When asked on Tuesday if the Mercury had been game planning for the Liberty, rookie guard Monique Akoa Makani joked, “It’s a secret.” When head coach Nate Tibbetts was asked the same, with a smirk, he simply said, “Maybe.”
Finally, after a close loss to the Los Angeles Sparks that officially secured the matchup’s certainty, members of the Mercury finally let the cat out of the bag on how much they’ve been preparing to welcome the defending WNBA champions to Phoenix on Sunday.
“Oh yeah, we’re definitely preparing,” Mercury star Alyssa Thomas said postgame. “Everyone knew that this was going to be a first-round matchup.”
Tibbetts gave his first impressions, adding, “We’ve played them pretty well this year. I think our group is confident in what we can get done and how we want to attack them. But they’re a team that has experience, and they’ve done it together. It’s going to be a great series.”
Mercury had the upper hand in the regular season
As alluded to, the Mercury did play well against the Liberty in 2025. The teams matched up four times during the regular season, with Phoenix winning three of those battles. The Mercury did not just win those games; they dominated them. Their average margin of victory was 13 points. Most recently, Phoenix beat New York 80-63 on August 30.
However, it’s worth noting that the Liberty were shorthanded in every single one of those contests. All-Star guard Sabrina Ionescu was out with a toe injury for the August 30 matchup, while fourth-leading scorer Emma Meesseman hadn’t been signed for any of the previous games, including New York’s only win of the season series.
Meanwhile, the only notable Mercury player who missed a game against the Liberty this season was Kahleah Copper on June 19 – a game that Phoenix won anyway, 89-81. Both teams ultimately finished with identical records, 27-17, and both teams are now seemingly healthy and at full strength.
“We’ll be rested and ready to go, this is the new season,” Tibbetts said.
Phoenix’s edge over New York during the regular season holds little weight now: this matchup will be as close as it comes.
One of the marquee battles of the series will be in the frontcourt, where Thomas and Liberty forward Breanna Stewart, both perennial MVP candidates, are set to square off. Their contrasting styles make the matchup one of the most compelling storylines heading into Sunday.
Thomas had a 2025 season for the history books: notching a WNBA-record eight triple-doubles, with her 23 career triple-doubles (regular season and playoffs) accounting for nearly 40 percent of the league’s triple-doubles all-time.
Nicknamed “The Engine,” Thomas’s talents have transformed the way Phoenix plays under Tibbetts. Her ability to initiate offense from the forward spot has opened the floor for teammates, giving the Mercury a dynamic offense that has averaged the fifth-most assists in the league.
“I definitely take the most pride in getting my teammates easy shots,” Thomas said. “I think it’s a lost art. You know, everyone’s always focused on the offense and the scoring – it’s the flashy part of basketball. But for me, it’s about getting an open, easy shot for my teammate.”
Meanwhile, Stewart has had a similar impact with the Liberty, albeit with a different style of play. With a list of accolades long enough to write a book, Stewart is one of the most accomplished superstars in WNBA history.
The 6’4 forward stretches defenses with her shooting ability, punishes mismatches in the post and anchors New York’s defensive schemes with her length and rim protection. At age 30, Stewart led the Liberty in scoring with 18.3 points per game, blocks and steals at 1.4 apiece per game, while also adding 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.
Stewart has also become a perfect pick-and-roll duo with Ionescu, which will be a major offensive threat Phoenix will need to prepare for in order to win the series.
“She’s a great cutter, and it’s a way to get her easy looks and keep the defense honest,” Ionescu said. “[I] pride myself on trying to make her job as easy as I can.”
Both Thomas and Stewart have the magnitude and versatility to sway games to their team’s favor, making the pair’s matchup a crucial one to pay attention to in this series.
New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) shoots over Minnesota Lynx guard Courtney Williams (10) in the first quarter of Game 5 of the WNBA Finals at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., on Oct. 20, 2024. (Photo credit: Wendell Cruz | Imagn Images)
The X-Factor
Despite finishing with the same records, the Mercury received the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage by virtue of their better head-to-head record against the Liberty. This will be huge, as Phoenix’s home crowd, nicknamed the “X-Factor,” is one of the most energetic in the WNBA.
“They’re so loud,” Mercury forward Satou Sabally said. “Even when you sit on the bench and you see it more, observe more – it’s just so loud, the energy is great … It’s been a tremendous season, and the X-Factor has been a part of it, just like the players.”
Last season, the Mercury weren’t able to utilize the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd in the playoffs. Previously, the WNBA used a 2-1 format in the first round, meaning the higher seed hosted the first two games of the series, with the lower seed hosting the decisive Game 3. The No. 7 Mercury lost both games in Minnesota against the No. 2 Lynx to get eliminated in last year’s first-round playoff series.
The WNBA changed the format this season so that the higher-seeded Mercury will host Game 1 and the win-or-go-home Game 3, giving Phoenix the optimal opportunity to defend home court.
“I’m glad that the league redid the series where it’s 1-1-1,” Tibbets said. “It’s hard to win on the road in this league. We gotta protect home court – I think that’s going to be extremely important.”
Experience or momentum?
Playoff experience is always a topic of discussion when going into a closely-matched series like this one will be. For the Phoenix Mercury, the postseason presents a balance between youthful energy and veteran savvy.
The Mercury roster includes four rookies, two of whom have become crucial rotational players: Akoa Makani and Kathryn Westbeld. In the past two games, Tibbetts stretched his rotation to give his younger reserves more close-game experience, particularly in the Sept. 9 matchup against the Los Angeles Sparks, when the backups played the entire fourth quarter in a tense, high-energy game.
“They’ve been huge for us all season,” Thomas said. “It’s not easy your rookie year, especially playing year-round, coming from overseas to this. But I think they’ve all handled it with poise. We try to help them as much as we can, just to understand the ups and downs.”
Akoa Makani, who has played professionally in France since 2018, noted, “This past season was my very first playoff in France, and yeah, I kind of have some expectations on [what it will be like].”
Meanwhile, the Mercury’s veterans provide the voice and experience to lean on. Standout players like Thomas, Copper and DeWanna Bonner bring postseason know-how, with Copper having won a WNBA championship and Finals MVP in 2021 with the Chicago Sky. She’s also one of only two players returning from Phoenix’s playoff appearance last year.
“Everyone who’s been in a postseason like that knows it’s another level of basketball,” Thomas said. “Most players have to take their game to another level.”
The Liberty are no strangers to high-stakes playoff pressure. Last season, New York toppled the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals before besting the Lynx in a grueling five-game WNBA Finals.
The Liberty roster boasts championship experience in key players like Stewart, a three-time WNBA champion, and Meesseman, a six-time EuroLeague champion and 2019 WNBA champion and Finals MVP. Even guard Natasha Cloud‘s history playing under Tibbetts in Phoenix, before the trade that brought Thomas and Sabally to Phoenix, may help New York counter Tibbetts’ system.
New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) speaks with New York Liberty guard Natasha Cloud (9) during the WNBA game between the Connecticut Sun and the New York Liberty at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, USA on June 1, 2025. (Photo Credit: Chris Poss)
Game 1 tips off at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday in Phoenix, and with both teams hungry and at full strength, the stage is set for a first-round showdown that could go down to the wire. Don’t blink – this one promises fireworks from the tip.