At the end of the regular season, members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) cast their votes for the major end-of-year awards. As is my custom, I keep the actual vote I have a secret (this year, I’m tasked with voting for the National League Rookie of the Year award), but put together fake ballots for the other major postseason player awards the BBWAA hands out.
I’m pretty sure the winners of all of these awards, including the one I have, are pretty obvious right now, so forgive me if this column doesn’t shock you. There was only one award where I could make a strong case for someone other than the heavy favorite at the moment, but putting that other player first would have just been contrarian, not backed up by the facts.
Anyway, these votes don’t count. At all. But here’s how I would have voted for American League and National League MVP and Cy Young, and the American League Rookie of the Year.
American League MVP
I don’t think this is much of a debate at all. If it weren’t for the facts that a) Aaron Judge has won this before, including last year and b) Cal Raleigh is a great story and easy fan favorite with the best nickname of any current MLB player, Judge would probably win this in a runaway. (And maybe he will anyway.) But I suppose people need something to write and argue about.
I think Raleigh is closer to Bobby Witt Jr. than he is to Judge, and WAR calculations show the same. None of this is a knock on Raleigh’s historic season, just a discussion of this specific award; there’s no shame in being the second-best player in the league.
Judge, by the way, is one season away from achieving Hall of Fame eligibility, and he’s already over 60 bWAR, with two MVPs on his shelves and a third coming soon, plus the Rookie of the Year award and more than 360 homers. At this point, he’s built a Hall of Fame-worthy resume other than the lack of length to his career. He’s also just 3 WAR behind Dave Winfield among all position players 6 feet 6 or taller. This is his fourth 8-WAR season, his fourth 50-homer season and his fifth season with an OBP over .400.
My preseason pick for the award, Julio Rodríguez, had a mediocre first half, but has salvaged his season with plus defense in center and a power surge since the All-Star break. He’s hit more homers in the second half than he had in the (longer) first. I’d also like to point out that I predicted a breakout season for Maikel Garcia … in 2024. Can I get partial credit for that?
I was also surprised that no Orioles hitter made the list, just in the sense that we all assumed that the Orioles’ offense would carry them this year, maybe right back to the playoffs, and while their pitching hasn’t been very good, the lineup let them down just as much, with only Gunnar Henderson (5.1 bWAR) worth even three wins above replacement.
American League Cy Young
LHP
Tigers
LHP
Red Sox
LHP
Yankees
RHP
Astros
RHP
Mariners
I see this as Tarik Skubal in a rout, and Garrett Crochet as No. 2 as some lesser sort of rout, and then Max Fried or Hunter Brown in either order.
There’s about as much suspense here as there is in an episode of NCIS. I know Trevor Rogers’ season grades out especially well via Baseball-Reference’s ERA-based WAR calculation, but not only is that dependent on a fluky-low BABIP, but also he’s only thrown 106 innings, and I’d rather use the last spot or two here on someone who handled what passes for a starter’s workload today and pitched nearly as well.
There have been only 47 six-WAR seasons by left-handed pitchers since the start of 2000, according to Baseball-Reference, and Skubal has two of them, as many as David Price or Blake Snell (who also won Cy Young Awards both times he did it).
American League Rookie of the Year
1B
Athletics
OF
Red Sox
SS
Athletics
Nick Kurtz should win this unanimously — he’s been excellent, no one else has been close, and he even has the four-homer game to add an exclamation point to his season.
I slid Roman Anthony over Jacob Wilson for producing nearly as much value in only about 60 percent of the playing time, plus Anthony doesn’t play half his games in a Little League ballpark.
Also, shoutout to Rule 5 pick Shane Smith, whose rookie season for the White Sox has been worth 1.7 fWAR; he’s one of four AL rookie pitchers to throw at least 100 innings this year, led by Will Warren. Few Rule 5 picks turn into valuable long-term pieces for the drafting club, but Smith seems like he’ll be a big help to the White Sox as they continue to build.
National League MVP
This isn’t even that close; Shohei Ohtani would win the award based on his bat alone, and adding his pitching value just feels like piling on.
Far more interesting is the clear No. 2 vote here, Diamondbacks’ shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, who came into 2025 with 4.8 career fWAR in the majors, and is at 6.9 this season alone as of Monday morning. He’s more than doubled his career home run total as well. In addition, he’s posted career bests in average, OBP, slugging and stolen bases, and he continues to play plus defense at short.
The showing from Arizona’s lineup this year just underscores to me that they were right to go after Corbin Burnes in free agency; if he’s healthy this year, they’re probably ahead of the Padres and making the Dodgers sweat at this point.
Turner went from -12 Runs Above Average on defense over the last two years combined to +11 this year, at age 32, which is certainly unusual. I’m more than willing to believe his defense improved, but that’s a huge jump for a player his age and I’m guessing there’s some noise in there too. (Bryson Stott has played short in Turner’s absence and has looked every bit as good; with those two already in Philadelphia and Aidan Miller probably a half-season away, it’ll be very interesting to see how the Phillies handle their middle infield in the coming years.)
That defensive noise is why I have Sánchez as the actual Phillies MVP this year, not Turner, and not Kyle Schwarber, whose contract-year push has produced a career year but who is still a DH who can’t add any defensive value and loses some on positional value.
National League Cy Young
Cristopher Sánchez is closer to Paul Skenes than how (I think) the public perception has them; as of Monday afternoon, Skenes leads Sánchez in fWAR by 0.4 and bWAR by 0.2. Skenes has the advantage in ERA, about 0.6 runs, and a smaller advantage in FIP, but Sánchez has thrown the equivalent of another start and pitches in a slightly less favorable home park. (PNC Park is the hardest park in which to homer right now, in fact, with a home run park factor of 76 per Statcast.) I bet Skenes wins the award unanimously, even though their values are nearly identical — certainly too close to call based solely on WAR.
Logan Webb is leading the NL in innings again, and is likely to be the only MLB starter to reach 200 innings this year — and he’s even taken his performance up a notch, with the best strikeout rate of his career, although it is (coincidentally, I assume) accompanied by the highest BABIP allowed of his career. He’s so underrated at this point, and probably will be until the Giants get him back to the postseason.
Jesús Luzardo was one of the considerations; he’s fourth in the NL in fWAR, but that metric bails Luzardo out for his career-long issues with runners on base. This year, he’s allowed a .218/.268/.319 line with the bases empty, but a .287/.364/.441 line from the stretch.
(Illustration: Kelsea Petersen / The Athletic; Photos: Brandon Slotter, Justin K. Aller, Daniel Shirey / Getty Images)