Good morning,

What is wrong with the Padres?

Well, as Mike Shildt might say, I don’t know how to answer the question other than how I already have.

Here’s an update:

  • They went 0-for-14 with runners in scoring position while losing the past two games by a total of three runs.
  • They hit one home run to their opponents’ five over the past three games.
  • They scored two runs on Tuesday and one run last night.
  • Good pitching and defense kept them close.

That summation could serve as a microcosm of their season as well.

Yet, here they are still firmly in playoff position despite losing 11 of their past 16 games.

I wrote in my game story (here) from last night’s 2-1 loss to the Reds about how the Padres view the past five games differently than the 11 before that.

They contend it matters that they are playing cleaner and with more energy.

While they would not specifically comment on a team breakfast they had Saturday, there were some interesting quotes from Shildt and players about how they have viewed the games the team has played since.

One of those quotes:

“Everybody cares when they come to the field, and we care about winning,” Jackson Merrill said. “We can care all we want. When it comes to performing, that’s a different type of care. You know, it’s going up there with a plan, not getting away from it and staying with it and doing it. I feel like tonight we were right there at the end. The last inning, we just needed to execute a little more. … We cared today, and we put our hearts out there. And that’s what we care about. Don’t give a (expletive) about the loss. We don’t, because we’ve got more games coming up.”

The road ahead

The Padres are three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West for the first time since Aug. 9.

And remember, making up three games is not enough. The Padres would have to finish a game ahead of the Dodgers after losing the season series, which is the first tiebreaker.

One of the things Padres players were reminded of Saturday was that their focus needs to be on themselves and not the teams around them. No such mandate exists for the rest of you, and perhaps your focus should shift from the quest to win the NL West.

With last night’s loss, the Padres’ playoff chances decreased by one half of a percentage point to 98%, according to FanGraphs.

That projection is based on the standings, FanGraphs’ projections for a team’s performance and the remaining schedule and running 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season. So that means that in about 19,600 of those simulations, the Padres made the playoffs.

The Padres’ playoff odds have dropped a mere 1.5 percentage points since Aug. 23, which was the day before they began their current 5-11 run.

That is the power of the calendar. Time generally runs out on teams that are doing the chasing while every passing day is like a win intself for the teams being chased.

For illustrative purposes, let’s say the Padres continue to flounder and go 6-10 the rest of the way.

In order for the Padres to not make the postseason in that case, the Reds would have to go 11-5 or the Giants 12-4. That is because the Reds can finish tied with the Padres by virtue of having won the season series between the two teams while the Padres won the season series against the Giants. Also, the Padres would win a three-way tie based on having the best winning percentage in games between the three clubs.

We cannot know how it would turn out should the Mets somehow figure into a tie involving the Padres, because the teams have three games remaining.

Manny dragging

Manny Machado is gassed. That is not even debatable.

He said recently he should have taken a day off earlier in the season.

He did not. And the Padres did not make him.

And now, the 33-year-old third baseman, who has been in the starting lineup for all 146 of the Padres’ games, including the past 21 at third, is simply running on fumes.

Machado acknowledged it will be beneficial to get some rest when the Padres clinch a playoff spot.

“Yeah, I mean, that’d be nice for sure,” he said Tuesday night. “But let’s get there first. We’re far away from that, so I’m not trying to think too far ahead. We’ve still got a tough stretch to go and a lot of important games to be played.”

The Padres might not be able to wait that long.

Machado was 0-for-4 last night and has two hits in his past 25 at-bats. In that span, he has struck out as many times (seven) as he has hit the ball hard.

And if you’re looking for how the Padres could have won a couple more times this month, consider that their No.3 hitter went 0-for-2 with runners in scoring position in a one-run loss on Sept. 1, 0-for-1 in last night’s one-run loss and has one hit in his past 13 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

Here is an updated look at his numbers since Aug. 1:

I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter (here) about Machado’s struggles and how he is generally at his best at this point in the season.

Well, consider that due to various maladies, he did not play as much in any of the past five seasons.

The 2020 season was just 60 games. He missed six days at the end of May 2021 with a knee issue. He sat 10 days at the end of June 2022 with an ankle injury. He missed the last half of May 2023 with a hand injury and then got regular days off at the end of the season due to his elbow injury. He began the season as the Padres’ designated hitter in 2024 as he worked back from elbow surgery.

This season, he was at least getting regular DH days until the trade deadline brought Ryan O’Hearn and Gavin Sheets fought his way back into the lineup.

There is talk by some in the organization of Machado getting a day off this week. The way he looks lately, it should probably be today.

One day, though, probably isn’t going to do much for him. Perhaps he can rest Sunday’s series finale and get the bonus of the Padres not playing Monday.

MVPivetta

Generally, we are considering position players when we discuss who a team’s most valuable player is.

Perhaps, especially given the fact there has not been a position player to separate himself as the most valuable over the course of this season, we should consider Nick Pivetta as the Padres’ MVP for 2025.

Mike Shildt said this after Pivetta threw seven scoreless innings last night: “Just what we needed, just what we would have hoped.”

That could be a description of his season too.

Last night was Pivetta’s seventh time going seven innings and the fifth time he did so without allowing  a run. That is not only four more times going seven scoreless than any other Padres pitcher but the most in the National League.

Pivetta is 11-5 in games he starts after a Padres loss. That is with the Padres losing the past two times he has started despite his allowing three runs in six innings on Friday at Coors Field and throwing last night’s gem.

He has 19 quality starts, third most in the NL. His 2.73 ERA ranks sixth, his 0.95 WHIP third and his .191 average allowed first.

He essentislly had to do what he did last night, too, with the Padres’ bullpen down its three higher-leverage arms plus Wandy Peralta.

“We basically had four to five guys available for tonight’s game in the bullpen,” Shildt said. “And he knew that going in, and he met the challenge. And that’s what this is about this time of year. … We know Nick’s going to meet the challenge.”

Depleted

Pivetta could not do enough to overcome Tuesday’s 4-2 loss or the loss of Jason Adam.

Adam is lost for the season. And Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller and Robert Suarez pitched Monday and Tuesday.

That left Adrian Morejón as the lone high-leverage reliever available.

So Kyle Hart came on to start the eighth with the Padres ahead 1-0.

He ended up being charged with the game-tying run, and Morejón was charged with the loss.

But neither pitched horribly.

Hart got two outs around a bunt single by TJ Friedl.

Morejón, whose 89.7% rate of stranding inherited runners was second best in the major leagues, took over with Friedl on second base after he moved there on a groundout.

A single by Elly De La Cruz through the right side of the infield tied the game, as Friedl sprinted home from second base and got his hand on the plate just in time to beat a throw from Fernando Tatis Jr. De La Cruz then stole second and scored on Austin Hays’ single flared into center field.

Give Yuki Matsui credit for keeping the Padres in the game after he took over for Morejón with two on and one out in the ninth inning and walked the bases loaded before getting the final two outs.

Tidbits

  • Tatis has homered four times in his past 65 plate appearances after having not done so in his previous 128 plate appearances, which was the longest drought of his career.
  • The state of the Padres’ offense lately can be partially appreciated by understanding that Tatis, the team’s lead-off batter has just a .297 on-base percentage during his eight-game on-base streak. During his 11-game on-base streak from Aug. 18 to 30, Tatis reached base at a .423 clip.
  • Ramón Laureano is reaching base at a .370 clip during his 11-game hitting streak.
  • Jake Cronenworth was 1-for-2 with a walk last night and has reached base multiple times in 10 of his past 16 games. He has a .468 OBP during that stretch.
  • Sheets hit his 26th double of the season last night, which is two more than he had in any of his previous four big-league seasons.
  • Their 15 hits against the Reds the past three days were tied for the Padres’ second-lowest total in any three-game series this season.
  • The Padres have lost  six of their past nine one-run games and are now 28-22 in games decided by a single run.
  • You can read in Jeff Sanders’ game preview (here) about another change in the lineup and a positive update on Xander Bogaerts.
  • Sanders also wrote an interesting story (here) on today’s starting pitcher for the Padres.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.