“For most soybean farmers in North Dakota, you’re looking at about a $100 to $150 loss per acre on every acre of soybeans planted,” Gackle said.
On his own farm, he expects losses could top $400,000 this year.
Gackle said the losses are not just tied to individual farmers. “It’s the small businesses, the local grocery stores, hardware stores, our local schools, our financial institutions, they are all feeling the hurt from this.”
Gackle was in Washington, D.C., last week talking with lawmakers. Congress is considering another possible aid package after approving $10 billion in economic aid last year. Still, Gackle said farmers want open markets, not aid checks.
Some markets also are impossible to replace, regardless of other trade deals that might be announced.
“We’re always looking to find new markets, expand markets, but China just being the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, you can’t replace that,” Gackle said. “That China market was built over 40 years. You can’t replace it in a month or six weeks.”
STORAGE PRESSURE AND BASIS PAIN
Grain storage was already going to be a pressure point for North Dakota farmers going into harvest after a derecho in June destroyed tens of millions of bushels of grain storage in the state.
Johnson farms in Richland County, just miles from where the Red River begins. He noted nearby processors are only bidding what they need because “they can only grind so much.” While new plants are coming online, the market right now highlights that soybeans face space and storage problems without those early Chinese shipments.
“We’ve got processing plants 15 miles either way,” Johnson said. “But once the bins and elevators are full, they’re not taking any more. Basis is going to get worse.”
That storage crunch is forcing tough decisions: store soybeans or corn?
“Normally, we haul beans to town and store the corn. This year we may have to do the opposite,” Johnson said.
Corn yields also could hit 200 bushels per acre (bpa) in Johnson’s area — well above state averages. But he’s racing against time.
Johnson had worried about frost affecting his harvest window, but the next two weeks appear like he will avoid that concern. After getting a couple of inches of rain late last week, Johnson said Monday he could use some wind to dry out fields, but the forecast appears to avoid any frost issues in the short term.
“Our normal frost date is around Sept. 25,” he said. “The beans will make it, but corn could get dinged. Then you’ve got wet corn, which is harder to handle.”
Corn harvest will follow, weather permitting. And storage decisions — whether in his bins, at local processors, or contracted farther down the road — will shape his fall.
“It’s a good problem to have — too much production,” Johnson said with a laugh. “But it still creates a lot of headaches.”
Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com
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