Good morning,
The Padres beat the Rockies, which beats the alternative.
They did everything they needed to and more, which is never anything to complain about and certainly is not when things have been going poorly.
But wait right there.
Mike Shildt has a bone to pick with the contention that the Padres have struggled, and so he picked that bone after last night’s 11-3 victory.
“The one thing about the narrative that I’d like to get out there is, you know, the last eight games, what’s our record?” Shildt began.
At that point, I provided the correct answer of 5-3.
“That’s right,” Shildt said. “And that doesn’t sound like, ‘Oh my gosh, five and three!’ (But) how many wins do you get in a total season, if you go five and three?”
At that point, I failed a math quiz (for which I was given no advance notice) by offering a meek and desperate answer of 90.
“One hundred and one,” Shildt declared. “So, I mean, I get the opportunity to share my belief system too, right? And you know, that’s one thing that, for the sake of our mental health, you know, the feeling of like, ‘Oh my gosh! Oh my gosh! Oh my gosh!’”
This time, I presume he meant the bad kind of ‘Oh my gosh!” Because he went on to say, “And five and three is good baseball. Five and three is good baseball. Could it have been more? Sure? Could always be more. But I just like the way we’ve gone about things in the last week-plus.”
By that, I am certain that he meant the starting pitching has been better and the defense has been cleaner and the Padres have had, by his estimation, more quality at-bats.
We won’t spend much more time on this in today’s newsletter. It is true the Padres are playing better than they were in the two weeks preceding this stretch. How much better or whether it will be good enough to achieve their ultimate goal is something we don’t have to wait long to find out. So there is no need to debate the degrees of better.
But it is important to note — as I did in my game story (here) from last night — that while the Padres have won five of their past eight games, they have also won five of their past 13 games. Going back to Aug. 24 and including last night, they are 7-12.
And before last night, they had not gotten more than six hits nor scored more than four runs in any of their previous five games. And if we go back to Aug. 31, they had scored more than three runs in just two of their previous nine games at sea level.
Oh, and four of the five victories have come against the Rockies, who are on pace to lose more games than all but five teams in MLB history.
Oh, and six of the eight losses in the past 13 games have come against teams ranked in the bottom 10 in win-loss percentage this season.
But what is indisputable is that the Padres’ five victories in their past eight games (and their 81 victories in 149 games) are enough to have them very much in control of their destiny.
Yesterday was an overall win for the Padres.
They won, the Cubs lost, the Giants lost, the Reds lost and another day passed. After today, there will be just two weeks remaining in the regular season. The Padres will have 12 games to play. The Cubs, Giants, Reds and Dodgers will have 13.
I did not mention the Mets losing, because there is no discernable advantage to being the No.5 seed versus the No.6 seed.
The difference for the Padres is if they can improve one or two spots by passing the Cubs for the No.4 seed or winning the National League West over the Dodgers and can secure a home wild-card series.
With an eye on the latter objective, the Dodgers beating the Giants was not good for the Padres. But the fact is, the Giants have been closing on the Padres. So call that a draw.
Close call
Luis Arraez appears to be OK after a freak accident before last night’s ninth inning.
Arraez was struck on the side of his face on the cheek bone by an errant throw and knocked to the ground on his way out to second base between innings. He stayed down for several minutes before walking off the field accompanied by athletic trainers Ricky Huerta and Ben Fraser.
“He’s alert and clear-eyed,” Shildt said immediately after the game.
Arraez spent nearly an hour in the training room, at least part of that time with an ice pack on his jaw. Later, while walking to his car, Arraez told multiple people he was “good.”
The incident occurred as Arraez headed to his position and was behind first baseman Ryan O’Hearn when a throw from Will Wagner sailed high. Wagner, who had pinch-hit for Manny Machado in the eighth inning, was going to play third but moved over to play second base while Jose Iglesias came in to play third after Arraez was hurt.
Big margin is big
Last night was the first time since Aug. 20 that Shildt was able to navigate a victory without using any of his high-leverage relievers.
“We play close games,” Shildt said. “… It’s also nice to have games like tonight where you get the lead, you add on, you add on, you add on. … That’s important to our back-end, higher-leverage guys — for them to not have to get hot and get in the game and come in.”
The Padres won nine of their 21 games from Aug. 21 through Friday, but all but one of those games was within three runs at some point in the final three innings. And Shildt had Adrian Morejón work two innings in that game, Sunday in Colorado, in part because he had not pitched in five days.
None of the Padres’ four high-leverage relief pitchers pitched the past two days. It is the first time the Padres have gone two games without using any of them since Aug. 27 in Seattle and Aug. 29 in Minnesota.
Kyle Hart took over for Dylan Cease at the start of the seventh inning last night with the Padres up 9-1 and got the next five outs. Hart allowed a single in the eighth and was charged with a run after Bradgley Rodriguez came in and yielded two hits before ending the eighth. Yuki Matsui retired the Rockies in order in the ninth.
“At this point in the season, if we can win games like that where Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller, Robert Suarez and Adrian Morejón get to rest, that’s the number one thing,” Hart said. “If we can be strong for tomorrow going into an off-day, watch out.”
Milestones
Cease’s issues this season have been discussed repeatedly in this space.
But through his struggles, he has continued to do a couple things at an impressive pace in 2025.
He still strikes out a lot of batters, and he still takes the ball for every one of his scheduled starts.
Last night, while allowing one run and completing six innings for the first time in eight starts, Cease surpassed 200 strikeouts for the fifth consecutive season and also passed 1,000 career innings.
Cease’s 186 starts since his MLB debut on July 3, 2019, are two more than any other MLB pitcher in that span. His 1,004⅓ innings are eighth most.
Last night was his 30th start in 2025, making him the only pitcher in the major leagues to have started at least 30 games each of the past five seasons.
Cease is also the only pitcher in the major leagues with at least 200 strikeouts in each of the past five seasons.
The following list puts in perspective what type of pitcher accomplishes that feat.
That is the entirety of the list of active pitchers to have ever put together at least five consecutive seasons with at least 200 strikeouts. (Not counting the covid-shortened 2020 season.)
The 29-year-old Cease is one of 40 pitchers in MLB history to have five seasons in which he made 30 starts and struck out 200 batters.
“The biggest thing is just being on the field,” Cease said. “From there, it’s just executing. Obviously, I have a lot of teammates to thank for that. Catchers, staff. It really isn’t just a me thing.”
Big Three
Last night was just the second time this season Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. homered in the same game and the second time Merrill and Machado homered in the same game and the first time all three homered in the same game.
Said Shildt: “When our big boys go, it’s pretty dangerous.”
One of the biggest reasons the Padres’ slugging numbers are down is that those big boys have not produced the power that was expected out of them.
There are signs the trio’s lumber might be waking from its collective slumber.
- After a 2-for-29 stretch, Machado has a home run, a single and a walk in successive games.
- Merrill, whose season has been interrupted by three stays on the injured list, has homered in three of the past seven games. He also has two doubles and two triples in that span.
- Tatis has four home runs in the past 10 games after hitting one in his previous 34.
Bogaerts progress
Xander Bogaerts will be among the Padres leaving San Diego after today’s game.
He will just be on a different flight.
As he prepares to join the Padres, perhaps as soon as for their series against the White Sox in Chicago at the end of the week, Bogaerts will spend a few days at the Padres’ facility in Peoria, Ariz., primarily getting at-bats against live pitching and ramping up his running.
“There’s no firm timeline,” manager Mike Shildt said. “He’s still in the process when he’s not full-bore, 100% sprinting. How long that takes will dictate the timeframe.”
Yesterday, Bogaerts stood in against minor-league pitchers brought in to pitch to some of the Padres’ players who have not gotten a lot of playing time lately. The purpose was to track the flight of pitches. He also worked in the infield for a second straight day and took batting practice in the cage.
Johnson stays hot
Pinch-hitting for Tatis in the eighth inning, Bryce Johnson launched his second career home run and his first in two seasons (95 games) with the Padres.
While the power was surprising, it cannot be surprising any more when he gets a hit.
Johnson, a switch-hitter who entered this season with a .177 average (22-for-124) in his career, is batting .370 (23-for-62) since being recalled in mid-June.
He is doing what is often considered the most difficult thing in baseball — staying in a groove at the plate without getting to the plate very much. Last night was his fourth at-bat since Sept. 2.
He is batting .625 (10-for-16) when coming off the bench this season.
“It’s the coaching staff,” Johnson said. “Being with these guys last year, they know me, they know my swing. They know when things aren’t going well, when things are going well. Things are going well now. It’s maintenance. They keep me sharp for times like this.”
Production
Ramón Laureano has cooled down a bit since his torrid start with the Padres, but he continues to drive in runs at a nearly unprecedented pace. He was 1-for-3 with a two-run double and a sacrifice fly last night.
His 29 RBIs are the most in a player’s first 40 games with the Padres since Justin Upton had 29 RBIs in his first 40 games of 2015. Just four other players have ever had more — Bubba Trammell (36 in 2001), Gary Sheffield (34 in 1992), Ryan Klesko (32 in 2000) and Joe Carter (31 in 1990).
Tidbits
- The Padres have won 174 games over the past two seasons. That ties Shildt with Bruce Bochy (1997-98) for the second most victories by a Padres manager in back-to-back seasons. One more victory will tie Shildt with Dick Williams, who guided the Padres to 175 wins from 1984 to ‘85.
- Machado reached 25 home runs for the 10th time in his career. He joins Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber as the only players to hit at least 25 home runs every full season since 2018 (excluding the ‘20 season).
- Elias Díaz, who caught Cease for the first time since late July, went 2-for-4 last night. He is 7-for-20 (.350) with two home runs over his past six starts.
- Arraez was 2-for-5 last night and is 7-for-17 during a four-game hitting streak.
- Last night was the Padres’ 13th game this season at Petco Park with at least four extra-base hits. They are 12-1 in those games. Their 13 such games at home are fewest in MLB.
- Rodriguez was called up yesterday to take the roster spot of JP Sears, who was optioned to Triple-A. Rodriguez, whose only other appearance was his MLB debut on May 31, when he threw 1⅔ scoreless innings, allowed his inherited runner and one other run to score last night.
- Nestor Cortes, on the injured list with left biceps tendinitis, is likely headed to Arizona with Bogaerts. It is unclear what the plan is with Cortes, though the Padres could use him to start a game in the season’s final week, depending on when they clinch a playoff spot.
All right, that’s it for me. Early game (1:10 p.m. PT) and then a flight to New York.
Talk to you tomorrow.