness in his chronically troublesome back. — Andy McCullough
Phillies: Who starts Game 2?
This was less paramount when the Phillies had Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez atop their hypothetical postseason rotation, but now it’s just Sánchez. It’s not as though the Phillies are lacking options; they just don’t know yet how to arrange them. They could go with three lefties — Ranger Suárez could slot between the harder-throwing Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo. Or Aaron Nola could push his way into the conversation with a strong September.
A lot of it could be matchup-dependent; the Padres and Mets have struggled against lefties in 2025. Even if Suárez or Luzardo is starting, do the Phillies have the wherewithal to be aggressive with their bullpen in the middle of games? Walker Buehler will make some starts down the stretch; if he pitches well enough, he could factor into their postseason pitching plans somehow. — Matt Gelb
Dodgers: Which offense will show up?
The biggest concern could be the bullpen (20th in MLB with a 4.21 ERA entering Thursday). But it’s probably the offense not finding a consistent stride for months at a time despite being a star-studded group. Before June 1, the Dodgers topped the majors with a 126 wRC+. Ever since? They’re 14th, at 102. So, which group are they? — Fabian Ardaya
Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong have fallen off after powering the Cubs to a strong start. (Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)Cubs: Can the offense get back on track?
As good as the overall numbers are, the chief concern has to be the offense. This was a group that made the Cubs look dominant early in the season with a pair of MVP candidates in Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Now with PCA in a funk, Tucker’s calf a question mark and prior standouts like Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki not looking as consistent, suddenly this isn’t as formidable a unit. If the Cubs can find their rhythm and get close to looking how they did early in the year, they will be dangerous in October. — Sahadev Sharma
Padres: Which starting pitchers can they trust?
With a deep bullpen that remains poised to shorten games in October, the Padres should be equipped to handle the loss of Jason Adam. What they can’t survive is much more of the rotation’s bullpen-taxing ways. In recent weeks, San Diego starters have often failed to pitch past the fifth or even fourth inning, and a slew of early deficits has destroyed attempts at building momentum. Returning Michael King to the mound could be a huge boost, but the Padres don’t know what to expect after a lengthy absence and last month’s setback. And the question marks extend to almost every other member of the rotation.
Whom can the team trust at this all-important time of the year? For now, Nick Pivetta continues to be the lone exception. — Dennis Lin
Mets: Sorting out their pitching staff
The Mets’ biggest concern is figuring out their pitching staff. How much can they reasonably ask of their young pitchers, Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong? Can Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea bounce back in time? What about reliever Ryan Helsley?
The Mets may go as far as their lineup takes them, but they’re going to need some help from their pitching staff and it’s unclear how many trusted arms they can turn to. — Will Sammon
American LeagueBlue Jays: The bullpen
The Blue Jays hovered close to .500 baseball over the past month, drifting back to the pack in the American League East. The offense is still scoring and the starting pitching improved after a tumultuous first half. But the weak spot bringing Toronto down, lately, is the bullpen.
Strong relief pitching is a bedrock for October success. Having at least three or four trusted relievers in the postseason will be mandatory. But, at this point, the Jays need reliable bullpen arms. Relief pitching could be the difference between a division title and Blue Jays bye or another dreaded wild-card series. — Mitch Bannon
Tigers: The pitching … after Tarik Skubal
The Tigers have a 4.35 staff ERA since Aug. 1. After Skubal, there’s no sure thing for their Game 2 postseason starter. The Tigers plan to lean on their bullpen, so it might not matter. But their chaotic magic hasn’t been quite the same this year. The bullpen has been much better since the trade deadline (3.42 ERA), but their relievers are benefiting from a seemingly unsustainable .236 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). — Cody Stavenhagen
Astros: Bullpen depth
Houston’s bullpen depth has been depleted by injuries to closer Josh Hader and Bennett Sousa, who ascended to a set-up man role in Hader’s absence. Bryan Abreu has filled in admirably for Hader, but the bridge to him is — at best — shaky. Leverage arm Bryan King has already shattered his career-high workload and Kaleb Ort could soon join him. Losing Spencer Arrighetti to an elbow injury only further limited the Astros’ options for bullpen help in both the regular season and October. — Chandler Rome
Devin Williams has a 5.60 ERA this season with the Yankees. (Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)Yankees: Will the bullpen show up?
If manager Aaron Boone has the quick hook that he’s shown in previous postseasons, will this unit be able to stand up in October? It’s been a while since the Yankees’ bullpen felt deep and dependable. Somehow, after adding three arms at the trade deadline (David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Jake Bird), the bullpen has actually had a worse ERA, posting a 4.57 mark.
One of the Yankees’ starting pitchers (Luis Gil? Cam Schlittler? Will Warren?) will likely shift to the bullpen if they make the ALDS. Bednar has largely looked the part of a closer so far, but how will he handle the bright lights of October in the Bronx? Can Luke Weaver and Fernando Cruz become the stoppers Boone needs? Will Devin Williams use the rest of September to prove that he can be relied upon in crunch time? Does Ryan Yarborough join Tim Hill as a matchup lefty? — Brendan Kuty
Red Sox: Rotation and bullpen question marks
Concerns in the back end of the rotation and middle of the bullpen could add up down the stretch. The rotation is led by Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito, but the Red Sox need more than three starters to get to the postseason. Rookie Payton Tolle is on an extra day of rest and trade deadline acquisition Dustin May has struggled mightily. The Red Sox have used two bullpen games in recent weeks with the latest on Wednesday going poorly. Meanwhile, Crochet has never pitched more innings in his career and will be monitored down the stretch.
The back of the bullpen is locked down with Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock, but the rest of the pen has been in flux. Justin Slaten is coming off an injury and building back up. Justin Wilson and Greg Weissert have been better more often than not. Steven Matz has seen some high-leverage spots alongside Brennan Bernardino, but questions remain. Zack Kelly pitched well in his first game since being recalled on Wednesday, but given he threw 63 pitches in relief, won’t be available for several days. The Red Sox also placed Jordan Hicks on the injured list with shoulder inflammation on Thursday. — Jen McCaffrey
Mariners: Starting pitching (especially on the road)
The Mariners have a well-earned reputation as one of baseball’s better pitching teams. But the uncomfortable truth is that the team doesn’t pitch well on the road.
The Mariners had a 4.69 road ERA through Wednesday to rank 26th in the majors, ahead of only the also-ran Angels, Marlins, Nationals and Rockies. Yet their 3.10 home ERA is the best in the sport. It’s welcome news, then, that the Mariners finish with 13 of 19 games at T-Mobile Park after this weekend’s series in Atlanta — but those six road games could be critical, as they’ll visit the still-lurking Royals and the AL West-leading Astros.
Wherever they pitch, though, the Mariners’ arms need to live up to their reputation. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have combined for a 4.57 ERA since the All-Star break, well below Seattle’s standards. — Tyler Kepner
(Top photo of Christian Yelich: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)