Dry morning, but storms expected
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Good Monday morning from The Weather Authority! I want to start off by saying, if you’re heading out early, you’ll find things pretty comfortable. It’s a dry start across Jacksonville with most temperatures sitting in the 70s. In Macclenny, we just hit 70 degrees, while spots further west, like Waycross and Lake City, started off in the 60s. Mayport is already feeling warm at nearly 78 degrees this morning, compared to 71 degrees in Jacksonville.
Winds are calm, with hardly any breeze out there right now. That calm won’t last all day, though—grab your poncho if you can, or toss one in the kids’ backpacks, just in case! By early afternoon, we’re forecast to hit the mid-80s, around 84 degrees by 2 p.m., when the Exact Track 4D radar shows a 40% chance of pop-up showers and storms. These are expected to begin showing up as we get into the late morning, around 10 or 11 a.m.
Let me reassure you: this is not a washout day. Showers and storms expected this afternoon should be hit-or-miss and will likely not last long; still, a few could pack a punch with heavy rain, thunder, or lightning—especially by mid-afternoon. Some showers might even stay offshore and not hit land. Most of us will stay dry through the morning, but keep an eye on changing skies. A high pressure system north of the area is expected to help keep rain chances more limited.
Hurricane Gabrielle: what to know
Now to the tropics. We’re keeping a close eye on Hurricane Gabrielle. As of the 5 a.m. update, Gabrielle has winds of 90 miles an hour and is moving slowly to the north-northwest at about 10 miles an hour.
Based on the latest forecast, Gabrielle is not expected to come anywhere near our local area in terms of a landfall. The main concern for us right now is stronger rip currents along the coast. If you’re headed to the beach, use extra caution in the surf. The most likely impacts will be felt over Bermuda, and the latest track has Gabrielle potentially strengthening to a Category 2 hurricane while remaining well out to sea.
Right now, there is no direct threat from Gabrielle to our area, which is great news. I’ll keep you updated as new advisories come in.
Broader tropical outlook this week
In addition to Gabrielle, I’m watching two other systems in the Atlantic that could organize over the next few days. One has about a 10 to 30% chance of developing, while the other system has a 10 to 60% chance. Warm waters and low wind shear are making these areas worth watching closely.
It’s not unusual for tropical activity to ramp up this time of year, but right now, none of these systems are forecast to bring direct impacts to our area. I’ll keep you posted if that changes.
Have weather photos to share? Upload them to SnapJAX at news4jax.com/snapjax!
Copyright 2025 by WJXT News4JAX – All rights reserved.