Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

For the past two-and-a-half seasons, the Detroit Lions have been one of the best teams in the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens are a perennial playoff participant, behind two-time MVP Lamar Jackson.

So to some observers, it was probably a little surprising to see the Ravens as 6-point favorites when NFL Week 3 odds opened on Sunday. 

That number has since reeled in to 4.5. But the bookmakers had sound reasoning for making the Lions a significant underdog.

“The Ravens are by far our No. 1-rated team,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “You might say, ‘Wow, that looks like a pretty big spread.’ But it just shows how respected the Ravens are.”

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that marquee matchup and other intriguing games, as we dive into NFL Week 3 betting nuggets.

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Monday Night Showdown

Part of the calculus in setting a Lions-Ravens spread — or any spread involving Detroit this season — is that Lions coach Dan Campbell lost both of his coordinators from last season. Ben Johnson left his offensive coordinator post to take over as Chicago Bears coach, and former defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is now coaching the New York Jets.

“The expectation was that the Lions were going to take a step back this year, losing those highly touted assistants,” Feazel said.

That said, the Lions-Ravens line is moving toward Detroit. Baltimore dipped to -5.5/-5 on Tuesday, then went to -4.5 on Wednesday morning.

“The Lions got some respect from sharp bettors,” Feazel said Wednesday afternoon. “Action-wise, there’s slightly more Ravens money. What we’re probably gonna need is the Ravens to win and the Lions to cover.

“And we’re gonna need the Under.”

Which is no surprise, considering in Week 2, Detroit rolled Chicago 55-21, while Baltimore thumped Cleveland 41-17. The public betting masses love scoring, so they love betting on the Over, particularly in prime-time standalone games.

NFL Rocks On FOX

For the second straight week, the Philadelphia Eagles are involved in a rematch from last season’s playoffs. In Week 2, the defending Super Bowl champions went to Kansas City and won 20-17.

In Week 3, Philadelphia hosts the Los Angeles Rams, who nearly beat the Eagles in the divisional round last season. Philly held on for a 28-22 victory as a 7.5-point home favorite.

Caesars Sports opened the Eagles as 4.5-point home favorites, then got some surprising early action.

“We’re seeing one-way traffic, and it’s not on the Eagles. So far, it’s coming in on the Rams,” Feazel said. “We went to Ravens -4 and -3.5, and we might see -3. There’s a lot of hype around the Rams. They were the only team that gave the Eagles trouble in the playoffs.”

NFL Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay is on one of Sunday’s lower-profile games: Indianapolis vs. Tennessee.

“I took Tennessee +4, going against a 2-0 Colts team that’s going on the road for the first time this season,” McKay said. “I think it’s a good spot. The Tennessee defense is strong. Hopefully, Cam Ward and the offense can take some pressure off the defense here.”

Thursday Theater

When the schedule makers plugged the Miami Dolphins vs. the Buffalo Bills into the Week 3 Thursday night game, it was surely with the hope that Miami would return to being a good team.

It appears that’s not the case — at least not yet. 

The Dolphins are 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), getting blown out 33-8 at Indianapolis in Week 1, then losing 33-27 to visiting New England in Week 2.

On the flip side, you’ve got the perennial power Bills at 2-0 SU and ATS. Caesars opened Buffalo -12.5, and the line had a couple cups of coffee at -11.5 before settling at -12 on Wednesday morning.

“The Bills are Super Bowl favorites, and the Dolphins look like they’re in trouble,” Feazel said. “That’s being translated into the betting market. The Bills are getting a lot of action, and I don’t see that changing.

“The book is gonna need the Dolphins to show up and be competitive.”

Quarterback Quandaries

For the NFL, most sportsbooks put out look-ahead lines a week early on every matchup. Last week, Caesars’ look-ahead line for Cincinnati vs. Minnesota was Vikes -2.5, and that was bet down to -1.5.

However, on Sunday, Bengals QB Joe Burrow suffered yet another injury. He is having toe surgery and could miss three months.

With that in mind, Caesars reopened Sunday night at Vikings -5.5, though that quickly dove to -4.5.

Then on Monday, Minnesota announced that QB J.J. McCarthy (ankle) is out this week and perhaps longer. The line tumbled to as low as Vikings -2.5, and it’s been steady at -3 since Tuesday morning.

Jake Browning vs. Carson Wentz — backups for the Bengals and Vikes, respectively — isn’t that attractive so far.

“Action-wise, we’re not seeing a lot on either side. People aren’t running to the window to bet either quarterback. But they are betting the Under,” Feazel said.

The total opened at 44.5 and is down to 41.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie

Neither NFL Week 3 odds nor college football Week 4 odds have seen much in the way of major wagers at midweek. So let’s go in the not-so-wayback machine to a couple of massive Monday night wagers that didn’t turn out so well, both at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Tampa and Houston combined for 17 first-quarter points, and there were 24 points on the board with 9:41 left in the second quarter. The Texans led 14-10, and both offenses were on cruise control.

But that was it for the first half. There was no third-quarter scoring and only 15 second-half points overall in Tampa’s 20-19 victory. 

So that Over bet was a huge donation to the house.

Ditto for the Texans -2.5 bet. Houston got a touchdown with 2:10 left in the fourth, then missed the 2-point conversion, but still led 19-14. That’s a cover.

However, Baker Mayfield then led Tampa Bay to a final-second touchdown and a 20-19 victory. That’s another $173,000 into DraftKings’ coffers.

It wasn’t all bad news for bettors Monday night. Another DraftKings customer utilized a $25 bonus bet — ostensibly a free ride — on a 16-leg NFL moneyline parlay and added in a player prop of Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown for Green Bay.

All 17 legs came in, with the Buccaneers and Chargers finishing it off Monday night. At huge odds of +457725 — or in easier-to-digest form, just beyond 4577/1 — the bettor turned a profit of $114,431.05.

Keep in mind, those types of parlays are basically sports betting’s version of a lottery ticket. For that matter, bookmakers will gladly take even a four- or five-team parlay all day long. That’s how sportsbooks stay in business.

So temper your expectations accordingly. Enjoy this weekend’s games!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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