Scouting Reed Sheppard, Point Amen, and the Rockets’ in-house point guard options in the wake of Fred VanVleet’s unfortunate ACL tear

So you’ve lost your starting point guard. Sorry about that. Let me just pat you on the back a couple of times. OK, I’ll stop. I know that didn’t help. I get it—you’re reeling. Chips were laid down and chances were taken, and now Fred VanVleet has a torn ACL that could keep him out for all of the 2025-26 season. The Houston Rockets were poised to compete at the very top of the Western Conference, combining their “hit first but also hit second and hit last” mentality from last season with the instant offense of Kevin Durant.

But VanVleet was the bridge between those two ideas, which is why this injury hurts so much on both sides of the ball. He never set the world on fire with pull-up shooting from 3, but he was by far the Rockets’ most reliable spraying passer from the paint in the pick-and-roll, which was one of Houston’s chief avenues for generating good catch-and-shoot looks. When the defense tilted toward VanVleet in those situations, he created a spot-up look 43 percent of the time, and nearly 42 percent of those looks went down.

Losing Steady Freddy means that the level of defense-warping competency in Houston’s half-court offense will drop, which could have a negative ripple effect for every other player on the roster. I mean, the ball didn’t move well last year (the Rockets were at the bottom of the league in nearly every passing stat), and now they’ve lost their foremost half-court drink stirrer.

But it’s not all bad. The good news is that the Rockets’ overall piss-and-vinegar vibe should remain intact and help them grind out solutions in the muck. Even if they don’t have FVV and Dillon Brooks, I can’t see an Ime Udoka–coached team that features fire monsters like Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Alperen Sengun (KD ain’t exactly docile, either) taking a step back in that sense. But if this ACL tear is forcing VanVleet to relinquish the reins, who on the Rockets will be grabbing them? Let’s break down their in-house options.

Reed Sheppard during a game against the Thunder

Martin McGrew/NBAE via Getty ImagesThe Updated Scouting Report on Reed Sheppard

VanVleet’s injury triggered a series of assumptions about Sheppard. For starters, I imagined him cranking “It’s My Time” by Martina McBride in his pickup truck. I’m assuming both that he drives a pickup truck and that he likes Martina McBride, and both of those assumptions feel extremely safe. The news presents an unexpected job opening, and Reed is the implied candidate to step in and straight up assume the mantle. Houston had already made some room in the rotation for him with the Durant deal and now it needs him to shrug off a bumpy rookie year and look more like the player it drafted third after his one thrilling college season.

Heading into the 2024 draft, Reed’s superhero advanced stat profile had members of the draft community fanning themselves like southern belles. For starters, he was one of the more effective floor-spacing guards that we’d seen in some time in college basketball. He shot over 50 percent from 3 in the pick-and-roll, in transition, and on spot-up looks, on credible volume. He didn’t require much of a load-up into his shot at all, which quelled some of the concern about his size (6-foot-2 and 185 pounds). His balance and posture were terrific, and his arms were mechanically compact. His release was quick, it was replicable, and he had access to it at great range.

But, sparing the nights when he got into a rhythm, those outlier efficiencies didn’t translate into his rookie season. Sure, you could use excuses to Jedi hand-wave some of that away by circling back to a word in the previous sentence: rhythm. It’s hard to find it when you don’t really get much of a chance to tap your foot to the tempo along with the rest of your teammates—Reed appeared in just 52 games, and he broke 20 minutes of on-court time on only five occasions, two of which were during the “winding down” phase in April. The counter is that studio space to find said rhythm needs to be earned, especially on teams with real aspirations. And Sheppard’s spot-up efficiency was nearly cut in half after his lone college season, from 1.514 points per possession down to .813.

I don’t have a great answer for why that happened—whether it was a mechanical issue that caused so many front-rim misses from the longer NBA line or whether it was a result of the types of looks the stagnant Rocket offense sent his way. Either way, it was odd.

When he was coming out of his freshman year at Kentucky, my chief concern with the idea of Reed as a primary option was that we hadn’t seen a ton of advantage creation at the point of attack. He’s not particularly fast from a standstill, so his simple side-to-side dribble separation ability had him making a single move without much space to work with. As a result, Reed had a franticness to a lot of his on-ball reps this past year—he was either moving in a linear fashion from A to B or racing to his favorite spots without doing a ton to manipulate or alter how quickly his defender could get to the same place. This would put him in positions where he was more heavily contested, and as a result, his size was an issue. In this sense, he’d be well served by tearing a page out of VanVleet’s book and learning to use contact a bit more so that he can keep his options open once he finds himself on the forest floor looking up at the huge bodies around him.

The other facet of concern was that even though he’s a fantastic hit-ahead passer in transition, Reed’s skill set popped most when he was catching a pass and routing it to an open teammate rather than breaking down the defense and getting off the ball with a live dribble skip to someone on the weak side. This showed up frequently at Kentucky, and I went back to see whether I’d written about it happening at Summer League in 2024—and yep, I did indeed. Very much so.

Lord knows I’ve been wrong before, but a serious shift toward a facilitator role would be an abrupt change from how Reed’s been used in the NBA to this point. I rewatched all of his pick-and-roll reps from the 2024-25 season, and it was hard to find instances when he wasn’t dribbling off a screen and looking to score. His time on the floor was spent either spacing himself absurdly far from the basket or looking for his shot when the ball was in his hands, and justifiably so. But his lack of on-ball playmaking opportunities implies that Houston would be trudging through some potentially messy on-the-job training with him as point guard, and I have a hard time seeing an aspiring contender doing that. My best guess is that we’ll see significantly more Sheppard, but most often in possessions in which he probes for early opportunities to score or, if he can’t, flows into off-ball action that uses his gravity. 

Of course, all of this neglects the defensive side of the ball, where VanVleet was experienced at the point of attack. Because of his size, Sheppard’s weaknesses were always going to be more glaring at the NBA level. Effort and attentiveness are not an issue for Sheppard—he maps the floor extremely well, his timing and anticipatory instincts as a help defender are strong, and although he had the shortest hand-length measurement in his draft class, if he gets in the cookie jar, more often than not, he’ll come away with it. It’s just that his jumpiness when reacting to fakes and his screen awareness and navigation will have to improve. And that’s not to mention a key detail here: Year in and year out, teams mercilessly and relentlessly hunt smaller players, and while Houston is blessed with one of the better perimeter defensive units (presumably still just as good with the addition of Dorian Finney-Smith to offset the loss of Brooks), a player has to be pretty goddamned good offensively to justify significant protection on the other end of the floor.

Amen Thompson drives to the basket against Stephen Curry

Getty ImagesPoint Amen

Amen Thompson probably got more offseason gushing chatter on NBA podcasts than any other player, and deservedly so. He might be the best perimeter athlete to enter the NBA in the past decade, and he’s put his tools to good use as both he and his twin brother, Ausar, have climbed to the top of the league as premier defenders Amen’s development is one of the most intriguing stories in the NBA, and while his role was set to expand regardless, FVV’s injury could be an opportunity for it to explode—but that’s a complicated proposition.

Maybe it’s the smoothness of his movement that dulls any initial sense of danger; Amen is reminiscent of Giannis in transition because of how quickly he’s able to thrust defenders into that “oh shit, oh shit” frantic backpedal. Aesthetically mesmerizing as his gait may be, the reality is that zero moments of calm are in the cards if he’s pulled the ball off the glass, turned his head, and set his hungry eyes on the rim. He decelerates just as emphatically as he accelerates, he’s balletic in how fluidly he changes directions in the lane with his enormous steps, and we all know about the vertical stuff. I love this play in which it seems like defender Kyshawn George has the situation under control—and then you watch Amen’s legs change when he just … decides … that he’s going to pierce the paint. You’re either scrambling to avoid getting caught in a compromised position that’ll lead to a foul or attempting to meet him early on to prevent a straight line to the basket (Amen typically sidesteps defenders in these situations like he’s Inspector Gadget with whatever those long, robotic legs are called). It’s especially entertaining when he triggers these transition scenarios purely as a result of his vicious defense—in sequences when he phantom karate kicks an action in the face so fast that the offensive player is left wondering what the hell just happened. 

That’s all fun, but as we also know, those kinds of transition onslaughts are a feature of a healthy offense, not the sole driving force. What would it look like to organize an offense around Thompson’s skill set?

Amen’s effective pick-and-roll jaunts have one major thing in common with his successful transition reps: Both get him some momentum away from the basket and set him up to win footraces to the rim. More than three-fourths of those pick-and-roll actions were high ball screens, and he was attacking the basket on the majority of those looks.

Thompson is so fast that, in the play above, Yves Missi is already screwed because his hips aren’t open yet, which leads to this conclusion.

The Bart Simpson “say the line” caveat is that Amen is still not a threat from 3. He doesn’t take ’em ’cause he doesn’t make ’em. Kudos for avoiding wasteful and ambitious chucking, but this allows competent defenses to do their work early on in terms of squaring up in front of him and conceding a 3- to 4-foot gap once he’s inside the arc so that he’ll either attempt a shot in the paint in a cloud of colliding cartoon limbs or float for his pull-up jumper. It becomes especially tough for Amen when defenses are willing to put four players below the 3-point line to choke out his passing outlets and swipe at him as extra help.

Put in the right situation, he should improve, get stronger as a finisher, and see the game better, but it’s still a pretty fraught formula for an offense with contending aspirations.

Big picture, there are reasons to believe that plenty of playmaking soap is still in the rag for Thompson. (I don’t think that this is an expression, but go with it.) His havoc on both the defensive and offensive ends of the floor can overshadow the fact that he grew up as a facilitator (always fascinating to watch the roles that twin brothers take on as a result of constantly playing with each other), and he might have developed that understated part of his game because he doesn’t have an obvious mode of half-court scoring beyond catching the ball as a short roller or as a cutter. You’ll occasionally see gap help come in to deter his driving game, which can create simple passing lanes for wing 3s.

And most intriguing for me is the fact that Thompson and Sheppard have shown glimpses of chemistry because of the way their skill sets complement each other—Sheppard’s pull-up shooting pitching to Thompson’s hellacious driving game and setting up more catch-and-shoot looks from 3.

Point Guard by Committee

My ultimate suspicion is that the Rockets will go for more of a Guardians of the Galaxy–style sharing of the (offensive) load than a full-fledged replacement of FVV. The hope is that the limitations of each player who’s contributing to the lift won’t cause Houston’s offense to completely disintegrate in the process. 

Taking it back to Durant for a moment: It seems like a bit of a no-brainer to kick the tires on just how much the first-ballot Hall of Famer—and arguably the greatest scoring forward of all time—is capable of or willing to take on at this stage of his career. I don’t mean to harp on the age part—KD is still amazing—but a player’s usage changes in their mid- to late 30s. Durant will have zero problem serving the purpose that compelled the Rockets to go and get him in the first place—among the 58 players who crossed the 100-possession threshold in isolation last season, Durant was the most efficient of them all—but that was somewhat predicated on VanVleet’s ability to set him up. KD’s rim attempts and free throw attempts have gradually come down in number. He’s still difficult to slow down when he’s ripping to his right and pulling up in the midrange, creating a shot without dribbling or (less frequently) getting to the rim, but that latter aspect could play a role in how much initiating duty he’s able to take on.

And then, of course, there’s Sengun, still only 23 years old, who in my opinion is the most primed to make a facilitator leap and the safest bet here. He’s fresh off an All-Star season and a banger of a performance for Turkey in EuroBasket, where he functioned in this exact role as an offensive hub. I’d go so far as to say that he was Houston’s best manipulative passer even before the VanVleet injury.

Alperen Sengun during a game against the Golden State Warriors

David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

Durant’s addition and more minutes for Sheppard could also upgrade Houston’s spatial threats and have an effect on the types of help that teams are comfortable throwing at Sengun. In single coverage, he’s an effective enough scorer to force defenses to send other looks.

Alpy will certainly need to make some progress on how quickly he sees and anticipates that help. He has had a tendency to stick on the ball for a beat too long—but it’s also fair to note that defenders didn’t always respect Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green, perhaps (just speculating here) mirroring Sengun’s own lack of trust in them at times. His teammates converted only 30.1 percent of their looks from 3 when Sengun passed out of hard double-teams.

If there’s one positive, forecastable difference between this year’s Rockets group and last year’s, it’s that Durant and Sheppard are not only better shooters off the catch but also better decision-makers when attacking a closeout. The intrigue would mount if Udoka leans into looks with Jabari Smith at the 5. I’m not saying that they should shake the snow globe with constant movement every trip down—KD is a bit long in the tooth for that, and Sheppard’s size would create a teeny bit of leeway for recovering defenders—but it could add some variability to the flow of movement within Houston’s half-court looks, which would be a help to Sengun’s own offense and his opportunities to share.

If you’re shouting that Houston should’ve found a way to sign another ball-moving hybrid guard this offseason even if the FVV injury hadn’t happened, I don’t disagree. It’s possible that the Rockets were unable to, and in this crisis scenario, it seems likely that they—at the deadline—might be forced to. (Derrick White would be nectar from the basketball gods and could help them in every imaginable way. Bill and Zach beat me to it.) It’s a loss that hurts, badly, and at a spot where they really, really could not afford it.

This team is still going to be epically gritty. It’ll still be a major pain in the ass to play. It’ll still Moses Malone people into oblivion with their ability to throw it off the board and go get it. The power of the aggregate will determine whether or not they’ll continue climbing.