By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn
This article is part of our Rankings & Tiers series, an evaluation across sport about the key players, front offices, teams, franchises and much more.
If you’ve ever wondered how challenging it can be to assemble our NHL Player Tiers, take it from two of our returning panelists.
“Every year, it gets a little easier,” a data analyst said.
“This is the third time we’ve done this, and the list seems tighter and tighter each time,” a coach said.
Clear as mud. That’s the task, though — blending new-school data with old-school wisdom to create the definitive list of hockey’s greatest stars. If everyone had the same take on a player’s individual merits, how they stack up against each other, or the difficulty level of the project overall, it wouldn’t be half as interesting.
With that in mind, we’re back with a sixth installment of our list of the top players in the league. For the second straight season, we’ve separated 150 players into five groups: MVP cornerstones, franchise pillars, All-Star candidates, the true stars and elite support. Last year, we added a fifth tier and 25 slots and incorporated goaltenders for the first time, and we carried that template into 2025.
For those new here, this isn’t your typical ranking — because it isn’t really a ranking. It’s a hierarchy, one in which grouping players together is the primary feature and is meant to illustrate the diversity of viewpoints within the sport. There are levels to the league and sub-levels within each basket of players. While one player may be more well-liked by some over another, another group may see it differently.
“You can sit and argue all day about some of these guys,” one general manager said. “They’re all good players, and some of it’s personal preference.” Not that there’s anything wrong with personal preference, either. Enough expressions of preference create a sort of consensus, one that celebrates the uncertainty that comes with ranking players. Sometimes it’s definitive — we know Connor McDavid is better than, well, everyone. Sometimes it’s not, where the space between Thomas Harley and Jake Sanderson still puts them in the same tier.
As for the process: We start with a modeled output based on projected Net Ratings, an all-in-one stat that aims to measure a player’s contribution to his team’s goal differential. It combines a player’s production with his play-driving ability and accounts for the difficulty of his usage — zero means an average player and plus-10 means an elite one. First-line forwards start at plus-five while top-pair defensemen start a little lower, at plus-three. An average starting goalie comes in at plus-seven.
Then, after hours of internal deliberation, shuffling and re-shuffling based on where we believe the modeled output feels like it missed the mark, we settle on our initial tiered groups. That’s what lands in the hands of our panelists, who use it as a baseline for their own lists. Players move up, players move down, players are added and players are removed. Most follow-up calls start the same way: “Tell us where we’re wrong.”
Our group of panelists has never been larger. This year, we spoke to more than 20 people inside the game — general managers, executives, coaches, scouts and data analysts, all in fairly equal amounts. We also, for the first time, included a handful of former NHL players.
Through hours and hours’ worth of conversation — we’re lucky to have them, by the way — we record every bit of analysis, every instance of shuffling, every time a source says anything as simple as “I have Player X farther up,” and we reconvene. This year, incorporating that input into our final list took a full day’s worth of meetings. After all that, we write.
The end result, we hope, is a prime example of quantifiable data combined with qualitative opinions, and the most vetted list of the NHL’s best available for public consumption.
We have our reasons for why each player lands where they do, found below along with projected stats for next season — all in a filterable list by team, position and age.
Enjoy, and let the debates begin.
Tier Tier 1 — MVP Tier 2 — Franchise Tier 3 — All-Star Tier 4 — Star Tier 5 — Support
Team ANA BOS BUF CAR CBJ CGY CHI COL DAL DET EDM FLA L.A MIN MTL N.J NSH NYI NYR OTT PHI PIT S.J SEA STL T.B TOR UTA VAN VGK WPG WSH
Pos C D G LW RW
Age 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
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Tier 1 — MVP
A top 10 player. Someone who is very likely to get serious trophy consideration at season’s end and whom championship-caliber teams are built around. The best player on almost any team in the league.
As usual, McDavid belongs in a tier of his own; call it Tier 1A+, a unanimous placement within the hockey world. McDavid stands alone at the top of the pyramid. “McDavid is his own guy,” one exec said. For our purposes, he’s the only player who isn’t sorted alphabetically within his tier.
McDavid remains a transcendent force in hockey as the league’s most dominant player. McDavid’s ability to create offense at the highest level in every which way remains untouched, and his off-puck work grows every year. Even if he’s allowed others to take turns with the Hart Trophy the last few years, McDavid is still the undisputed best of the best.
There isn’t a single player in his stratosphere that’s better with the puck on his stick, which has led to seven straight seasons scoring at a 120-point pace or higher. When 120 points — a mark reached by only seven other players in the cap era — is a player’s downside, it’s obvious we’re talking about an exceptional level of greatness.
And yet the lack of a Stanley Cup can’t be ignored. It’s not for a lack of trying, as McDavid has found an even higher gear in back-to-back trips to the Final. He’s proven his worth, even without a ring. Still, until he actually achieves ultimate glory, the blank space in his trophy case will continue to cast a shadow.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
For four years, there was no real question about Draisaitl’s placement on this list. The names around him — Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Aleksander Barkov and Cale Makar — might’ve changed, but Draisaitl himself stood firm in Tier 1B, for better or worse.
This year, finally, things have changed. Draisaitl has joined his (slightly) higher-profile running mate in Tier 1 and firmed up his place (alongside MacKinnon in particular) as a contender for the “second-best forward in the league” title belt.
Make no mistake: there’s still a gap between Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. It’s larger, in fact, than the one between Draisaitl and the rest of the MVP tier. Last season, though, he dialed up his offense (3.79 all-situations points per 60 to 4.16) enough to make gains on Kucherov and comfortably pass MacKinnon, and he managed it while having the best defensive season of his career. We dinged him a bit on both fronts in our last ranking, and he answered the bell.
That improved production and a more substantive two-play were enough to lift him into our top five. It also, according to many of our panelists, pushes him ahead of MacKinnon despite the latter’s all-world skating and explosiveness.
“I think Leon makes better plays without the puck,” one scout said, “and even with the puck, I think he’s more cerebral and visionary than Nathan is.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Year after year, MacKinnon shows that he is one of the best players in the world.
He’s a force. He’s dominant. He’s outright powerful. He races down the ice with such speed and intention. And he’s also incredibly skilled.
“When he puts his head down and shifts gears, I think McDavid is the only one that can keep up with him,” a scout said.
Last year, he had a different burden than usual. He had to be a consistent threat as the team around him changed and evolved throughout the season. That could explain the dip from his scoring heights in 2023-24, when he had 51 goals and 89 assists. Still, his 116 points last season were second in the league, only to Nikita Kucherov.
The next best Avs forward in scoring after MacKinnon? Mikko Rantanen’s 64 points in 49 games. After that, it was Artturi Lehkonen’s 45, which trailed the Avs’ ace by 71 points.
That’s just one way to highlight his value in Colorado. That game-breaking ability is why he’s a staple in the MVP race, and in 1A for the second straight year. MacKinnon has consistently been his team’s backbone, and that was especially true in a challenging last season.
“He’s not McDavid, but he’s one of the very few players who could touch a puck at any spot on the ice and turn it into a goal,” an executive said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Initially, we placed Makar in Tier 1B. To our panelists, that stuck out. Egregiously so, in fact.
One coach said, given the choice, he’d rather play against MacKinnon than Makar. A scout called him “by far” the best defenseman in the league. An executive, flat-out, called Makar’s placement in the lower group “crazy.”
“McDavid is at a different level (as a forward),” they said. “I think Cale is that version of Connor on the back end. And I don’t think it’s even close.”
Point made. Makar’s otherworldly skill, best-in-class production and reliability in tough minutes against tough competition helped create some daylight, for now, between himself and Quinn Hughes. No defenseman produced more points or created more chances. Very, very few played against tougher minutes, and none excelled the way Makar does. Call it a bounce-back from 2023-24 if you must.
Just think twice about using him as the model for position. He’s simply too good, another coach said.
“If we’re gonna talk to a young D, if you show them what Cale Makar does on the blue line, you’re saying, ‘That’s not where we’re at,'” the coach said. “The physical tools that guy has are that ridiculous.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Selke-caliber play in the regular season and playoffs is the new normal for Barkov, who lands here for the second straight season. He once again proved that he was one of the best all-around players in all three zones.
Barkov faced some of the toughest competition in the league, and still put up sparkling numbers. The Panthers only allowed 1.93 expected goals against per 60 in his minutes and an even lower goals-against rate of 1.81.
Between his puck retrievals in the defensive zone and pressure in the offensive zone, Barkov shuts down his opponents. And he forces them to play defense against his playmaking, which helped him reach the 70-point mark for the fourth straight year. Just like 2024, that translated to the playoff environment, with back-to-back championships. So while he doesn’t have the flash of the 1A centers, his all-around game still fuels the Panthers.
“If you asked me for the top reasons why (the Panthers) are a beast, I’d say 1-2 — and I don’t know what order — are Barkov and (Gustav Forsling),” a coach said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Coming off his second straight Art Ross Trophy and first Ted Lindsay Award, Kucherov might just be the most brilliant offensive player of his generation. Nobody, at even strength or on the power play, thinks the game quite like him.
“When you look at the other forwards in (Tier 1A), he has more pure vision, touch, skill and feel with the puck on his stick than (MacKinnon and Draisaitl),” a scout said. “(He’s) a tactical surgeon. He baits guys into one thing and then does something else. … At times you want him to be a little more focused away from the puck defensively. But if he’s getting you 110 points a year, who cares?
In the big picture, nobody. The Tier discussion, though, can be tough — so if you’re surprised to see Kucherov in a group behind MacKinnon and Draisaitl, you’re not alone. Our panel was largely split on whether to bump him up to 1A. One scout suggested creating a special Kucherov-only group. A coach called him “easily” as good as MacKinnon. A data analyst cited the “holy s—” factor he brings to the ice.
Ultimately, though, positional value and necessary nitpicking with his defensive play tipped the scales. There are centers in Tier 1B. There is a defenseman. There is only one Kucherov. He’s the best winger on the planet, and his placement reflects as much.
“He’s as dynamic as anybody,” a general manager said. “(Among wingers) he’s on a different level.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
If there’s one takeaway from Hughes’ 2024-25 season, it’s that he’s a lot closer to Cale Makar than he is to anybody else. Whatever small gap there is between the two best defensemen in the world, the space between them and No. 3 is substantially larger.
“I feel like he carried that whole f—ing team. He pulled them as far as he could,” one former player said. “Makar is 1A and he’s 1B. He should be close. He should be really close. … Those two guys are on a different planet than everybody else.”
The question then becomes whether Hughes can usurp Makar. The opportunity is there, considering his puck possession gifts in transition and in the offensive zone. He’s an engine. But Hughes’ ability to create chances and score still remains a touch behind Makar.
The bigger factor is defense. Yes, Hughes is much improved in that regard. But there aren’t many who will take him over Makar without the puck and the fact Hughes doesn’t take on tough matchup minutes is a factor.
Their results may be similar, but Hughes not being used in any situation is the difference between his new spot in 1B and Makar’s spot at the top of the pyramid.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
We could probably just copy and paste whatever we wrote for Matthews when he was in 1B two seasons ago. If Matthews’ worst — a 40-goal, 95-point pace while earning 60 percent of the goals in tough minutes — is still better than most players’ best, he’s still a no-doubt Tier 1 player.
The difference is we’re starting to see Matthews at his worst — at the back of the top 10 in Net Rating, rather than top three — a little too often. That drops him to 1B, which many surveyed felt was the right choice.
Health is becoming a huge factor in determining Matthews’ standing. It’s been enough of an issue to derail his chase for the Hart Trophy in 2022-23 and 2024-25 and leave him looking like a shade of himself by playoff time most years.
And yet Matthews’ full package is up there with anyone else’s. When he’s on, with a rare ability to blend near-goal-per-game scoring with incredible two-way dominance, only McDavid is above him. The Selke-Rocket combo is tough to beat.
“If you put a gun to my head and said I had to pick between him, Leon and MacKinnon, I might still take Matthews, it’s that close,” one exec said. “I would consider him in 1A, but I don’t have a problem (with 1B).”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
If Kaprizov didn’t miss half of last season, he may have taken home some hardware.
When he was first sidelined in late December, Kaprizov was second in goal scoring (23) and fourth in points (50). The Wild were in control in his five-on-five minutes, with a 56 percent expected goal rate and a 36-19 scoring edge. All of that contributed to an average game score of 2.01 that trailed only Kucherov.
“He’s such a hard worker and hunter that he ends up impacting the game at such a high level,” a coach said.
Kaprizov was an early MVP candidate at the time of his injury. Had he kept that pace up through 70-plus games — and there’s reason to think he would have considering what a difference-maker he returned to be with nine points in six Round 1 games against the Golden Knights — maybe he would be alongside Kucherov in 1B.
Until he actually does it, that is what separates the two wingers.
“I think Kirill comes back this year and is in the Hart conversation,” an executive said. “I think Kirill will have a better season than (David Pastrnak), but I think they’re on equal footing for this.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
No support? No problem. Pastrnak managed to do a lot with a little once again in Boston. His primary linemates were Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie and Elias Lindholm, and that really didn’t slow him down. Neither did a mid-season coaching change, or a bunch of roster turnover at the deadline.
Pastrnak responded to all of last year’s challenges with his third consecutive 100-point season.
“What Pastrnak did with that lineup last year is pretty incredible,” an executive said. “He had 106 points. The next closest guy on his team had 57 points. That is insane.”
What makes his season all the more impressive is how much damage he did at five-on-five. Pastrnak scored at a career-high pace of 3.13 points per 60, which helped make up for some power play dips. Along with his dangerous shot, he also upped his play in his transition last season.
That’s no question Pastrnak is MVP-worthy. But even with all the “wow factor” in his game, there’s still some separation from Kucherov.
“If you ask me, one, who I’d want to pay money to go see, and two, who scares me the most on the opponent’s bench, as wingers, it’d be Kucherov, then Pastrnak and Kaprizov,” a coach said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
A top 30 player. Someone who is the best player on a contending team or second best on a championship-caliber team. An unquestionably elite player.
When he saw where we’d initially placed Crosby — in Tier 2A, but in a group below Jack Hughes — one executive was alarmed, if not upset.
“It looks so weird not having Sidney Crosby up there,” he said. “He’s a top-five all-time player who continues to produce. To have him there, I don’t like that look.”
Neither did several other panelists — and ultimately, neither did we. Crosby is now in a group with Hughes and Jack Eichel. There’s an empty sub-tier after the top five centers (McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Barkov, Matthews) for a reason, but choosing between the three guys in 2A would’ve been unfair.
That’s a remarkable fact, given Crosby’s (well-documented) age of 38. You have to look all the way down at Artemi Panarin to find a forward who comes within seven years of him. His point production held steady last season, though his shot and scoring-chance contributions started to dip and his defensive impacts continued to drop.
Some of that is age. Some of it is on the quality of teammates. For now, very little of it matters.
“If Sid was on a different team,” one executive said, “he would still be thought of as a Tier 1 player.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
PIT
C
38
We have been waiting for Dahlin to fully embrace his top-five potential. Our parting words last year were that he had to show the full picture across a full season to return to Tier 2, and that’s exactly what he did in 2024-25. While he started in 2B this year, the insiders rightfully gassed him up to 2A.
As one analyst put it, he is an “all-situations, everything player.”
Dahlin drives play from the back end. He’s an elite puck retriever who helps shift play from defense to offense. Despite a heavy workload, he makes the Sabres a better team on both ends of the ice.
What holds him back most years? His surroundings.
“The team he’s on is such a downer, man. They’re so bad,” a coach said.
The key is looking through the chaos in Buffalo to see the palm trees.
“Dahlin is unbelievably good,” an executive said. “If he wasn’t playing for the Buffalo Sabres, he would be so much more appreciated around the league.”
“He shows up, he plays gritty, he lugs the mail, he defends well, he’s mobile, he’s a great skater,” a former player added. “Everything Makar does, this kid does. He just can’t put up 90 points because they f—in’ suck.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
BUF
D
25
Eichel’s placement, as with Crosby, initially stuck out for our panelists. Several argued that he should be, at least, in a group with Jack Hughes. We obliged them, dropping Hughes down to 2A.
Eichel is coming off the most productive offensive season of his career (94 points, 3.57 per 60 in all situations). He’s long been one of the best rush players in the game, with impact on five-on-five play that couldn’t be much better. Last summer, we said a 90-point season would be enough to move him up from Tier 2B. It was.
He also has “matured” as a two-way player, as one scout said, and is as capable as ever of leading a high-end contending team.
“I don’t think he is obsessed with offense to the degree he could be, from a risk standpoint,” another coach said — and he meant it as a compliment. “I think you saw that type of mindset when they won (the Stanley Cup in 2023). It’s like when you watch (Aleksander Barkov) play. ‘I’m gonna do what I have to do in this game.'”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
VGK
C
28
Conversations with our panelists made a few things particularly clear. One of them: Everybody loves Miro.
Even after a regular season cut short by injury, Heiskanen was argued up the list. Over the last several years, he’s shown high-end ability as a defender, a scoring-chance contributor and a puck-mover from the back end.
“In a typical year for him, it’s hard to find someone who is as dominant in both directions,” one executive said.
Initially, a dip in production put him in Tier 2B once again, a cut below at least four other defensemen. Several voters, though, said he belonged in the first group behind Makar and Hughes, and there was zero push to drop him any further. Many panelists believe Heiskanen and Rasmus Dahlin to be the third- and fourth-best defensemen in the league, and the final rankings reflect that.
For now, though, it’s tough to push Heiskanen any higher. While offensive production is often too highly weighted for defensemen, the best of the best simply do it at a much higher level than Heiskanen has ever managed, outside of a 73-point season in 2022-23. Last season, his 1.19 all-situations points per 60 were less than half of Makar’s and Hughes’. It’s also fair to wonder how much the rise of Thomas Harley in Dallas will cut into Heiskanen’s power-play time.
“That’s where the separation begins,” one former defenseman said. “Until he throws up 80 points and still plays at the same level, you can’t put him with (Makar and Hughes).”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
DAL
D
26
How is the MVP not in the MVP Tier? It’s a fair question, and we flip-flopped on the answer throughout the process.
Hellebuyck’s regular season, of course, should’ve been enough. He won the Vezina and Hart trophies with a .925 save percentage (second in the league only to part-time starter Anthony Stolarz), nearly 50 goals saved above expected (about 20 more than second place), eight shutouts and 47 wins in 63 starts.
Then, unfortunately, came the playoffs. Hellebuyck, for the second straight year, collapsed. Winnipeg somehow won a series in which he was pulled three times, and he finished the postseason with an .866 save percentage. If he were mediocre, his spot in Tier 1C wouldn’t bring any debate. Instead, we got … that. “I was at a loss for words,” one executive said. “He changes games for them, and then in the playoffs, he wasn’t even average, he was poor.”
For most of our panel, as it related to the MVP tier, his performance was disqualifying. There’s a certain amount of dissonance in the implication that there won’t be any MVP-caliber goaltenders for 2025-26, but there are also legitimate concerns about each and every goalie who’d otherwise be in the conversation, with Hellebuyck leading the way. It can change quickly, but for now, it’s reality.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
WPG
G
32
Hughes, for a second straight season, started out in the MVP Tier. The consensus from our panelists — though it wasn’t quite universal — is that for all his offensive gifts, the Devils’ young star doesn’t yet have the resume necessary to separate himself from players such as Eichel and Crosby.
A big part of that is Hughes’ health; he’s now had consecutive seasons ended by shoulder issues that required surgery. “A 100-percent available Jack is a special player,” one executive said, “but he’s only had one of those seasons in six.”
That makes the projection element a real challenge. Shoulder injuries can lead to more shoulder injuries, as one panelist said. Avoiding them is a matter of luck but also can be one of physical maturation — and that, regardless, is another area for improvement. Several panelists brought up Hughes’ rough outing at the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, pre-injury, as an example.
“When the game rose to that level, where you’re playing so many great players, he just wasn’t quite strong enough and his game wasn’t quite mature enough,” one coach said.
What’s clear, though, is that a healthy version of Hughes, even still physically maturing, can be in the thick of the MVP discussion. He might not have Eichel’s two-way impact or Crosby’s living-legend label, but he’s also 24 years old, with an offensive toolbox rivaled only by players ahead of him on the list. If he stays on the ice, expect him to move up.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
N.J
C
24
It’s difficult to deny Tkachuk’s impact on the Panthers. Everything changed once he arrived and he’s become the poster boy for what a winning player looks like. He’s been the difference in a new era of Florida hockey.
While Tkachuk has struggled to match his 109-point campaign in 2022-23 that made him a Hart finalist, his ability to drive play in-zone remains elite. Few players create more offense off the forecheck than Tkachuk does and he is an incredibly gifted playmaker. He’s also a menace off the cycle, a major cog in shaping Florida’s current identity.
As large as Tkachuk’s impact has been, he has taken a step back from the Tier 1 level. He didn’t look like his usual dominant self in the playoffs after returning from injury and it remains to be seen how he’ll look after starting the season on the shelf.
When he’s on and healthy, Tkachuk is a problem. But for a player whose skating is already a concern, some caution needs to be exercised.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
FLA
RW
27
Each of Marner’s last three seasons have felt exactly the same. He scores at roughly a 30-goal and 100-point pace, he shows enough defensive ability to warrant some Selke consideration, and then he wilts offensively when it matters most in the postseason. Marner is what he always is: A franchise playmaking winger with real big-game concerns. One analyst suggested he’s closer to Panarin than Tkachuk for that reason.
Those big-game concerns are not enough to bring him down from 2B. Marner still played at a point-per-game pace in last year’s playoffs and is quietly one of the best players in the league at upping his defensive game when it matters. Doing what he always does in the regular season, though, isn’t enough to bump him up to 2A.
With that being said, moving away from the spotlight and pressure of his hometown could do Marner a lot of favors. It might even be enough for him to finally deliver when it counts.
“I just think Mitch got beat up in Toronto and I think a bit unfairly,” one coach said. “I know he didn’t produce, but I’m telling you I think there’s going to be a day where he does.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
VGK
RW
28
Great as Point is — and he’s a cornerstone player on both a two-time Stanley Cup champion and Team Canada — we toyed with dropping him to the last rung of the franchise tier, owing mainly to Kucherov’s alpha dog status in Tampa Bay and Point’s own iffy defensive impacts.
Not so fast, said our panel. And it wasn’t a tough sell. Point’s offensive production and reputation for winning hockey leave him as the only center in Tier 2B, ahead of several other blue-chip players at the position. He remains one of the best all-situations scorers in the league, finishing fifth among regular players with 1.69 goals per 60 minutes, and continues to do crucial work as a puck-carrier for Kucherov and co.
While the Lightning have run into some early-round roadblocks of late, there’s little doubt among hockey people that Point’s ability to elevate his game is unchanged. “At 4 Nations,” a coach said, “his game rose and other guys’ dropped.”
“Is he as diligent defensively as he was when he was a young player? Probably not, but the team’s OK with that trade-off because they need the scoring more,” an exec said. “But once you get to a playoff, you’re getting the full Brayden Point experience.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
T.B
C
29
The knock on Rantanen was that he had the support of two of the best players in the world for most shifts, between MacKinnon and Makar.
Well, in 2024-25, the rest of the league got to see how he’d fare without them. Rantanen had to navigate a unique situation, with two in-season trades and the added stress of a contract situation.
In the regular season, his play wasn’t perfect. With the Hurricanes, he wasn’t as bad as his scoreline showed, but he wasn’t as sparkling as his underlying numbers, either. In Dallas, the production caught up, even as red flags appeared at five-on-five. But what will be remembered are his playoff heroics (and Game 7 hat trick) against his former club.
Indeed, Rantanen had his big-game moments without MacKinnon at his side — but while it was a meaningful, MVP-caliber performance, the rest of his resume falls short of Tier 1.
Even within Tier 2, there’s some separation. Rantanen doesn’t bring as many elements to the table as Tkachuk, so if he’s going to hang with him in 2A, the offense needs to be consistently elite below the surface and on the scoresheet, no matter his surroundings.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
DAL
RW
28
What separated Shesterkin and Hellebuyck last year? Playoff pedigree. Shesterkin’s difference-making play in the 2024 postseason (and Hellebuyck’s collapse) gave him the edge as the leading goalie in last season’s Tiers. This year, the Rangers’ No. 1 didn’t have the chance to perform in a high-pressure environment.
It wasn’t for a lack of trying. Shesterkin’s surface-level numbers may not show it, after he earned a career-low .905 save percentage. But when accounting for his workload, he was sixth in the league with almost 29 goals saved above expected in 61 games.
How difficult was his environment? Only two starters faced a higher rate of expected goals against: Lukas Dostal with the Anaheim Ducks, and Alexandar Georgiev, after the trade to San Jose.
That’s why Hellebuyck and Shesterkin are so closely ranked, despite having completely different seasons.
“Last year, being that the Rangers had such a down year — and I’m gonna give Hellebuyck his credit for the season — I’m gonna put Hellebuyck ahead of him,” a former goalie explained. “But I still think that Shesterkin is probably the best goalie in the league.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
NYR
G
29
From the outside, it’s understandable to think that Werenski’s level-up season in 2024-25 came out of nowhere. It’s also not entirely correct; Werenski’s point total (82) was gaudy, but he actually scored less at five-on-five (1.69 points per 60) than he did in 2023-24.
It’s a little more accurate to pin Werenski’s counting-stat breakout on his own improved health and the Blue Jackets’ improved power play — of which he was a huge part. His 25 power-play points tied Evan Bouchard for fifth among league defensemen.
Our point: Werenski has long been an outstanding player and offensive force, and now the context around him has shifted enough to make it more clear. Another similar season — as in, healthy and playing for a half-decent team — would push him further up the franchise tier and closer to consensus top-five status.
For now, he’s a step behind Miro Heiskanen and Rasmus Dahlin, owing to their more complete skill sets, but he’s still a high-end No. 1. Several panelists pushed to have him ahead of Adam Fox (we obliged) and in doing so, one called him the skater version of Hellebuyck.
“The spotlight is on him all the time,” the scout said. “Werenski’s got to play really well to get them over the hump. He’s got to be the guy, like Hellebuyck has got to be the guy.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
CBJ
D
28
After cruising through a few years in 2B, Aho has ticked down a subtier.
Last season’s scoring dip and negative five-on-five goal differential (for the first time in his career) factored into the decision. But it comes down to this being a player we’ve been waiting to see more from, not less.
“He probably fits into that group of they’re mostly a No. 1 center, but they’re just not in the absolutely elite, gonna-score-100-points category,” one analyst said.
Another analyst mentioned the risk of penalizing Aho because of the Hurricanes’ systematic strengths and his lower-key style. However, that is part of what separates the centers upward of 2C from those in and below it.
“I love Sebastian Aho,” one scout said. “I was looking at him, going, ‘Does he belong higher?’ I don’t think so, because the other names in that grouping have elements that he doesn’t.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
CAR
C
28
Rating Bouchard is … complicated. Few players sparked more discussion, which is understandable given the chasm between Bouchard’s dizzying highs and disappointing lows. You’re either a Bouchard guy or not a Bouchard guy — there is no room for indifference.
The case against him is not without merit. No defenseman in the top two tiers is more prone to The Big Mistake, with one executive labelling them as “catastrophic.” He’s not for the faint of heart.
“I see deficiencies on his back end and lackluster play, sometimes, with the puck,” one scout said.
“He’s got a lackadaisicalness to him that I think hurts him defensively,” one coach said.
Bouchard, for what it’s worth, has the same impact on goals against over the last two years as Makar. As big as Bouchard’s slip-ups can feel in the moment, the Oilers don’t feel them on the scoresheet to the degree they’re discussed. It also doesn’t seem that Bouchard gets the credit others do for elevating his game in the postseason. His big plays often outweigh his big mistakes.
Bouchard’s teammates complicate things. One executive said Bouchard’s numbers were “off the charts,” but wondered about the McDavid factor. Another called Bouchard’s numbers “just fine” on their own.
Some numbers purists will argue he belongs higher. Some traditional evaluators will argue he isn’t even close. But given his level for the last two seasons and what he’s shown in the playoffs, we’re going to stand firm with Bouchard’s placement in 2C — same as last year.
“A big part of this sport, because there’s so many random elements to it, is being able to maximize yourself and also who you’re on the ice with. He’s that (kind of player),” one coach said. “I happen to think he’d be good on any team.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
EDM
D
25
How far Fox should fall from 1C after his 2024-25 season was a hot topic among the insiders. We had him in 2A, but there was a ton of pushback to drop him further.
“His hockey sense is through the roof, but he’s just not the same Adam Fox that we saw,” one scout said, adding that he could rebound under Mike Sullivan.
“Maybe it’s just one year,” a coach added. “His athleticism will hurt him at some point because he’s not in a category with the real stars.”
His scoring was down, but that can be chalked up to the power play, since his five-on-five scoring rate was a career high. The bigger issue was that known weaknesses, his skating and agility, were exposed — especially at the 4 Nations.
But the 4 Nations isn’t the perfect measuring stick, either.
“You don’t have four lines of guys that can make you struggle,” the coach explained. “He struggles to pivot. If every forward on the ice is skating a million miles an hour, that’s tough for him. But that’s not real hockey.”
Outside of the 4 Nations, his season was far from perfect. He may not have been up to his usual heights at five-on-five, but the team around him likely played a part in that. His relative expected goal impacts, on both ends of the ice, were some of the best in the league among defensemen.
The likelihood of a rebound keeps him in franchise territory, as a defender who generally can outweigh his weaknesses with vision and anticipation.
“He’s moving his teammates around with what he does, and doing the same thing to the opposition in his own way. And if you look at this list, is there anybody that’s a ‘similar player’ to him?” the coach asked. “I don’t think so, which says a lot.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
NYR
D
27
Initially, we had Hischier placed a tick higher. Centers who combine his defensive ability while toying with point-per-game production are rare, and he elevated his game down the stretch with Jack Hughes absent from New Jersey’s lineup.
We weren’t far off from the panel’s consensus. Hischier is viewed as a player who projects a cut above the centers in Tier 3A, owing mainly to his exemplary work in brutal five-on-five defensive minutes. He hasn’t yet matched Brayden Point as a postseason player or overall offensive producer, though, creating a natural line of demarcation with the center rankings. One executive expressed some doubt that Hischier, “great” as he is, can rise to the level of dominance we’ve seen from the players above him, starting with Point.
Hischier also pays a bit of a tax for having Hughes ahead of him on the Devils’ depth chart. As it stands, the only No. 2 center to rank higher is Leon Draisaitl. Still, not bad company to keep.
“He does everything right,” one coach said. “He’s a stud.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
N.J
C
26
One of our goals was to sort out the mess of defensemen initially atop the All-Star tier. Morrissey and Jaccob Slavin earned a bump to Tier 2C.
Morrissey is, almost undeniably, the more well-rounded player. He’s not a defensive wizard on par with Slavin, but who is? Instead, he’s become one of the most complete blueliners in the league, with high-end skating and puck moving that deservedly puts him in a tier with Slavin.
Up against each other, as several panelists said, it becomes into a matter of preference — and plenty went with Morrissey. He’s second in points among defensemen over the last three seasons, and one of four (with Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes and Adam Fox) with at least 60 in each.
“You could say he’s maybe not quite a franchise guy, but he’s trending that way,” a GM said, also praising Morrissey’s performance at the 4 Nations tournament and in Winnipeg’s postseason.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
WPG
D
30
As one coach put it, Nylander is the “ultimate cheater.”
“He’s completely maxed out his player archetype. He’s figured out when he has to (play differently) than the way he wants. And he’s improving because of it.”
Nylander may not be perfect defensively, or even average, but his offensive work more than makes up for it. He’s grown into an incredibly dynamic player who knifes through the neutral zone with control at an elite rate and creates more chances than almost anyone. Last season, Nylander scored a career-high 45 goals, his third straight season above 40. That’s a feat only Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak and Brayden Point can also boast. He’s also one of eight players with four straight 80-point seasons.
Nylander’s consistent ability to produce is special and keeps him in Tier 2 for a second straight year. While more attention to detail without the puck would be nice, how Nylander plays is clearly working for him.
“If you look at where the puck is when he’s on the ice, it’s where you want it to be,” one coach said. “That’s all it comes down to for somebody like that.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
TOR
RW
29
Could this be Panarin’s last season in franchise territory? Some of our panelists think so.
“Panarin is on his way out of that group,” one coach said.
“He’s on the bubble and trending down because of his age,” another executive added.
Panarin could have drifted back to 3A, where he was back in 2023, but a full-tier drop is harsh considering the context of his situation. The Rangers fell into a downward spiral around him last season. His two mainstay linemates both regressed, and the power play grew stagnant.
While Panarin didn’t do enough to stop the bleeding in New York, he was still one of the few bright spots. His puck-moving ability remained a standout with his efforts in transition and passing. And he kept his shot volume up to maintain dimension in his offense.
If coach Mike Sullivan can get the Rangers back on track, Panarin could keep up with the Tier 2 group a little longer.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
NYR
LW
33
Shooting 24 percent and netting 57 goals was never going to be sustainable, but Reinhart impressively followed up with 39 goals and 81 points. These last couple of seasons serve as a reminder that expectations need to be recalibrated for players.
Pair three seasons of 80-plus points in four years in Florida and a defensive impact that gained some Selke love last spring, and Reinhart’s value is undeniable — and it translates in a playoff environment.
“All he does is score goals and put up points, and his hockey sense is through the roof,” a scout said. “He’d always been a better defensive player than anyone gave him credit for.”
Originally, we let all of that drive up his ranking — up to Tier 2A. The insiders provided a necessary reality check.
“I think you’re drinking the Panthers’ Kool-Aid there,” one analyst said.
“Reinhart is a great player as the sort of second- or third-best player on a top team,” another analyst added. “But if he is your best forward, are you feeling great about your chances?”
That’s what separates Reinhart from Tkachuk in Florida, and puts him a shade behind the wingers in 2B.
“Awesome player, but Rantanen and Marner are ahead,” one executive said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
FLA
RW
29
Hockey people love Slavin, arguably the game’s best defensive defenseman. Aside from a couple one-dimensional shutdown types (Mikey Anderson, Chris Tanev, Esa Lindell), Slavin’s projected plus-4 Defensive Rating is the highest in the league among defenders.
To be that effective without the puck while still adding some offensive utility as a result of strong puck-moving is rare. It’s what pushed Slavin to Tier 2, up from his initial spot in 3A.
“If you’re saying (Thomas Harley and Evan Bouchard) are elite offensive D, I would say Slavin is just as elite defensively,” one executive said. “He belongs in that franchise tier.”
That executive was not alone in that sentiment, and Slavin deserves a lot more credit for Carolina’s success. He’s the team’s engine from the back end, consistently winning extremely tough matchups at a high-end rate.
One thing that really sets Slavin apart is his active stick at his blue line. Over the last three seasons, no defender compares to Slavin’s consistent ability to deny entries and push play back the other way. Combine that with his other work in the defensive end and Slavin is a model for how to drive play without the puck.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
CAR
D
31
Last summer, Vasilevskiy was coming off both back surgery and one of the worst seasons of his career. That had our panel wondering whether the slide was on for the 31-year-old, two-time Stanley Cup champion.
Well, it’s not. In 2024-25, Vasilevskiy finished fourth in save percentage (.921) and in fifth in GSAx, and he might have been the best goaltender in the league after the 4 Nations break. That was enough to push him into the Franchise Tier, behind only Connor Hellebuyck and Igor Shesterkin. Some panelists thought he belonged higher, including an executive who said he’d take Vasilevskiy over Hellebuyck, the defending MVP.
The consensus, though, is clear: he’s not just a future Hall of Famer — he’s still one of the very best in the game.
“Vasilevskiy is just the guy that has done it all,” one former goalie said. “(He’s) one of the most consistent, one of most competitive (and) wants to play every night.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 2 — Franchise
T.B
G
31
Tier 3 — All-Star
A top 60 player. Someone who wouldn’t be the best player on a contender, but would be an important part of any contending or championship core. A strong top-line forward, above average No. 1 defenseman, or borderline top five goalie.
Considering Minnesota’s center depth behind Joel Eriksson Ek, strength on the wings is key. That’s what Boldy brings to the Wild. He may not be The Guy — that’s Kirill Kaprizov — but Boldy still plays an important role, whether he’s driving the second line or part of a top-loaded first line.
“He’s a very gifted shooter, passer, hockey sense,” an executive said. “It’s just the diversity of what he can do is what coaches love.”
Boldy has become an all-around threat, thanks to a growing defensive acumen to pair with his offensive ability, and now he’s entering his prime.
How high is his ceiling?
“He’s a winger, so he can’t ever be Draisaitl, but that’s the feeling I have with him,” the executive added. “He could score 50. His shot is just incredible (and) his playmaking is, too.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
MIN
LW
24
Guentzel was as advertised in his first season with the Lightning, adding another high-end piece to an impressive forward group. He had a career-high 41 goals, his third season with 40 or more, and along with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, he played on one of the league’s most dangerous lines.
Our question for the panel was where he stands in the pecking order with his linemates. The consensus: while he brings two-way substance, a high hockey IQ and enough skill to play with superstars, he’s still the third man. That stopped him from joining Kucherov and Point in Tiers 1 and 2.
“I think Jake Guentzel is an elite player,” one scout said, “but I don’t think he’s a guy that you build a franchise around.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
T.B
LW
30
“Is Hagel a franchise player?” We wrestled with that thought for a long time and asked our panel the same question. “I think that’s the right spot,” one coach said.
After scoring 90 points and tilting the ice heavily at both ends last season in all situations, Hagel’s value was undeniable. Hagel landed in the top 10 by Net Rating and his projected plus-15 for next season is right in line with Matthew Tkachuk. There’s a lot to love about his game.
“He’s a stud. What he does to win games is incredible,” one coach said. “Points. PK. He’ll fight. He’s an elite offensive defensive player. He hounds pucks so well.”
“If you look at the guys above him, I’d take him over Panarin. I’d take him over Reinhart, to be honest,” one executive said.
Hagel certainly played at a franchise level last season, but his meteoric rise makes him tough to place. His high-end teammates and lack of pedigree are also a factor.
As good as he was last season, there’s something that just doesn’t quite feel right labeling Hagel a franchise player. We need to see him do it again.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
T.B
LW
27
Over the last two seasons, Harley has shown he’s already a special player. Special enough that we were tempted to anoint him franchise-worthy. A majority of our panel said “not yet.”
“(He’s) right in that Jake Sanderson wheelhouse of guys who could completely blow by some of the other people ahead of him,” one executive said. “But you almost want to see it first. You don’t need to be first on all of these guys.”
Fair point, but boy is Harley close. His ability to drive offense is already elite. and he arguably took over as Dallas’ lead offensive defenseman last year when Heiskanen went down to injury. From that point on, Harley had 27 points in 30 games.
“Harley is amazing. What a hockey player,” one coach said. “Some of that is clearly skating, but it’s also reading what’s going on and his involvement in all three zones.”
If there’s a knock on Harley it’s that he doesn’t carry a lot of the defensive load. Heiskanen makes life easier for him and it showed in his absence, when Harley’s on-ice numbers dipped. Taking on a bigger role, or taking another step offensively, is how Harley can earn Tier 2 status. Just not yet.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
DAL
D
24
Hedman is coming off a bounce-back season at 34, finishing ninth among defensemen in average Game Score and eighth in Offensive Rating, with defensive impacts that held up well enough.
His age and the context in which he put up those numbers, though, have our panel questioning whether he’ll be a true top-10 defenseman moving forward.
One GM initially moved him back up to Tier 2 and then thought twice, saying he’s “probably on the wrong side (of the aging curve).” A former player pointed at Tampa Bay’s reacquisition of Ryan McDonagh as a sign that they needed to “take the pressure off” Hedman and compared him to Roman Josi, another aging former Norris Trophy winner.
“They’re still considered No. 1s,” the player said, “but they’re falling off the list.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
T.B
D
34
There is a lot to like about Jarvis: the playing style, the vibes and the all-around game.
“Hagel and Jarvis, they’re little a–holes who play the game the way it should be played,” one executive said.
All of that inspired us to put him in Tier 3 last year until the insider panel brought us back to reality, which landed him in 4B. This year, there wasn’t any doubt he has done enough to jump to all-star.
Jarvis matched last year’s career-high 67 points in eight games fewer and he upped his offensive contributions under the hood. His disruptor game complements the Hurricanes’ forecheck, but he also added more of a rush-based element this season. That growth is impressive, considering the matchup minutes he was tasked with in the regular season and playoffs.
His play in those minutes is why he’s here. His scoring doesn’t stack up to other 3A wingers, but his defense is stellar. Jarvis’ plus-4 Defensive Rating trails only Reinhart and Barkov among forwards. This is a player with Selke Trophy potential.
While one analyst thought that could be enough to be in line with Nylander in 2C, another cautioned toward 3B.
“A player I love, but is Jarvis gonna score enough to be in that grouping at 3A?” the analyst asked.
For now, he slots in between in 3A.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
CAR
RW
23
Josi, coming off a concussion and postural tachycardia syndrome (POTS) diagnosis, will be ready for training camp and “is progressing exceptionally well,” Predators general manager Barry Trotz said in June.
That’s outstanding news for an outstanding player. Now the question becomes how well he will bounce back. Last season was a mess in Nashville, and his individual numbers took a bit of a hit, too (1.72 all-situations points per 60, his worst since 2018-19).
There are also obvious concerns about his health, his age (35) and some perceived decline even before he left Nashville’s lineup, but the consensus is that he remains a true No. 1 defenseman until he shows otherwise.
“He checks more boxes at a higher level than the other guys in (Tier 3A),” a former player said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
NSH
D
35
Since he peaked at 2A two years ago, Robertson’s value has trickled downward.
Take last season. His production was slow until December, when he missed the cut for Team USA. After that, he rebounded with 65 points in 56 games and strong five-on-five play. An injury slowed him in the spring and likely suppressed his playoff production, which has never been a real strength.
All of that ultimately led to a demotion from the franchise tier.
“To me, he’s not at that level. It’s the skating, it’s the defending in the playoffs when it matters,” one executive said.
Another docked him for failing to meet expectations.
“He’s a player I expected to be 2A that played like a 3A last year,” an analyst said. “I thought of him as a franchise player, but he plays like a good all-star, no more, no less.”
The consensus? It’s a big year for the winger, whose contract is up next summer.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
DAL
LW
26
One of our goals at the start of these conversations was to figure out which Senator came closest to franchise status. At the time, we were focused on Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle.
That was a mistake. After consulting with the panel, Sanderson took a big jump and got glowing reviews.
“I think he’s smarter than some people thought he was going to be, from a ‘playing without the puck’ standpoint,” one coach said. “I think he knows how to use his traits and get the most out of them.”
At various points, our sources said Sanderson was better than Zach Werenski (from an analyst), Charlie McAvoy (from former player) and Evan Bouchard (from an executive). One scout said he belonged in Tier 2A as a high-end franchise player.
That’s a bit steep at this juncture, but it seems clear Sanderson has the skill, skating, two-way game and special-teams capabilities you see from year-in, year-out Norris Candidates. His puck-retrieval work is already tippy-top elite.
“I think there are about 10 No. 1s in the league,” a former player said. “He’s on the cusp of becoming one because he can kill penalties now, he can defend — all of that stuff he’s growing into.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
OTT
D
23
In some respects, this is an aspirational ranking for Stützle. For two years running, he hasn’t quite shown the level of production befitting his talent or a player in Tier 3A.
There remains a consensus belief, though, that Stützle — still just 23 — will again find the well-rounded offensive game that made him a 90-point player in 2022-23. That’s why he moved up Tier 3 despite another season under point-per-game production.
“Stützle could get 110 points and I wouldn’t be shocked,” one coach said.
If that happens, the Sens will have their true franchise forward. If it doesn’t — or if Stützle slides further into a pass-first, points-only role — their road to contender status will get rockier.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
OTT
C
23
After an 89-point season in which he helped drag Montreal to the playoffs, Suzuki’s impact has become undeniable. He’s a no-doubt 1C, one who sits just outside the league’s top 10. Whether he’s a franchise player, though, is open for discussion.
“It would be a projection to put him there, for sure,” one analyst said. “He’s just very close to that cusp for me.”
There’s a lot that Suzuki does right, and his impact is felt all over the ice. He carries the puck in all three zones, makes plays and handles tough minutes on a team without much defensive help. “You just win with those guys because they do all the little things so well and they don’t make mistakes,” one scout said.
The only issue here is that the franchise-level bar is very high. It’s one that takes a longer track record and stronger two-way numbers. Suzuki’s are solid, but they’re not on the level of Sebastian Aho or Nico Hischier.
“I think he’s really good. I think he’s really smart,” one coach said. “I don’t think he’s elite.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
MTL
C
26
Between his elite playmaking and all-around game, Thomas is one of the Blues’ engines. Despite missing a dozen games, he put up 81 points — 40 of which were earned during the team’s 26-game post-4 Nations playoff push.
That’s worthy of a boost from last year’s 3B placement. But how high?
“I like him, but is he a franchise player? He’s an all-star, but ‘franchise’ is a big word,” one coach questioned.
Another executive also had pause over a franchise grouping.
“I just don’t think he’s enough of a threat to score goals,” the executive echoed. “I like him. I just don’t think he’s that.”
For now, he leads the all-star tier, but one coach sees the franchise potential.
“He rubs some people the wrong way,” the coach explained. “It could be that he hasn’t always been engaged defensively. I think there’s some people who get stuck with the first year or two that they watch someone play … He’s a legit No. 1 center now.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
STL
C
26
Tkachuk is a problem for his opponents. He’s also a problem for these rankings.
Matthew’s younger brother checks plenty of boxes, as an executive said — he’s a captain and a rare physical force, and his overall production is fine on its own. For now, though, he hasn’t produced at the level of a franchise player.
Last season, for example, he averaged 1.46 points per 60 at five-on-five. That tied him for 226th in the league among players with at least 500 minutes. Nobody would argue that class of winger — Marcus Foligno, Tanner Pearson and the like — onto the list.
Now, does the rest of Tkachuk’s game put him squarely in the Tier 3 discussion? Absolutely. To argue otherwise would be ignorant. But until he consistently produces a bit more, he’s stuck.
“I feel like his personality and the weird obsession with (the Tkachucks after the 4 Nations Face-Off) gets in people’s heads,” one coach said. “More traditional hockey people love him because he’s so abrasive. But he just doesn’t have enough offensively to go any higher.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
OTT
LW
25
Bratt will never be the No. 1 in New Jersey. That’s Hughes’ job, with Hischier just behind him. Still, every team needs a high-end winger to elevate its group, and year after year, that’s been Bratt.
“It’s hard to separate Bratt from Jack Hughes, but by our stuff, he always rates out as one of the best wingers in the league,” an executive said.
Despite some ups and downs in New Jersey, Bratt has become a consistent threat for the Devils over the years, especially with his puck-moving play.
“His skating ability is obviously insanely good, but you combine that with his offensive ability and being pretty good defensively,” one analyst said. “I think he’s been underrated for a long time.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
N.J
LW
27
Welcome to Player Tiers, Celebrini.
It’s easy to get lost in the hype of a No. 1 draft pick who emerges as a difference maker in Year 1. But this is likely the first of many seasons on this list.
His rookie year impact was bigger than just the 25 goals and 63 points he put up in 70 games. Under the hood, there were signs of a budding superstar. Celebrini’s tracking data helped quantify just how much he influenced play in all three zones — from his puck retrievals and exits, to his rush-based attack, dangerous playmaking and shot-making ability.
“Celebrini’s a guy that’s like, ‘I want to be (The Guy). I’m willing to compete in everything I do,’” a coach said.
That makes him a perfect franchise cornerstone to build around in San Jose.
“This kid is incredibly good,” an executive added. “He’s just going to be an absolute stud. He will perennially be in Tier 1, possibly as soon as next year.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
S.J
C
19
Connor shoots the puck as well as anyone. That’s nothing new, and he again put his talent to use in 2024-25, scoring more than 40 goals for the second time in four seasons.
“I didn’t like him at 4 Nations, but in the NHL, he’s unbelievable,” one coach said. “Who’s better at scoring goals than that guy?”
Connor also took a step as a playmaker, setting up more shots for his linemates and totaling a career-high 56 assists. Mark Scheifele’s bounce-back and Gabe Vilardi’s finishing ability helped, but Connor deserves his flowers.
His two-way play, long an issue, also seems to be on the upswing. Winnipeg’s expected goal percentage with him on the ice (52.7) was its best since 2017-18 and in line with the rest of the Jets.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
WPG
LW
28
From waiver claim to playoff force, Forsling has become an engine for the Panthers’ back end over the last few years.
But where does that rank league-wide?
“The year he had two years ago, he was probably one of the best defensemen in the league,” one analyst explained. “He’s been really good, but if you take just the rest of his body of work, I don’t know if he’s been like a top-10 defenseman in the league.”
And would he be a top-10 defenseman outside of the Panthers?
“I’m not a believer in the skill set,” another analyst noted. “I think there’s a systems fit that boosts him.”
That’s what puts him below the Morrisseys and Slavins of the world, but that doesn’t take away from his importance in Florida.
“He’s an incredible defender. Really mobile,” a former player said. “His edge work defending is all-world. He’s a good puck mover.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
FLA
D
29
Last year, Keller held his spot in Tier 3C despite a dip in production. The thought was an improved situation in Utah and his own amped-up playmaking ability would move him in the right direction.
He overdelivered, putting together the first 90-point season of his career and continuing to cement his status as an elite offensive winger. His work gaining the zone and creating chances is high-end by any measure, and Utah’s defensive results with him on the ice have improved for three consecutive seasons. It would’ve been unfair not to reward him, and a repeat would push him even higher.
“He’s got to be on the (U.S.) Olympic team,” one coach said. “I think he’s a better player than (Jake Guentzel) at this point overall.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
UTA
LW
27
Larkin, at least in the eyes of our panel, has found his level. Depending on who you ask, he’s either a middle-of-the-pack first-line center or an elite 2C, but nobody had an issue with his placement in Tier 3B.
His performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off earned him praise, as did a big season from linemate Lucas Raymond. That helped raise Larkin from Tier 3C after two years in neutral. We also felt it appropriate to leave Tier 3C center-free, reflecting a drop-off after players such as Larkin — a decision one exec called “bang on.”
Detroit’s playoff drought with Larkin as their top forward prevents him from rising further. He could counter-balance that with more production, but he has one season in his last six with more than 70 points. Still, there’s a sense that miscast or not, he’d be a winning player in the right environment, and we wanted his placement to reflect that.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
DET
C
29
A couple of years ago, McAvoy was in the top five with Makar and Fox. Since then, the separation has only grown.
“I like McAvoy under the hood still. Boston was just all over the place last year,” one analyst said. “He’s certainly not lower than this.”
Between the Bruins’ downturn and his injuries, his placement was going to fall this year — but the slide stopped at 3B, thanks to a lot of insider support.
“If I’m picking between (McAvoy, Moritz Seider, and Jake Sanderson) for next year, I’d probably take McAvoy third of those three,” the executive said.
But even behind Seider and Sanderson, that executive still thinks McAvoy is a top-15 defenseman, and perhaps top-10.
Where the opinion started to split on how much McAvoy’s offense matters — some feel he needs that to round out his game, others feel his defense and competitiveness are enough to outweigh it.
“He f—in’ cares, man. He wants to win and he wants to make a difference,” one scout said. “It can be hard to find those guys.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
BOS
D
27
In the summer of 2023, Pettersson was squarely in the middle of Tier 2, where he looked like an offensively brilliant franchise center with the potential for more.
Now, after two seasons of dysfunction, decreased production and what a scout called “really lethargic” play, it’s impossible to place him any higher than the middle of the No. 1 center pack.
“He’s much better than (Tier 3B),” one analyst said. “Has he performed at a level that enables you to put him higher on this list? That’s a hard no as well.”
One executive believes Pettersson is both ready to “bounce back and prove everybody wrong” and based solely on his performance last season would be in Tier 4. In 2024-25, he put up the worst points per 60 of his career (2.26), watched his shot and chance contributions crater and scored goals at five-on-five at a rate equal to players such as Steven Lorentz and Joe Veleno.
“It feels like if the wind blows the wrong way, he doesn’t even want to try,” a coach said. “There’s got to be more there … He’s been that guy before. I know it’s not that simple. I just don’t trust him, I guess. His best stuff is sick.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
VAN
C
26
It’s not enough to simply play tough minutes. There has to be some level of success within the context to warrant the responsibility. Last season, Seider proved he could not only handle the job but thrive. It’s exactly what we wanted to see.
Despite the tough usage, Seider won his minutes with strong defensive aptitude. Per 60, the Red Wings allowed 0.21 fewer expected goals and 0.42 goals with Seider on the ice. Those are elite marks given the context, pushing his Defensive Rating toward the league’s best — in line with Slavin and Heiskanen. Under the hood, Seider took some real steps in his ability to retrieve pucks and defend his blue line, both hallmarks of high-end franchise defensemen.
“He’s going to be an interesting block on a playoff-type team,” one analyst said.
Seider is becoming a do-it-all defenseman, and part of what makes him special is that he also has a mean streak that’s absent in a lot of the defensemen above him. Another season like his last can propel him into Tier 2.
“Where do you find another player like him?” one executive said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
DET
D
24
After his save percentage fell below 0.910 for the second straight year, the big goalie question of this year’s project was where Sorokin belongs.
“The volume and quality he deals with is absurd,” one former player noted.
The context of his surroundings is key — he finished in the top 10 in goals saved above expected last year, after all. So while he may have slipped out of the franchise tier, there was support from all angles of the insider panel for a Tier 3 placement.
“Sorokin is so dialed, technically sound, and his quality of movement, quality of positioning,” a former goalie said.
But where exactly does he fit? And how does he stack up relative to Sergei Bobrovsky and Jake Oettinger?
The consensus was above both.
“Oettinger’s best-ever season just beats out Sorokin’s third-best season,” an executive said. “This guy, he’s unbelievable.”
“With his body of work, I would still take him over Oettinger,” an analyst echoed. “A top four of Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Vasilevsky, Sorokin in some order.”
“I think that in any one season that he can be the best goalie in the league,” another analyst noted.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
NYI
G
30
“I like Tage,” one scout said.
We could probably stop there — who doesn’t?
“Where do you find a 6-6 guy who can shoot, skate, play center, play wing? On a really good team, Tage Thompson would be a hell of a player.”
After a down year spurred by injury, Thompson bounced back, scoring 44 goals in 76 games. More impressive is that 33 of those tallies were at five-on-five, seven more than the next best player and tied for the eighth highest since 2007. He was a goal-scoring machine. With a competent power play, Thompson would be a 50-goal scorer.
The big question with Thompson always surrounds his defense, and it’s likely the reason he’s shifting to the wing. To his credit, he’s been much improved the last two seasons, but there’s still work to be done.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
BUF
C
RW
27
There was a lot of feedback on Bobrovsky, in both directions.
Some felt his two Vezinas and two Stanley Cup championships put him right behind the top three.
“I get it, he’s not Hellebuyck, Shesterkin or (Vasilevskiy), but he’s had such success that I had to put him as a 3A,” a former goalie said.
“Ask yourself, if you’re starting a playoff run today, which goalie you’re choosing,” a former player added.
But others aren’t believers in Bobrovsky. His regular seasons haven’t been as sparkling lately, he benefits from Florida’s structure and there’s the age factor (he turns 37 this month).
Since these Tiers factor in a player’s total body of work — playoffs and regular season — he lands somewhere in the middle, in 3C as a top-six goalie in the league.
“If the playoffs are weighted heavily, he should absolutely be a 3C,” an analyst said. “If this is more of a regular season, is he better than a Sorokin? I don’t think so.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
FLA
G
36
Over the last four years Forsberg has two modes. He’s either one of the best wingers in the world, scoring at a near 50-goal pace while winning tough minutes. Or he’s an ordinary 30-goal, top-line winger who doesn’t move the needle in a significant way.
Forsberg’s inconsistency makes him difficult to place. He’s shown Tier 2 upside… and Tier 5 downside. We’ve settled for “somewhere in Tier 3,” higher after a good year, lower after an average year. His age, though, does make Forsberg’s most recent output a little more concerning.
“I don’t know what to think of Filip Forsberg right now, if he’s just like falling off in general or if it’s just Nashville had a weird season,” one executive said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
NSH
LW
31
The only thing most would agree on when it came to Hutson? Wait and see.
“We still don’t really know what he is yet,” one analyst said. “He’s got a very specialized skill set.”
In a league in which every team is trying to get bigger on the back end, Hutson’s 5-foot-9, 162-pound frame stands out. In order to succeed at his position at that size, Hutson had to be special. A rookie season with 65 points and pushing play in the right direction certainly qualifies. One analyst called Hutson a “unique animal.”
“Hutson is tough because I definitely saw it this year. I was blown away when I watched him live,” another analyst said. “This guy could end up in Tier 1 — it’s there.”
Makar and Hughes are Hutson’s top comps, and Hutson’s projected Net Rating for next season lands in the top 10 among defenseman for good reason. The potential for him to be franchise-caliber or better is real. But there’s a lot of uncertainty after one season. Hutson’s size also means there are real questions regarding his ability to defend, which does pose some potential downside. “I do think the defensive issues are a real concern,” one executive said.
We’ll see what happens in Year 2, but what we saw in Year 1 was enough to debut in Tier 3.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
MTL
D
21
One of the questions we asked ourselves when it came to goalies was whether Oettinger belonged in the top five.
The regular-season consistency with a high workload is there. The playoff aptitude and big-game ability is there. But it does feel like the flat-out dominance seen from the goalies above him has been missing. Since Oettinger made a name for himself during the 2022 playoffs, he hasn’t quite been able to match that wow factor.
Oettinger sits on the cusp of the top five for now. In the conversation, but not firmly in it.
“He’s a freak of an athlete. He’s got size. He has been fantastic in the playoffs,” one former goalie said. “But there’s part of his game that when it’s not on, it’s very obvious.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
DAL
G
26
If there was any doubt Raymond was a star-caliber winger, he took care of it with an 80-point season as a 22-year-old. He faded a bit, scoring just five goals after Feb. 22, but stretches like that happen — and he’d already spent the majority of two years proving he’s a legit first-liner with the potential to be even more.
“I don’t think we’ve seen the best Lucas Raymond yet,” one executive said, “and he’s already an 80-point guy.”
If he follows that up in 2025-26, he’ll be (at least) in the Tier 3A discussion. Maybe another 80 points gets him there, in the style of Clayton Keller and Kyle Connor. Maybe he continues to improve as a play-driver, both in transition and the offensive zone, like Jesper Bratt. Maybe it’s as simple as the Red Wings making the playoffs. There are options for Raymond, and there’s optimism, too.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
DET
LW
23
Toews is a defenseman who can do it all. He can create offense, join the rush, break the puck out and defend well. Sure, it’s easier to do all of those things when a defenseman isn’t the focal point of his pair, but Toews is still a rare breed as a player with very few weaknesses in all three zones.
His strengths with the puck, though, aren’t quite as eye-popping as they once were, and his relative impacts have dropped in three straight seasons as a result. Toews is still a very good defenseman, worthy of Tier 3 status for the fifth straight year, but at 31, the tide could shift on him soon.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
COL
D
31
The story is similar to last year: a midseason injury suppressed Theodore’s scoring. But when accounting for minutes played, his 2.32 points per 60 ranked third among defenders, behind only Makar and Hughes. His impact is greater than just offensive contributions. At five-on-five, Theodore upped his defensive touches, with more puck retrievals and possession exits to shift Vegas from defense to offense.
“He’s really f—in’ good at some things, but not elite at any one thing,” a former player said. “Good skater, decent defender, not great, really good puck-mover, good first pass, elusive, gets pucks through, does all the little things well.”
Now, Theodore has to keep up that level without having Pietrangelo to share the burden of tough minutes in the top four.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 3 — All-Star
VGK
D
30
Tier 4 — Star
A top 100 player. Someone who would be a strong piece within a contending or championship core, but not a go-to option. An average top line forward, below average number one defenseman, or top 10 goalie.
At the start, Barzal was the lone center in 3C, a spot he’s called home since 2022. While one exec was high on Barzal, believing he’s a point-per-game player, several others voted to drop him down after last year’s disappointing scoring totals.
“I don’t think he belongs (in Tier 3) anymore, to be honest with you,” one coach said. “He doesn’t take over games and he’s not good defensively.”
Can Barzal shed that reputation? Last season, he quietly put up the strongest underlying numbers of his career with a 61 percent xG and some of the best relative numbers in the league. Good health and better fortune could push Barzal right back to 3C next season — maybe even higher. For now, he has to earn it.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
One coach laid it plain: “Bedard might have the most pressure on him of anybody in the league. I think he’s right where he should be. But why (shouldn’t he be) higher? What are we waiting for?”
“I have no interest in watching that team, and he’s on it. And that’s not good.”
In some regards, that’s criticism of Chicago’s front office. It’s fair, though, to pin some of it on Bedard, too. His skill from the blue line in remains undeniable — one exec called his shot “absolutely insane” — but high-end, elite forwards create offense themselves. It’s a prerequisite, and Bedard has not yet met it.
The fundamental issue, a different coach said, is that Bedard needs to either improve as a puck transporter or Chicago needs to add one to his line. How that is (or is not) resolved will dictate quite a bit, including Bedard’s placement on lists like this.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Going from 70 points to 39 is a tough drop, and one that soured a lot of Islanders fans on Dobson over the last year.
Interestingly, what’s much less talked about is the massive improvement in Dobson’s underlying numbers. By relative xG, he ranked top 10 in the league, on par with Werenski. That impact was felt at both ends of the ice — Dobson looks like a legit five-on-five driver, which bodes well for his new team.
Still, it’s hard to argue against his low “give-a-crap meter,” which can be off-putting while watching him.
“You want a little more all-around engagement, which is not dissimilar from Sergachev,” one analyst said. “But he scares you when he’s on the offensive line and on the power play.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
“I can never get a read on Winnipeg guys,” one coach said. That’s a good starting point for Ehlers.
Over the last three years, Ehlers has averaged less than 16 minutes each season, but on a per-60 basis has outscored his more famous former teammate in 3B during that time. Despite worse linemates, the Jets also won their minutes more decisively with Ehlers compared to the other guy. For the statistically-inclined, the gap between Ehlers and Kyle Connor probably doesn’t sit right.
There’s a difference between doing things per minute and actually doing it in a top-of-the-lineup role. In Carolina, Ehlers finally has a chance to actually show it. We’ll see if he makes good on his promise and proves his worth. Tier 3 awaits if he can.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
After the 2023-24 season, Johnston looked like he was on the precipice of greatness — the next big thing. He landed in 4A at the cusp of Tier 3 with an expectation that he could take the next step, but he arguably took a step back. Johnston may have scored more points, but that had more to do with a larger opportunity that he didn’t exactly seize. His ability to drive play suffered and he looked especially weak in the playoffs.
Consider this take two on our bet that Johnston will become a true difference-maker. Tier 3 awaits and it’s time for him to prove he belongs.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
In the three seasons since Kempe’s Tiers debut, only 18 regular NHL players have scored more all-situations goals per 60. There, he’s tied with Auston Matthews and a tick ahead of Nathan MacKinnon. Bet you wouldn’t have guessed that.
Kempe has also made strides as a two-way player; Los Angeles scored more than 65 percent of the goals when he was on the ice at five-on-five, and he’s projected to have a positive Defensive Rating.
“He’s an elite player, production-wise, and how he’s elevated his game in big moments makes him special,” one scout said “His game’s evolved, big time.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Nearly 900 games into his career, Scheifele remains a challenge to pin down for exercises such as this. Initially, despite coming off his best season since 2018-19, we erred on the side of caution — and the panel voted to bump him up.
One coach said Scheifele might’ve been one of the 12 best Canadian forwards in the league and a “no-brainer” choice over Mathew Barzal among offensively-focused 4A centers. A scout called him the engine for linemates Kyle Connor and Gabe Vilardi. Nobody called him overrated.
“I don’t think he gets enough attention, to tell you the truth,” one GM said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Last season, Sergachev’s first away from the Lightning’s Victor Hedman-sized security blanket, people around the league were wondering if he could show that he was a No. 1 defenseman. Question answered.
Now it’s time to see if he can become a high-end No. 1 defenseman. As always, he has textbook physical traits to fill the role. Several panelists believe he’s already the best of the 4A defenseman and that with time, he’ll move up the list — but that’s not quite a unanimous sentiment. “I like him,” one former player said. “I don’t think he’s in this conversation (with Hedman and Roman Josi).”
Still, last season suggests there aren’t many warts left on his game. If that’s a precursor, look out.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
One executive summed things up with a rhetorical question: “How much more can Mark Stone do the thing?”
Last season? Quite well, as he put up 67 points in 66 games with typically strong two-way play. The issue, though, is an injury history that borders on legendary.
“That doesn’t mean he doesn’t deserve to be there for how good he is right now,” that same exec said, noting that playing with Mitch Marner figures to help.
Another exec was even more succinct: “If I had to win a Stanley Cup next year, I want Mark Stone. If Stone’s healthy, he’s such a difference-maker.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Injuries have really hurt Svechnikov’s ascent over the last two seasons, but if his playoffs are any indication, he looks ready to get back on track.
“Svechnikov I would move out of the 4s, all the way into the 3s,” one analyst said. “He’s a strong All-Star caliber (player). It’s just a matter of playing a full season and having the right bounces.”
Better bounces would help — Svechnikov only shot four percent at five-on-five — but we’d also like to see a return to the play-driver he was in 2022-23. His work since, especially defensively, has been spotty.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
On the surface, Weegar looks like one of the league’s most impactful defensemen deserving of higher placement. He produces, he plays all situations and he tilts the ice heavily. But there were some red flags in his game last season that nudged him to Tier 4.
“I think his pace is falling off a little bit,” one scout said.
Weegar has long been excellent at moving the puck in all three zones, but lost a step last year. He didn’t create as many chances, he didn’t join the rush as much, and more damning is that he was a mistake machine when retrieving pucks and exiting the zone.
Weegar has a strong track record and his other numbers are solid, but at 31, there are some signs of decline.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Rejoice, Wilson fanatics. Your guy has made his Tiers debut, and he’s done it with authority. A full season removed from tearing his ACL, Wilson was at his best, blending strong play-driving and a solid offensive toolkit with the physicality that made him famous.
“I think (Tier 4A is) right,” one data analyst said. “He was a high-impact player last year. I always think of him as being overrated because of physical presence, but the reality is, the player’s performed.”
One scout credited Wilson, in part, for helping Pierre-Luc Dubois pop in his first season with the Caps. His off-ice work came up plenty, too.
“He’s the guy that holds it together for them,” a coach said. “He does it every day, and I’m not talking about fighting.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Byfield’s finishing kick last season — he was fourth in the league in goals from March 3 onward, following an unlucky start — resonated with us enough to initially place him in Tier 4A.
There were panelists who backed us up. “He drives every line he’s on,” a scout said. “His work ethic is at the highest level. His size and his strength and his length. If you watch him, he’ll out-work everybody.” One coach floated the idea that Byfield is more ready to level up than Connor Bedard.
Ultimately, enough other panelists convinced us to tap the brakes. That’s not any real knock on him; it’s meant more as a reminder that climbing to the All-Star tier takes a certain level of production, and he hasn’t quite managed it yet. Our belief (and the belief of the panel) is that he’ll get there, probably soon.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
If we limited our assessment period to the regular season, Carlson probably would’ve landed higher on the list. He had a bit of a renaissance at age 35, posting the best play-driving numbers of his career, finishing 12th among defensemen in Net Rating and pushing his way back into Tier 4.
The playoffs weren’t particularly kind to him, though. An injury to Martin Fehervary left Carlson paired with Jakob Chychrun, and the results weren’t great. It served as a reminder that both are limited — in Carlson’s case, due to his age — and stopped our panelists from arguing him further up the list.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
By xG, not a single player tilted the ice for his team more heavily than Cirelli last season. He was a shutdown savant, parlaying that excellence into a spot on Team Canada and his first season as a Selke Trophy finalist.
Cirelli makes life easier for Tampa Bay’s stars, eating tough minutes so Kucherov and Point don’t have to. Last season, he took that to a new level, adding some offense for good measure with a career-high 59 points.
He’s always been good, but last year Cirelli became great. With his style of play and defensive dominance, Cirelli is a coach’s dream at 2C.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Fourteen goals and 28 points aren’t exactly first-line production. Even when accounting for time missed, Eriksson Ek’s scoring rate still falls short of the bar he has set for himself over the last few seasons.
That knocked him down a sub-tier. But his all-around game is the safety net that keeps him in star territory. Whether he’s asked to chip in clutch scoring with the Wild’s top offensive threats or tasked with matchup minutes against the league’s best forwards, he’s a versatile center who can shoulder a heavy workload in any situation for Minnesota.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
For the second straight year, Faber had an incredible first half, only to struggle in the second. For anyone who doubts the difficulty of eating minutes, Faber is a good case study. Not every guy can do it, and it’s not easy to translate 16-minute sheltered efficiency into a 25-minute, all-situations, tough-minute workload. One executive said Faber looked “spent” by the end of the year.
“They’re playing him 25 minutes a game and that’s not what he is,” one analyst said. “He’s probably more of a Forsling type at the end of the day.”
Defending is hard work, and while Faber’s on-ice numbers don’t sparkle as brightly as his reputation, the eye test dazzles. Faber has all the tools to be an elite defensive guy, with positioning, retrievals and exits being particular strong points. “He’s good at some of the most important things,” one analyst said.
The results will come. For now, it’s difficult to have him in Tier 3 with other bona fide No. 1’s, but the glowing comparisons are too hard to ignore.
“He probably won’t have the offense, but I don’t think it’s crazy to say that he could be a Slavin,” one executive said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Nobody seems able to talk about Guenther without mentioning his shot early and often, and our panelists were no different. More than once it came as a bit of a backhanded compliment.
“I like him, and then there are other times where he’ll go 10 games (without doing much),” one coach said. “His shooting is special.”
The next step for Guenther is becoming a more productive five-on-five player. 1.72 points per 60 put him in a group with Owen Tippett and Jake Neighbours — solid wingers, but not in the top 150 discussion. His chance contribution numbers and zone-entry work suggest he can do it.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Are we being unfair to Hintz? Maybe. One analyst took real issue with his placement.
“I’m a big Hintz fan. I think he’s a legit No. 1 center and I don’t think he gets the credit that he deserves. In terms of their forward core, he’s really an engine for them.”
Last season felt like a real step back, though. His xG dropped from 60 percent to 51 percent, his relative numbers were negative for the first time in his career and his transition stats continued to move in the wrong direction — especially when it came to exiting his own zone.
Two years ago, Hintz was an ace in every zone. A return to that level could mean a return to Tier 3.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
There might be some sticker shock for Knies’ debut on this list in 4B against more accomplished producers and play-drivers. But for many in the game, the combination of speed, size and skill is simply too tantalizing. A 22-year-old power forward putting up a near 30-30 stat line is a rare breed.
There’s precedent for Knies’ placement, given the affinity for power forwards within front offices. In the first edition of this exercise, Brady Tkachuk debuted in 4B after scoring just 44 points in 71 games. Tkachuk showed signs of being a driver and obviously had a lot less help at the time than Knies, but the point still stands: it’s an archetype that’s heavily revered within hockey circles.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
How much of Konecny’s continued standing in 4B is on him and how much stems from the lousy offensive environment he’s in?
That’s been the question over the past few years, and while no one said much about him (good or bad), a quick glance at his tracking data could hint that he’s underrated. Konecny is Philadelphia’s engine, touching every part of the game in all three zones at a similarly strong rate to other wingers in Tier 3.
With more help, maybe more people will start talking about Konecny, and the rise of Michkov could be the catalyst for that. Then again, there’s a big difference between the engine of a Ferrari and a Honda Civic. Maybe Konecny’s spot here is correct and maybe having a 4B engine is part of Philadelphia’s problem.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
The Blue Jackets’ scoring fueled their surprising playoff push, and Marchenko was a pivotal part of that. He showed glimpses of that offensive ability in 2023-24, but last year his 31-goal, 74-point outburst put him on the map.
While he wasn’t much of a puck-mover last season, his defensive puck touches were a low-key standout among forwards. But the real highlight of his game is his goal-scoring ability.
“On a really good team with two good linemates, this guy can get you 40 or 50,” one scout said.
While some questioned whether he has enough dimension, others see a budding star.
“If you watch him play, he’s got the size, he’s got his speed, he’s got the physicality, he’s got the creativity,” an analyst said. “He’s got the trajectory to be an All-Star.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Swayman is a perfect example of why goalies are so damn hard to pin down: the year-to-year inconsistency.
Even the best of the best, the ones on the cusp of franchise status, can let you down. After saving 20-plus goals above expected in back-to-back years, Swayman allowed 6.4 more than expected in 2024-25, his first year as Boston’s starter. From top-five over two seasons to bottom-20 the next — it’s a level of volatility that isn’t present at any other position.
That can lead to some hot takes, and while a drop in standing here is necessary, the best course of action is to trust the body of work.
“I think he should be considered at least a top-10 goalie … but last year was tough,” one former goalie said. “I still have belief.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Originally, Ullmark and Montembeault were next to each other in 4B. But something about that combination didn’t feel right.
“Linus is in the right spot because he won’t play enough games to contend with better goalies. But Montembeault vs Ullmark, there’s a distinction to draw there,” one analyst said.
Ullmark may not be a workhorse starter, but his numbers are sparkling. That’s why Ottawa was willing to bet on him as their new No. 1. While he missed time with injury, condensing his season to 44 games, he excelled outside of the Bruins’ dream tandem and helped take an up-and-coming Senators team to the playoffs.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Bennett’s a polarizing player. He doesn’t just play with an edge; he pushes the boundaries physically. He benefits from his surroundings, but that’s a two-way street in Florida.
“He’s a great example of a specific player type and everything coming together perfectly,” one analyst explained. “His particular skill set, his particular character compete, his physicality fit hand-in-glove for him in Florida in a way where the team benefited to an extreme extent.”
Maybe that wouldn’t translate as well outside of the Panthers, but it’s undeniable that he helps take Florida to the next level.
“He fits right where he should fit,” one coach said.
And as one executive put it, he’s the “Gustav Forsling of centers, where the playoff numbers are just way better than the regular-season numbers.”
The playoff pedigree, including his recent Conn Smythe win, can get overblown, but it counts for something. It’s not why he’s in the top 150, but it’s why he’s as high as Tier 4.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Outside of Celebrini, Cooley was the young gun forward with the most support from the insider panel.
Almost every element of his game improved between Years 1 and 2 — his scoring increased by 21 points, his transitional play developed and he emerged as a dangerous passer.
“That’s a guy who’s going to keep improving,” one coach said. “Strong finish is a tough dynamic to measure because (Utah was) out.”
That finish came after six scoreless games to open March, and he netted eight goals and 18 points over his next 16 tilts.
“His skating is so dynamic that if he took off like Jack Hughes, that wouldn’t shock me,” an executive added.
How soon could he take off? Another executive thinks he could rocket up to Tier 2 as soon as next season.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
To say people are worried about Ekholm would be an understatement. Age is catching up to him, and the word “mileage” came up a lot in discussing the 35-year-old.
While Ekholm’s surface-level numbers didn’t look bad last year, the way his season progressed brought concern. Ekholm seemed to lose a step with each passing month, and that was especially apparent during the 4 Nations Face-Off. In the games he played after, his ability to drive play dropped and he got crushed on the scoresheet.
Maybe it’s bad luck. Maybe it’s the injury he was dealing with at the time. Either way, Ekholm enters the 2025-26 season with something to prove. In a contract year, he has to show he’s still got it.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
We’ve stayed pretty consistent with Jones over the last four years. He’s an elite No. 2, but if he’s a team’s top dog, that team probably is in trouble. We saw exactly how that second scenario played out in Chicago. Now it’s time to see how Jones looks when he’s properly cast.
Initially, Jones had a rocky start in Florida. But he looked like a star in the playoffs with some excellent defensive impacts, and he finally put all the tools together. Jones does a lot well with the puck and now he’s finally in a lineup spot where he can show that off.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Horvat’s scoring dropped last year, but that doesn’t fall solely on his shoulders. The team underachieved and he didn’t have a true top-liner to play with while Mathew Barzal was sidelined.
With Barzal and Horvat deployed, the Islanders controlled their minutes and outscored opponents 10-3. Without him, Horvat was left with wingers such as Anders Lee, Kyle Palmieri, Simon Holmstrom and Anthony Duclair.
“He’s even better than people know,” one scout said.
He’s definitely better than last season showed, which is why he gets the benefit of the doubt and stays in 4C for another year.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
The difference for Hanifin now in Vegas, compared to the end of his Flames tenure, is that he isn’t expected to be a true No. 1 for the Golden Knights. That’s Shea Theodore’s role, while Hanifin slots in as a solid No. 2 to balance out the top four behind him. It’s a more fitting role for a player who doesn’t have the most eye-catching strengths to his game, but is just more of an all-around threat.
As solid as his first full year in Vegas was, the challenge now will be maintaining that level without Alex Pietrangelo’s defensive stability on his right.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
After briefly flirting with Tier 3 thanks to a 54-goal 2023-24 season (plus 16 playoff goals), Hyman is back home in 4C.
To some, that’s probably generous after his production dried up significantly last season. Hyman scored just 27 goals and 44 points in 73 games despite a prime spot next to the best player in the world. With Hyman, it’s more about the little things he does every shift — his motor, consistency and adaptability, as one former player put it.
“If Hyman isn’t scoring, he turns himself into a pure energy player until he scores again.”
He’s a guy you win with. This season, he should have the points to show for it.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Another season with more than 30 goals plus improved defensive impacts under Jim Montgomery have solidified Kyrou as a true top-liner. St. Louis outscored opponents 63-35 with him on the ice at five-on-five; two seasons ago, they were minus-16.
One coach compared Kyrou to William Nylander, the master of doing just enough defensively to avoid undermining his offensive dynamism. Kyrou has enough talent with the puck to envision that he can hit another level of productivity, too.
“If you’re gonna be the guy who cheats for offense with speed and all that, just lean in,” the coach said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Sometimes it’s easy to lose sight of where an up-and-coming player belongs with the top 150. There has to be a balance between a player’s actual value, projected growth this season and perceived ceiling.
“I think Michkov is going to be in Tier 2 eventually, but does he deserve to be where he is on this list already?” one executive asked.
It may seem early for a 4C ranking, but the skill is already translating at the NHL level. Now he just has to build on it.
“Point-getter. I don’t mind him, but he’s still got a lot to prove,” a scout said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Miller’s placement last year — behind 16 other centers despite 103 points — reflected the wait-and-see sentiments expressed by a huge chunk of our panel. If he did it again, he would’ve moved up from Tier 3C.
Instead, his shooting-percentage-fueled production dipped, the team around him cratered and amid unresolvable issues with Elias Pettersson, Miller accepted a trade to New York. There, he was back over a point per game and again played tough five-on-five minutes to an expected draw. That’s valuable, regardless of point totals. One coach thinks Miller will click under Mike Sullivan — but again, it’s time to wait and see.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
There are those that really love Necas’ dynamic ability with the puck. There are those who see more flash than substance. Finding the right place for him was a bit of a challenge.
“Necas is criminally low. I have him in Tier 3,” one analyst said. “He’s better than Jarvis.”
“I don’t think last year is really what he was. I don’t think it’s real,” one executive said. “But my issue with him is more the defense than anything else.”
Necas is an end-to-end machine who creates a lot off the rush, a perfect fit for the Avalanche. But his play does come at a cost, which leaves him in 4C. Another offensive step, in which he becomes undeniable, or stronger off-puck play could push him higher.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Over the last few years, Parayko has been one of the main battlegrounds for the eye test vs. analytics debate. He passed the eye test with flying colors, but rarely had the on-ice results to back it up — even after accounting for his difficult usage. Parayko looked miscast as a No. 1, often trying to do too much outside of his wheelhouse.
That changed last season for two key reasons. The first was a new coach, one who was able to maximize Parayko’s raw gifts. The second was a new partner who could do what Parayko couldn’t with the puck. Combine those two things and Parayko looked like his vintage self again with no further debate necessary — the eye test and his underlying numbers finally lined up.
And hey, a spot on Team Canada doesn’t hurt his stock either.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Saros’ track record as a true difference-maker in net gave him some grace in last year, despite an underwhelming 2023-24. He deserves credit for his history, but is now two years removed from playing like the Predators’ backbone.
“I’m worried this could be the slide, that the size, the team in front of him, everything may be coming to a crashing halt,” a former goalie said.
The fact that he’s on the wrong side of 30, along with his smaller stature, makes the road ahead even more challenging.
“(Smaller goalies) need to be so perfect and so fabulous athletically, even a slight downtick in athleticism might be what knocks the wheels completely off of a guy,” an executive added.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Every year, there’s a push from some to drop Tavares down and we’ve stood firm. Last season, we were rewarded with his 38 goals and 74 points in 75 games. Tavares was back, and the push was a lot quieter.
Quieter, but not completely absent.
“Tavares is too high,” one executive said. “He doesn’t impact the game like the other people on this list.”
Tough crowd, given that only seven centers have scored more goals than Tavares over the last three seasons. Tavares will slow down with age and his playoff work is spotty at best. But he’s still a high-end 2C.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Verhaeghe’s regular-season stock has dropped over the last couple of seasons. His scoring rate dipped even further to 2.20 per 60 last year, the second-lowest rate of his career. His contributions below the surface also tapered off last year, including his rush-based attack.
At this point, he’s more of a complementary player in the Panthers’ top-six in the regular season. But he always amps it up when it matters most. Verhaeghe’s clutch postseason play keeps him in star territory for another year; he scored at a point-per-game pace on his way to back-to-back championships.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Two things work against Wolf: he plays small and lacks NHL experience.
“There’s length in his game, but then he gets in the net and he plays very compact,” a former goalie said. “He plays tiny in net (and) the darker gear makes him look a little smaller, but he has all the tools.”
And those tools translated extremely well, as Wolf’s excellent play almost brought the Flames to the playoffs. His body of work leading up to the NHL adds even more oomph behind that.
“I don’t think that Calgary is very good and Wolf is fooling them,” an executive said. “I’m a simple man. I like goalies that are good at stopping the puck. He’s been good at stopping the puck since junior.”
“I would probably be tempted to put him up there in Tier 4,” another executive added. “What he’s done at lower levels, and then basically, almost single-handedly, getting that team to the playoffs this year — I think that says a lot.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
A top 150 player. Someone who would offer strong support to a contending or championship core, but who wouldn’t be an integral piece within it. A below average top-line forward, a strong No. 2 defenseman, or an above average starter.
When Buchnevich first moved to St. Louis, the Blues unlocked another element to his offensive game. But over the last couple of seasons, his production came back down to his career-average levels. His puck-moving ability and all-situation, two-way impact is still valuable — it’s a key part of the Blues’ top-six attack — but it just isn’t his peak level. That lands him back in support territory, after a couple of years in the star range.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
STL
LW
30
The hips don’t lie, folks.
There were a lot of concerns regarding Demko and his placement on this list across the league, and his hips were at the top of that list. Demko was limited to 23 games last season and looked, well, limited in those contests.
Yes, he was fantastic in 2023-24, but Demko’s 2022-23 campaign was also mired by injury troubles. Having one amazing season sandwiched by injury-riddled years is not a great recipe for confidence.
On pure talent, Demko may have a case to join the goalies in Tier 4 or higher. It’s just very difficult to be sure that’s the version the Canucks will get this season.
“Goalies and hips are real scary,” one analyst said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
The key with Dostal is balancing the future upside with the actual results.
“I love Dostal. I think he’s the next stud goalie,” one executive said.
His 2024-25 numbers are strong, with a top-10 ranking in goals saved above expected. He provided quality goaltending on a Ducks team with serious defensive growing pains, which makes him a top-15 goalie in this year’s Tiers. To level up, he has to build his track record and maintain that play across a full season.
“He had an amazing start to the season and first half of the season,” a former goalie said. “The numbers in the second half, they’re not the same. It’s a completely different story.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
It took some time for Dubois to realize his potential, but at long last it feels like he’s arrived.
“Where else are you getting a 6-3, 230-pound centerman who can play 18 to 20 minutes against their best players every single night?” one scout said.
The tools have always been there; putting it all together into a complete package hasn’t been. That changed last season with career highs in points (66), expected goals percentage (56 percent) and goals percentage (62 percent). Dubois was dominant in a matchup role.
Now he has to do it again. There’s Tier 3 upside if he can, but for a player whose career is defined by inconsistency, some extra caution is warranted.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
The ship has probably sailed on Ekblad as a true No. 1 defenseman, but he’s proven to be a vital part of the Panthers machine. He’s a big, toolsy defenseman with a mean streak and some offensive ability — a guy who fits well with the team’s deep forward group. It may not always be pretty, but it works.
“Watching him drives me crazy, but he’s a good defenseman,” one coach said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
As usual, opinions regarding Hamilton — who started off in 4B — were mixed.
“He’s better than Carlson at this stage in his career. He’s better than Weegar,” one analyst said.
“I would take probably almost everybody in Tier 5 over Dougie Hamilton,” one exec said.
There was more bad than good, though, pushing Hamilton down into Tier 5. Injuries are a concern and his defensive issues are real. But the offensive upside is still there. Hamilton is a step above Rielly, Chabot and Dunn in that category — but there’s just enough missing to question whether he’s a bona fide top-30 defensemen.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
After a disappointing start to 2024-25, Fiala hit his stride in late January. From that point on, he reminded the rest of the league how dynamic he can be.
“Fiala is just unbelievable. He can change a game in one shift,” one executive said.
But there are limits to his game, which is the difference between support and star.
“He just can’t play on a top line, right?” an analyst added. “So he’s the guy that always produces in the two spot.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
L.A
LW
29
Over the last couple of years, Kadri recalibrated his scoring expectations. The 70-point range seemed to be the sweet spot, but the question was whether the 34-year-old could keep that up. His play in transition, shot volume and finishing ability were outright standouts as he totaled 67 points on a retooling Flames team.
“(Vince Trocheck) and Kadri, I think, would step into a situation (on a contender) where they have that ‘Sam Bennett glow up’ year,” an analyst said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
There was some trepidation over where to rank Marchand. His 2025 playoff run was undeniable — the stuff of legends. He is also far from the player he once was, and he showed some real signs of age before the playoffs.
Balancing that isn’t easy. It’s even harder when a lot of Marchand’s playoff success was a result of the situation he was put in (and an inflated shooting percentage). One executive likened it to Phil Kessel’s role during Pittsburgh’s back-to-back Cup runs, in which Marchand was similarly able to feast in a third-line role. How much credit should Marchand get for that, given his place in the lineup?
“He’s more of a 5B or 5C for me,” one analyst said. “(He’s) closer to Lehkonen and Rust probably moving forward.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
FLA
LW
37
Just two years ago, Meier leaped up to 3B on the heels of a 40-goal, 66-point season. But he hasn’t stood out enough since then, even with the support of a playoff-caliber team around him in New Jersey.
“His profile got raised through empty-calorie scoring on bad teams, and then he goes to Jersey, gets a big contract, and he kind of blends in,” one executive said. “You never see him dominate a game.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
N.J
RW
28
Monahan started out in Tier 4, which we felt was fair placement for a widely respected player who finished last season with 57 points in 54 games on a top line.
That decision received gentle but nearly universal pushback. The consensus: Monahan deserves plenty of credit for his work in Columbus, on and off the ice, but he needs to keep it up.
“He was there last year,” one data analyst said. “It’s just a question of the repeatability of it. (Tier 4C forwards like John Tavares and J.T. Miller) have done it a couple years in a row.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Placing Montembeault was a challenge — his goals saved above expected numbers are sterling in Montreal, but most of the insider panel doesn’t see the hype.
His playing style and the fact that private data is lower on him have something to do with it.
“He’s not the fastest, he’s not the most athletic, he’s not the biggest in net, and you’re not going to get highlight-reel performances and saves from Montembeault. But what he does is adjust really well to the games and what he needs to do to be successful,” a former goalie said. “I can’t say I’m a huge fan, but I have to respect what he’s done and the quality of work that he’s put out there.”
The consensus was that he belongs on this list, but firmly in Tier 5.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Sometimes it’s hard to look past a player’s environment and isolate their value — especially when they don’t play a flashy game. It’s why Sanheim’s selection to Team Canada raised some eyebrows at the 4 Nations Face-Off. But his all-around game is effective despite his surroundings on a rebuilding team.
“I love the two-sided ability, and I think that’s a bad situation that’s held a good player back,” an analyst said. “I would take Sanheim over almost anyone in the 5s.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Not many players were more difficult to rank than Stolarz.
“Stolarz is a super interesting name,” one analyst said. “When he plays, he’s freaking awesome, but he just doesn’t play enough.”
On a per-game level, no goalie has saved more goals above expected over the last two years. But being 45th in games played makes things tricky.
Part of that is backing up Bobrovsky in 2023-24. Part of that is injury concerns and splitting time with Joseph Woll in 2024-25. Either way, availability matters, no matter how good Stolarz is when he does play. That pushed him to Tier 5, even if he has top-10 talent.
“When he plays, he’s as quality as anybody else,” one former goalie said. “If he had played 55 games, he’d be a Vezina finalist.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
There’s nothing wrong with being a low-end first-line center, and that’s what Strome has grown into for Washington. Last season was his first as a point-per-game player, and while his five-on-five impacts aren’t great, he’s a more than capable trigger man once the Caps gain the zone.
Also, while his almost-40-year-old linemate helped pump up that point total, Strome carried his weight, too. “He did the Lord’s work by getting (Ovechkin) to the record,” one data analyst said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
As much as Blackwood’s athleticism was hyped over the years, it didn’t reap consistent results — until he rebuilt his game in San Jose. That paved the way for a trade to Colorado, where he showed he can be a starter for a playoff-caliber team.
“He was great in Colorado and performed at the level that they were hoping, and more,” a former goalie said. “I think we can be looking at a guy that’s going to be a top-10, top-15 goalie in the league.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Caufield isn’t the most dimensional winger; he doesn’t drive his own line and benefits from high-danger passes. That explains why he is down in support territory. But that scoring — a career-high of 37 goals last year — is still valuable, and it helped fuel Montreal’s push to the playoffs, where he put up another three goals. That’s why 5B is the perfect landing spot for him until he can either score more or add more substance, like a Tier 4-caliber player.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
MTL
LW
24
Chabot had a nice return to form, but it wasn’t enough to push him back toward his former lofty standing. With Sanderson taking over as the No. 1, Chabot has slid into a secondary role that suits him better, given his defensive deficiencies. But it also limits his league-wide perception.
“I don’t feel like he needs to be higher,” one analyst said. “I don’t think he’s a No. 1 or top pair kind of guy.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
DeBrincat is a small-statured winger who scores a bunch of goals … and doesn’t offer a whole lot else. That’s a tough sell for a lot of hockey people. The goals are great and DeBrincat creates a lot of chances, but the lack of dimension in his game keeps him in Tier 5. He’s a great secondary core piece, but he’s just not someone who fits a team’s top-level core. Not on a playoff team, anyway.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
DET
RW
27
Is Doughty still the guy at age 35? Many were skeptical after last season’s return from injury. He was OK; he just wasn’t Doughty. The Kings allowed 0.22 more expected goals against per 60 with Doughty on the ice, a career-worst mark for the usually stout defender.
After three straight years in 3C, Doughty drops to Tier 5. Good health and a chance at Team Canada can spark a bounce-back, but it feels more likely that the end is near.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
By the end of Edvinsson’s first full NHL season, he’d emerged as either a potential long-term partner for Moritz Seider or a defenseman capable of carrying his own pair. Some panelists believe the 6-foot-6 22-year-old can pop as an offensive producer. Either way, Detroit seems to have another building block.
“He’s gonna be good,” one scout said. “They kept him down when they could’ve brought him up, but they didn’t, and that’s how you develop.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
The 2024-25 version of Gavrikov proved to be an elite shutdown defenseman who can crush tough minutes against top competition. He built on a successful first full season in L.A., which earned him a seven-year deal with the Rangers in free agency.
Gavrikov looks like an ideal fit for New York, but the reality is the Rangers don’t have the Kings’ structure. So projecting how his game will hold up, especially into his 30s, is tricky. That’s what keeps him outside of 4C and 5A. But 5B is a sweet spot, right in line with other high-end No. 2s who excel defensively.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Hertl started to fade as The Guy in San Jose toward the end of his tenure, and his start in Vegas was relatively underwhelming, which knocked him from 4C to 5C last year. But after a full season with the Golden Knights, he looks like a perfectly effective 2C — which fits right in the support tier. Hertl was a stronger offensive creator last year, but it just didn’t translate enough in the postseason.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
There’s more than one center born in the mid-1980s still worthy of a spot on this list. Kopitar might be starting to show his age, our panelists said, and his role on the Kings is shifting a bit, but he remains a well-rounded, productive force at the top of a lineup. If he were younger, he’d be higher.
“His two-way awareness, his hockey sense, his hand-eye coordination — it’s all still elite. You’re just going to slow at that age,” one scout said. “You’re never going to out-run your legs, but his mind is still sharp as a tack.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Between Miro Heiskanen’s injury and the Stars’ weaknesses on the right side, Lindell had to do a lot of heavy lifting in Dallas last season. Cody Ceci was his primary partner, including in matchup minutes against Nathan MacKinnon in the first round of the playoffs.
Despite all that, Lindell’s defensive puck touches helped limit the damage and shift play back up the ice. So it’s only fitting that he makes his Player Tiers debut with other steady second-pair shutdown defensemen.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
McDonagh’s return to Tampa Bay stabilized the Lightning’s blue line. He absorbed minutes against some of the toughest competition in the league, which lightened Victor Hedman’s load and helped Erik Cernak rebound. His game may not be flashy, but his defensive chops are still a major strength. At 36 years old, an age-related decline could be on the horizon, but his consistency in recent seasons earns him a slot in 5B again this season.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Last year’s 49-point season? Too low. The 104-point campaign in 2022-23? Too high. Nugent-Hopkins’ production over his last few seasons has been erratic, making him difficult to pin down. Still, we’ve been fairly consistent with his standing around Tier 5. As McDavid’s sidekick, he’s the definition of a support player at this stage of his career. A bounce-back feels likely for the 32-year-old, though last year’s drop could also be a sign.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
EDM
LW
32
Last summer, it was tough to find a panelist who thought Ovechkin should be on this list. We put him in Tier 5C largely out of respect. This time, we had a few panelists wonder if his spot is too low. Funny what a record-breaking 44-goal season can do.
“How much did he score this year? It was enough. The other (stuff) wasn’t as bad,” one coach said.
At this point, he’s about to turn 40, he looked out of gas by the end of Washington’s postseason and he only positively impacts the game in one area … but hey, it’s an important area.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
WSH
LW
39
In an ideal world, Rielly is the offensive sidekick behind a do-it-all No. 1 defenseman — exactly what Thomas Chabot is to Jake Sanderson in Ottawa. The Leafs may not have a Sanderson type, but the addition of Tanev has taken a lot of burden off Rielly’s shoulders, allowing him to focus on what he does best. A return to the top power-play unit should spark a bounce-back in Rielly’s production.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Vilardi makes his Tiers debut in 5B, and it might be overdue; he’s 23rd in the NHL in all-situations goals per 60 over the last three seasons, ahead of Jack Hughes, Cole Caufield and linemates Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. If he stays in the lineup — and that’s been an issue — he’s a move-up candidate.
“His hands around the net and ability to finish is special,” a scout said, also noting how well that skill set complements Scheifele and Connor.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
WPG
RW
26
If you’re unfamiliar with Anderson, think of Chris Tanev. Neither is relevant offensively, but both are elite in their defensive contributions. Anderson, in fact, is No. 1, at plus-7. An executive called him “a high-end defensive defenseman,” and we agree.
Anderson’s work on defending zone entries last season was comparable to Gustav Forsling. His lack of offensive impact makes it impossible to put him in that class, but he has a role and fills it well.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
The key with Broberg was balancing all the attention with actual results.
“The hype got a little high because of the offer sheet thing, and a lot of eyes on him. But is he actually that good?” one executive said.
What earned him a slot in 5C is the fact that he proved himself in tougher top-four minutes in St. Louis, especially when Parayko was sidelined, after he played a sheltered role in Edmonton.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Declining mainstays and up-and-coming stars were debated for the fringes of this year’s top 150. Without a proven NHL track record to this point, Carlsson was one of those newcomers initially on the outside.
“He’s a true 1C that’s being cultivated, but he hasn’t done it yet,” one scout said.
Still, the potential is evident despite his conservative usage, coaching issues and the overall environment around him.
“I have a lot of time for him. You see flashes of brilliance,” a coach said.
Carlsson’s progression last season, along with his overall ceiling, ultimately landed him here. Now the question is whether he can keep rising.
“That Carlsson, Smith, Fantilli draft class, they’ll be in All-Star in two years, without a doubt,” an analyst added.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Dunn’s spot on the list might be more tenuous than any other defenseman’s — he followed up his 2022-23 breakout with two injury-shortened seasons for a sub-mediocre team. “He’s had one good year,” a scout said.
The contributions as a puck-mover were still solid and his per-60 offensive production has been decent enough, but if he doesn’t put it together for a full campaign, it’ll be tough to keep him around next year. Other players will level up.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Congrats to Fantilli, who was argued onto the list by our voters and also was the subject of one of their best quotes.
“You have to have Adam Fantilli on this list,” an executive said. “Who scores 30 goals at 20 years old, skates like the wind and hits like a truck?”
The answer is “nobody.” We’ll cop to our mistake; Fantilli belongs here based on production alone. His age and upside give him an even steeper edge over more established players, and his desire to “push the envelope” offensively, as one coach said, puts him above certain peers. Twenty-six of his 31 goals came at five-on-five, tied for second in the league.
“He’s the one guy that I think we could sit here and say, ‘Man, we should’ve had him up,'” another coach said. “He’s a really, really good player.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
From frequent trade rumors to a six-year contract extension, the vibe has certainly shifted on Garland over the last year. He may not have scored more, or controlled play at a stronger rate, but Garland did show an ability to play just as effectively in a larger role. For a two-way winger, that matters. Over the last two years, Garland is top-20 in scoring-chance suppression.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
VAN
RW
29
By Net Rating, Holloway is projected to be the most valuable player in all of Tier 5 for next season after a monster debut for the Blues. Holloway scored 63 points and tilted the ice heavily at five-on-five, dramatically changing St. Louis’ puck-possession game. He looked like a driver.
The question is whether he can do it again. There’s a lot of room for Holloway to shoot up this list, and past some veteran players. He’s just going to have to prove last season was no fluke.
“That was a heck of a surprise year,” one analyst said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
STL
LW
23
Karlsson (and, perhaps, Penguins GM Kyle Dubas) should send flowers to the league office. The 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, if nothing else, served as proof that Karlsson is still capable of playing at a relatively high level.
One scout said Karlsson looked “checked out” during the regular season. No player here has a worse Defensive Rating, and while he still starts the rush at a high level, his production has tailed off. Put him in a better environment, a few panelists said, and he could still right the ship.
“He can still play. It’s his ‘want,'” one coach said. “He’s got gas in the tank.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
It’s hard to imagine LaCombe being on many people’s radar this time last year. Not to this degree. After a tough rookie season, LaCombe took a meteoric leap and turned heads across the league. It feels as though more could be coming.
“He’s gonna be moving up,” one scout said.
LaCombe soaked up tough minutes and showcased incredible puck-moving ability in all three zones. He looks like a legit driver, a guy who could be the key to Anaheim’s ascent.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
“Why don’t you just put ‘Nathan MacKinnon’s winger’ instead?” one executive joked. “Just write that, and then in brackets put, ‘Currently Lehkonen.’”
Fair enough, but being the wingman for a superstar isn’t something just any player can do. Lehkonen isn’t at Hyman’s level, but he helps with the little stuff in the defensive zone that makes life easier for MacKinnon. Chipping in at a 30-goal pace isn’t bad either.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
COL
LW
30
Markstrom’s first year in New Jersey had some bumps, between injuries and overall woes due to his erratic playing style. But he also proved he could be the starting goalie the Devils craved, with 27 quality starts.
“I think the size, the success, the track record, all of that has got to get you somewhere,” a former goalie said. But that ‘somewhere’ has its limits in Tier 5 at this point in his career.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Protas’ growth wasn’t the focus in Washington — Alex Ovechkin’s record-setting season and the Capitals’ overacheivements took the spotlight. But his play contributed to both storylines, making him a riser to watch.
“He doesn’t even play power play there. So I’ll be very interested to see if he has 2,000 five-on-five points again,” an analyst said.
The key is keeping this pace up when his shooting percentage regresses, but there are signs he has more in his skill set to make up for that boost.
“The package is so compelling, the size and the skill, and he is producing,” another analyst added.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
WSH
RW
24
Sidney Crosby’s linemate (for now) squeaked on to the list for a second consecutive season. It doesn’t hurt that Rust has spent the last half-decade scoring at a 30-goal pace. That production, combined with substantive overall play, has won him a lot of fans, even though the big question looms.
“He probably deserves to be there right now,” one scout said, “but I just think if he gets away from Sid, you could be like, ‘Oh boy.'”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
Tier 5 — Support
PIT
RW
33
Initially, Samberg didn’t make the cut — a product of caution after his first season of proving his mettle in a top-four role. That mistake was rectified after we spoke to people within the game. Scouts, analysts, coaches and executive raved about Samberg’s game, with one executive calling him a high-end defenseman.
“He’s in the Travis Sanheim mold for me. Tanev for me is an older version,” another executive said.
Not every sheltered star can move up the lineup, but Samberg — who notably received more love than his partner, Neal Pionk — proved otherwise. The Tanev comparison feels especially apt given Samberg’s defensive positioning, elite stick and underrated puck-moving ability.
“People who play against him don’t like it,” one coach said.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
A warm, cozy, safety blanket of a man, and a game-changer for Toronto’s back end. Few defensemen retrieve pucks and break out cleanly as well as Tanev. He’s a smothering defensive force, one of the league’s best at frustrating opponents with his stick. Tanev may not have much of an offensive element — it’s the reason he doesn’t rank higher — but he is exactly what the Leafs’ blue line has been missing.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
No player was more responsible for Washington’s 111-point season than Thompson. Until Feb. 1, he had more goals saved above expected (26.5) than everyone except Connor Hellebuyck. He faded down the stretch, though, and that combined with a spotty track record left our panel less than sold.
“There’s a wild-child aspect to his game,” one former goalie said. “You don’t know what you’re gonna get, but last year it turned out to be great on most nights.”
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
After a disappointing 2024-25 season in New York, Trocheck dipped from 4B, where he made his Player Tiers debut last year.
Even with last season’s woes, Trocheck is “still getting it done as a 1C-level contributor,” one analyst said. “I don’t think guys like Eriksson Ek, Johnston, and even Barzal and Thompson were better.”
That impact, plus a projected bounce-back under new coach Mike Sullivan, suggest another top-150 season.
Projected stats (2025 – 26)
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(Top illustration: Will Tulos / The Athletic; Joe Sargent, David Berding, Derek Cain / Getty Images)