NBA training camps open in two weeks. Jonathan Kuminga remains an unsigned restricted free agent. Even more worrisome? Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors don’t seem particularly close on a deal either.

Unlike Josh Giddey and the Chicago Bulls, who needed to meet in the middle on a long-term deal, Kuminga and the Warriors have a lot more to figure out. This isn’t just about money or years, or even the combination of the two. There are questions about no-trade clauses, Bird rights, Base Year Compensation in a potential sign-and-trade and the prospect of Kuminga being an unrestricted free agent in 2026, when multiple teams project to have significant cap space.

There are some fairly important short- and long-term implications for both Kuminga and the Warriors on his next deal. We’re going to take a look at some potential factors for both the player and the team, in the immediate and down the line.

The Warriors Cap Sheet

As of this writing, the Golden State Warriors have only nine players signed to standard contracts. That’s five below the NBA’s minimum of 14 players (teams can drop below 14 players for up to 14 days at a time and for no more than 28 total days each regular season) and six below the maximum of 15. Golden State has preferred to fill all 15 roster spots, as they proactively manage both games and minutes played for their veterans throughout the season.

The Warriors are currently not facing any form of hard-cap issues. Golden State currently sits about $14.8 million under the luxury tax. In addition, the Warriors are $22.5 million under the first apron and $34.3 million under the second apron.

Let’s take Jonathan Kuminga out of the mix for a moment. Golden State isn’t going to want to trigger anything more than a second-apron hard cap, if they can avoid it. That means they’ll limit themselves to using the Taxpayer MLE of about $5.7 million. From there, it’s probably minimum contracts to fill out the rest of the roster.

If the Warriors take the above approach, that would leave just over $22 million available for Kuminga while fitting in under the second-apron hard cap that would be triggered by using the Taxpayer MLE. So, that’s sort of the baseline for Kuminga, and likely why the team had offered him deals that were for either $45 million over two seasons or $75 million over three seasons. Both of those contracts could come with structures that allow GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. to re-sign Kuminga, use the Taxpayer MLE and fill out the roster with four veteran minimum signings.

Working under these tight margins is why the Warriors haven’t filled out their roster yet. There’s likely an understanding with the free agents they’re linked to (Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II and Seth Curry among them) that they’ll sign them to one type of contract if Kuminga is returning, and another type of deal if Kuminga isn’t going to be on the roster. Golden State isn’t going to complete any other deals until they have resolution with Kuminga, simply because of how tight these margins are.

The Qualifying Offer

With each passing day, the likelihood of Jonathan Kuminga signing his $7.9 million qualifying offer increases. Neither Kuminga nor the Warriors are going to want this to drag into training camp, never mind into the regular season. The “easy” out is that Kuminga signs the qualifying offer. It’s not the best outcome for Kuminga or Golden State, but it’s certainly a way this could go.

Why would Kuminga not want to sign the qualifying offer? First, he’d lose out on some money. At the very least, it appears that Kuminga has an offer for about $22 million the table for this season. That’s about $14 million more than playing out the season on the qualifying offer.

Second, Kuminga would have no long-term security while playing out the year on the qualifying offer. It’s a one-year deal. If things go sideways, he could be in a rough spot this coming offseason. Kuminga would be betting on himself, but it would be a wager made while playing for a team that may no longer see him as a necessary part of the immediate rotation or the future one.

Lastly, signing the qualifying offer would mean that if Kuminga is traded, he’d lose his Bird rights as an unrestricted free agent in 2026. Players on a one-year deal lose their Bird rights when traded. That’s why Kuminga would get an implicit no-trade clause if he signed the qualifying offer. And if Kuminga is traded after signing the qualifying offer, he would not be extension-eligible, because he’d be on a one-year deal, which a player can’t extend off of. He’d be headed for free agency in the offseason, no matter what.

One of the positives of signing the qualifying offer is that implicit no-trade clause. Kuminga would have full control if the Warriors were to find a deal for him. (Note: This is exclusive of a sign-and-trade right now, which we’ll talk about later.)

Another positive for Kuminga is that he would be an unrestricted free agent in 2026. The Warriors, or another team if he were traded, would have no control over his free agent status. As it currently stands, somewhere between five and 10 teams should have significant cap space next offseason. That’s good news for Kuminga.

On the Warriors side, things basically flip the opposite way of Kuminga’s side of things. If Kuminga signed the qualifying offer, Golden State could stay well below the second-apron hard cap. They still wouldn’t have enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE of $14.1 million, but they’d have considerably more wiggle room to work with.

Beyond this upcoming season, Golden State wouldn’t have any additional money on the books for Kuminga moving forward. With just Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski on the books for 2026-27, the Warriors are basically at the salary cap. Not carrying an additional $23 to $25 million for Kuminga could give Dunleavy the room to make a couple of impactful additions.

On the negative side, Kuminga on the qualifying offer gives him control in trades vs the team. That’s always tough, and it’s why on any kind of one- or two-year deal with a second-year option (team or player), the Warriors have insisted that Kuminga waive the implicit no-trade clause. The team wants to retain control, and if Kuminga signs the qualifying offer, he’ll have it.

Beyond that, if Kuminga signs the qualifying offer and agrees to a trade, he’d be only $7.9 million salary. That’s not going to get Golden State all that much. They’d rather have him on a bigger contract and as more matching salary, as long as the future years are team-controlled.

And lastly for the Warriors, but probably most obvious, they’d see Kuminga hit unrestricted free agency next summer. In an offseason where multiple teams project to have significant cap space, that could all but end Kuminga’s time in the Bay Area. And, of course, pending free agent status could impact Kuminga’s trade value.

Related to the above: Working out a sign-and-trade would still be possible for Kuminga and the Warriors, but when the other side might have cap space, it’s nowhere near as necessary. That makes it far less likely. In those situations, Kuminga would likely just sign with the team straight out, assuming they had the cap space to do so.

Sign-and-Trade Complications

A very popular question related to Jonathan Kuminga and the Warriors has been: “Why don’t the Warriors just find a sign-and-trade deal now?”

That’s fair to ask, but it’s hardly that simple.

First, Kuminga and the acquiring team need to be on board. That’s probably the easier part. Even though cap space has all but dried up around the NBA (the Brooklyn Nets still have some, and we’ll it on that next!), sign-and-trade deals are still possible. But it’s complicated for a couple of reasons.

First, and the easier part to explain, is that 20 teams are hard-capped at the first or second apron. Of that group, 14 teams are so close to their hard cap that acquiring Kuminga via sign-and-trade would be pretty difficult. Of the 10 non-hard-capped teams, only a handful have the ability to acquire Kuminga. The ones who can’t would trigger a first-apron hard cap by acquiring Kuminga and they don’t have the flexibility to do so.

That leaves a fairly limited market. Could teams like the Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons or Memphis Grizzlies get involved? Sure. They’ve all got enough room under the first apron to bring in Kuminga on a commensurate salary. But, that’s not as easy to pull off on the Warriors side of things.

In a sign-and-trade transaction, Base Year Compensation (BYC) can come into play. BYC is triggered when a Bird or Early Bird free agent re-signs with an over-the-cap team as a part of a sign-and-trade and gets a contract that is 20% larger than his previous deal. When BYC is triggered, the player’s outgoing salary in trade is 50% of the new salary figure, while being 100% of the salary amount on the incoming side.

Let’s keep it simple in an example involving Kuminga. If the Warriors are going to sign-and-trade Kuminga, let’s say it’s happening at a first-year salary of $30 million, which seems to be where Kuminga would like to land in a new deal. That means on the Warriors side of the trade, he’d count for $15 million, while counting at the full $30 million amount on the acquiring side.

Now, because the expanded salary-matching rules allow for Golden State to take back an additional $8.5 million in a deal where they send out $15 million, they could return a salary of roughly $23.5 million for Kuminga. That’s a pretty solid amount, but it still makes finding a trade tricky. Roughly $6.5 million can be a tricky amount to make up the difference on.

The Warriors would need to find the right trade partner, with the right amount of salary to send back to find a deal. And that’s assuming Kuminga and the acquiring team are in agreement too. It’s certainly possible, but it’s not as easy as many seem to think.

Signing an offer sheet with the Nets

As of this writing, the Brooklyn Nets are sitting on about $16.1 million in cap space. If they were to waive some players who have partial/non-guaranteed contract, the Nets could create about $24 million cap space. That’s enough to give Jonathan Kuminga an offer sheet that the Warriors probably wouldn’t match. Let’s say something in the range of $103 million over four years with a player option Year 4. That’s probably not a deal Golden State is willing to match.

But, and there’s always a but, Brooklyn hasn’t been inclined to play the restricted free agent game this offseason. Unlike the previous rebuild he led, Sean Marks has built through the draft and trades so far this time around. No offer sheets to restricted free agents as of yet. And it doesn’t seem likely that will change in the dwindling days of this offseason.

The Nets drafted five players in the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft. They have some returning younger players. And they acquired three veterans via trades who will factor into the rotation. That’s a pretty stuffed roster. Even though Kuminga is going to be only 23 years old at the start of the season, he’s probably not the kind of young player that Brooklyn is ready to target just yet.

Re-signing with the Warriors

Of course, the door remains open for Jonathan Kuminga and Golden State to sign a new deal. The Warriors reportedly increased their offer to a three-year deal (with a third-year team option) worth $75 million. That’s up from the $45 million over two years (with a second-year team option) that Golden State had previously been offering. While there are still major hurdles to overcome, there’s at least some continued negotiations happening.

Those hurdles include money, years, options and no-trade clauses. If the Warriors do a two-year deal, they want Kuminga to waive his implicit no-trade clause. That’s been a no-go from Kuminga to date.

To give the Warriors a team option on a two- or three-year deal, Kuminga’s side wants an additional $10 million in annual money. The belief seems to be that’s the value of a team option to them. So, instead of a deal starting around $20 to $22 million, Kuminga would start around $30 to $32 million. As we covered, that could cause issues with Golden State’s ability to fill their remaining roster spots in the way they have laid out.

If he’s taking less money, Kuminga wants a fully guaranteed deal, or a player option. That’s not something the Warriors have been willing to budge on.

The Predicted Outcome

Jonathan Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors appear headed for a breakup. Whether that happens before the season or down the line, it seems pretty inevitable. ESPN did a good job of outlining the internal split in the Warriors leadership on Kuminga. Unless the pro-Kuminga side wins out, it’s hard to see how the player and team stay together long-term.

Finding a sign-and-trade at this point of the offseason seems unlikely. As we laid out, it’s not impossible, but it is complicated. And an offer sheet doesn’t appear coming from the Nets either.

That leaves Kuminga signing the qualifying offer or signing a likely short-term deal with Golden State. The Warriors seem intent on not giving Kuminga any deal that doesn’t include team control in the final season, as well as a contract where Kuminga waives any right to a no-trade clause. They haven’t moved off that stance yet, and don’t seem likely to.

Kuminga seems intent on keeping his options as open as possible unless he’s paid what he feels he’s worth on a short- or long-term deal. While his options to do so are somewhat limited, Kuminga had held fast this long. There’s no reason to give now.

The likely path forward is that Kuminga signs the qualifying offer. We already saw Cam Thomas do this earlier this offseason. When Thomas and the Nets were nowhere close on a new contract, he chose to bet on himself and to sign the qualifying offer. The situations aren’t exactly the same, as the Warriors are trying to contend and the Nets are rebuilding, but both players were similarly stuck between short-term, team-friendly deals and the qualifying offer.

It looks like Kuminga is poised to make a similar bet on himself. It may cost him some money this season, but he’d have full control moving forward. That’s probably worth it, as opposed to putting everything in the Warriors hands.