Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 1’s Monday Night Football game between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings.

Soldier Field gets the lights and the stakes, and the market sets the stage. DraftKings lists Minnesota -1.5 with a 43.5 total, reflecting respect for Brian Flores’ defense and uncertainty around J.J. McCarthy’s debut. Minnesota swept Chicago last year, 30-27 in overtime and 30-12, piling up 781 yards at 5.74 yards per play. Kevin O’Connell’s team finished 14-3 and 11-6-0 against the spread, including 6-2 on the road. Chicago went 5-12 but 8-7-2 ATS, then rebuilt the core. Enter head coach Ben Johnson, a revamped interior, and a second-year reset for Caleb Williams under prime-time pressure. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 1’s Monday Night Football game between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Caleb Williams gets help that he lacked last year, when he got bludgeoned for 68 sacks, the league’s highest total. Chicago imported two-time All-Pro Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman to blunt Brian Flores’ pressure looks, and that investment pairs with a skill group built to win fast. Williams threw three touchdowns with no interceptions against Minnesota last season, and he’s logged 23+ completions in each of his last three home games versus NFC North opponents. D.J. Moore brings bankable volume — 98 catches, 966 yards, and 62+ yards in nine of his last 10 divisional games — while Rome Odunze adds 734 yards on 101 targets as a sturdy intermediate outlet. Tight ends Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland are natural blitz beaters; Johnson has already said Kmet earned his trust quickly, I imagine Loveland’s involvement will lean toward receptions, not blocking.

The matchup for the improved Chicago front is immediate and unforgiving because Minnesota’s defense travels: Andrew Van Ginkel posted 11.5 sacks and Jonathan Greenard added 12, Blake Cashman stacked 111 tackles, and Byron Murphy produced six interceptions for a unit that finished second in defensive EPA per play and tied for the league lead in takeaways. That’s why Chicago’s cleaner pockets and defined hot answers matter — to turn Flores’ aggression into chunk yards after the catch instead of negative plays.

Minnesota’s opening script probably protects J.J. McCarthy while stressing Chicago’s weakest 2024 split. The Bears ranked 26th in rush EPA per play (-0.025) and allowed 136.3 rushing yards per game, so Kevin O’Connell can lean on Aaron Jones’ 1,138 rushing yards at 4.5 per carry and 51 catches for 408 yards, with Jordan Mason adding 789 rushing yards at 5.2 per attempt. That run-first tilt sets the table for a measured play-action menu and a red-zone identity that already skews pass; Minnesota ranked top-three in neutral red-zone pass rate and scored 30 points in both meetings with Chicago last season.

When they do throw, coverage tilts toward all-world Justin Jefferson’s 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns, but Jordan Addison’s suspension funnels chain-moving targets to T.J. Hockenson, who’s cleared 50 receiving yards in seven of his last eight against NFC North foes. O’Connell’s groups start on schedule — the Vikings have scored the first touchdown in eight straight Week 1 games and are 11-1 straight-up as road favorites under him — and the overall pace projection (third-fastest of Week 1 at 131.4 offensive plays) supports a steady dose of Jones/Mason early with Jefferson/Hockenson stress late, asking McCarthy to take layups, protect the ball, and let a top-five defense compress the field.

Trends lean toward a tighter scoreboard even with star power. Minnesota’s 2024 -0.091 defensive EPA/play and Flores’ units still travel. Seven of Chicago’s last eight home openers have gone under the total. Minnesota’s last seven Monday games as favorites also landed under. Chicago held opponents to 217.9 passing yards per game, and Dennis Allen brings disguise-heavy structures. The Vikings are 11-1 straight-up as road favorites under O’Connell, yet rookie quarterbacks often start conservatively on the road. Chicago’s defense features T.J. Edwards with 129 tackles and Tremaine Edmunds with 110, plus a downhill tone-setter in Jaquan Brisker.

Vikings vs. Bears pick, best bet

Byron Murphy’s six picks (see what I did there?) headline that purple secondary which so punishes mistakes; remember, they led the league in takeaways. Since 2020, rookie quarterbacks making their first road start are 2-15, reinforcing a conservative script expectation. Soldier Field has been an under venue as well: six of the last seven Monday games there stayed beneath the number. Chicago’s 2024 profile skewed tight — a league-high five losses by three or fewer — further narrowing the scoring range. Up front, the Bears added Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo to complement Montez Sweat, a trio built to cap explosives and force kicks.

As far as props, I’m eyeing a quarterback play. Let’s attack Caleb Williams 22+ completions (ladder to 24+, if you’re feeling risky) as a market answer to Flores’ blitzes. As mentioned above, Williams has logged 23+ completions in each of his last three home games against NFC North opponents. Flores’ pressure packages invite hot reads to Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, and quick hitters to D.J. Moore. I could see some screens to Swift, and even rookie Luther Burden III, should he suit up.

Game flow likely rewards patience, field position, and red-zone execution rather than explosives. Ben Johnson’s scripted openers should find completions, but sustained drives will be hard-earned against Minnesota’s upgraded front. Kevin O’Connell will lean on Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, then use play-action to isolate Justin Jefferson. That tempo shortens the game, caps possessions, and compresses variance. With the total on DraftKings at 43.5, the number asks for sustained efficiency from two evolving offenses. And it’s the sustenance, I think, that’ll be too much.

Final score: Bears 23 – Vikings 20. Chicago ranked 27th in red-zone touchdown rate in 2024, often settling for field goals — an under-friendly trait in close games. Minnesota finished second against the run last year, a matchup that nudges Chicago toward shorter throws and longer chains. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have also stayed under the closing total. Minnesota averaged just 3.9 first-quarter points in 2024, a subtle drag on early scoring that supports a lower total.

Having said that—feel free to hit Bears ML, too. I probably will, eventually. My strongest statistical lean, however, is the under. And so that’s why it’s my primary bet for the game.

Best bet: Bears vs. Vikings u43.5 total points (-105)

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Best prop lean: Caleb Williams 22+ completions (+120)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!