This September is looking forward to another weekend that’s bound to overperform at the box office led by Crunchyroll/Sony Pictures’ Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle, which is expected to overtake Warner Bros’ 1999 Pokemon: The First Movie ($31M) as the highest opening ever for an anime film stateside.
Tracking, distribution sources, et al are wild with their projections. Sony is forecasting $35M at 3,300 theaters boosted by Imax and PLF showtimes. We told you that advance ticket sales in their first four days back in mid-August stood at $10M; again, an advance ticket record for an anime movie. We’re told that figure is way higher now, many telling it’s at least $15M+. Other sources believe that Infinity Castle has the potential to open to $45M-$60M+ over Friday to Sunday. Previews begin Thursday at 4PM at 2,800 theaters.
Here’s why some are downplaying the pic’s outlook: anime moviegoers are a devoted bunch who buy upfront and attend early. There’s hardly any walk-up business on these movies, and most of the tickets are already sold. This isn’t a movie such as Sinners or Minecraft where there will be an expansion of the audience on Saturday night and beyond. That said, we understand that advance ticket sales for Infinity Castle extend into next weekend. First choice is strong with men and women under 25.
What’s the big deal about Infinity Castle? It’s the first in a trilogy of movies, this one focusing on the Demon Slayer Corps who are drawn into the Infinity Castle, where Tanjiro, Nezuko, and the Hashira face the terrifying Upper Rank demons in a desperate fight while the final battle against Muzan Kibutsuji begins. Per Box Office Mojo, the offshore gross on Infinity Castle, led by Japan which counts $213M, stands close to $273M.
Infinity Castle is the first of six wide entries this weekend, in what’s expected to be the best mid-September frame post Covid, outstripping the same point last year which made $93.7M per Box Office Mojo. This weekend could be around $114M.
New Line Cinema/Warner Bros. Pictures
Among the big players are New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites which looks to ease around -65% (similar to 2018’s The Nun) in its second weekend to $29.1M after its fourth biggest opening for September ($84M).
Next, we have Focus Features’ Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, which is eyeing women well over 55, at $15M-$20M at 3,692 sites. Tracking indicates that in first choice overall and women over 25, that Grand Finale is on par with the previous 2022 installment, A New Era, which opened to $16M and pulled in 73% women, 48% over 55. Similar to moviegoers’ rush to Conjuring last weekend, the fanbase of the British period IP will be out in full force as they too believe it’s the final installment. Why the potential to overindex? Because the Downton Abbey core is no longer concerned about Covid like they were with New Era. The first movie based on the Julian Fellowes PBS series opened to a massive $31M back in 2019 and ended its run close to $97M domestic. The two movies grossed $287M global to date. Rotten Tomatoes critics score is 89% fresh. Simon Curtis directs off Fellowes’ screenplay. Previews start today at 7PM followed by Thursday early shows beginning at 2PM. Grand Finale cost under $50M net.
Murray Close/Lionsgate/Courtesy Everett Collection
Lionsgate has Francis Lawrence’s R-rated feature take of the Stephen King novel, The Long Walk, starring Cooper Hoffman, Garrett Wareing Charlie Plummer and David Jonsson. First choice, though not huge, is best with men and women over 25 for what’s expected to be a $10M+ take for the net $20M production. Great reviews on Rotten Tomatoes for this one at 97% certified fresh.
Bleecker Street’s release of Rob Reiner’s long-awaited sequel to 1984’s cult mockumentary, This Is Spinal Tap — Spinal Tap II: The End Continues — is looking at low-to-mid single digits at 1,919 theaters. This is a meaningful, Easter Egg-filled comedic treat for all Gen-X men from the 1980s and older, and the ultimate play on this sequel, like the original movie, is in ancillaries. That’s where This Is Spinal Tap became a hit, and a long-lasting phenomenon in Christopher Guest, Michael McKean and Harry Shearer’s live concerts, never to ever be judged upon its domestic gross of $5.8M. Part two follows the disgruntled British rockers coming together for a reunion concert in New Orleans after being estranged.
Last night’s Hollywood premiere drew a standing ovation with a comedy-who’s-who in attendance at the American Cinematheque Egyptian including Jack Black, Jay Roach, Nick Kroll, Paul Feig, Billy Crystal, Jamie Lee Curtis, Jordan Peele, and former 20th Century Fox and Paramount Film Boss Jim Gianopulos. Spinal Tap performed Tuesday night on Jimmy Kimmel Live.
Disney has the 30th anniversary re-release of Toy Story at 1,300 theaters in the low single digits, while Fathom Entertainment has The Sound of Music 60th Anniversary booked at 1,206 theaters.