HOUSTON — The Texas Rangers, while short in some areas, have not lacked an internal confidence in their abilities to beat the odds, conventional thought and historical precedence this season.
They believed that their rotation could maintain its early dominant pace. They believed that their offense would resurrect itself after a dismal start. They believed that a host of anonymous newcomers could carry the team whilst high-profile stars sat injured.
They may still believe that the postseason is a viable destination after floundered in a key series against the Houston Astros.
Their tone, though, has shifted into a sullen recognition of the immense challenge that they now face to have a shot at October baseball and the probability that will work against them.
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“I don’t really know exactly where we stand,” outfielder Wyatt Langford said Wednesday night after a 5-2 loss at Daikin Park, “but I’m sure we probably have to win pretty much every game.”
Not quite, but, close. The Rangers now trail the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners by 4.5 games for the American League’s third Wild Card berth with nine games left to play in the regular season.
Their three-game series against the Astros represented the last-best opportunity to handle their own business. The Rangers could’ve at least leapfrogged the Astros had they swept or kept pace with the pack had they won two of three; instead the Astros mowed them down, claimed the Silver Boot Series trophy again and are first place in the AL West.
“It is tough because it’s the last time you face them and that’s who you’re chasing,” third baseman Josh Jung said. “But we’re not out of it.”
Mathematically, no, they are not. But, as manager Bruce Bochy said Wednesday night, “that margin of error has gotten real small.”
“We know our backs are to the wall,” Bochy said. “That’s how we have to look at it.”
That’s how it is. The Rangers are eliminated from playoff contention if they win three or fewer of their next nine games regardless of what the rest of the field does. Four wins in that stretch does not guarantee much, either, because the Mariners, now 83-69, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Rangers hold the same advantage over the Red Sox, at least, but must also deal with the Cleveland Guardians who sit between them and the final playoff spot. Even five or six wins would require significant meltdowns from their competitors.
If the Rangers were to win all nine games, as Langford suggested, they’d still need help. The Red Sox would need to go 5-5 or worse for the Rangers to finish above them in that instance. The Mariners would need to go 4-6 or worse for the Rangers to finish above them. The Guardians would need to finish 8-3 or worse and lose one of the three games that they’ll play vs. the Rangers to avoid any tiebreaker drama on that front. The Rangers need to finish above at least two of those three teams.
“We kind of have to play perfect on the way out just to have a fighting chance,” designated hitter Joc Pederson said. “It is what it is. We’ve got to move forward and learn from it. It sucks.”
They’ll move forward Friday when the out-of-contention Miami Marlins arrive at Globe Life Field. That’s the start of a six-game home stand which also includes a Minnesota Twins team that has been among baseball’s worst since their fire sale at the July 31 trade deadline.
It’s a window that the Rangers must capitalize on to have a chance.
Even that may not be enough.
“We’ve just got to go out there and win games,” right-handed pitcher Jacob deGrom said. “Try to win the rest of them.”
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