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Good morning! Finish strong this weekend.

Pennant Chase: Three archetypes of MLB collapse

Mets, Tigers and Astros fans were not expecting to have to pay this much attention to the final weekend of the MLB season. All three teams had once looked like shoo-ins for the postseason, and now they’re not. With two days to play, here are the standings: Fresh off their latest heartbreaking loss, the Tigers are tied with the Guardians in the AL Central, but Cleveland has the tiebreaker. Either team could be fighting with Houston for a wild-card berth. Meanwhile, the Mets are tied with the Reds for the last spot in the NL field.

If New York, Detroit and/or Houston miss the postseason, each would represent a different kind of collapse story. One requires going back nearly a year to understand. Another has been unfolding slowly, then quickly, for a few months. And another just exploded out of nowhere in the middle of this month.

  • Yearlong: Mets. All the way back in December, this team gave Juan Soto the biggest contract in sports history. Soto has delivered, turning in almost an exactly average Soto season, which is to say he’s been one of the handful of best hitters in baseball and worth about six wins in the standings. That’s what makes this so astonishing, though. The Mets’ biggest investment has worked out fine, and this team has still fallen apart after having a 94.1 percent chance to make the playoffs at the start of September (according to FanGraphs). The collapse is about a month old, but the story that makes it so compelling began when Soto put pen to paper. How could this happen? (Rhetorical question: Giving up the fifth-most runs in baseball this month hasn’t helped.)
  • Monthlong: Tigers. Detroit led the AL Central by 14 games on July 8. Its biggest lead over the Guardians in particular was even bigger: 15 1/2 games. But the Tigers are now in danger of losing the division, a postseason berth or both with what would be the largest blown lead of any division or league leader ever. In July, their playoff chances hit 99.8 percent. Even a lousy back half of July only dropped them to around 95 percent. By August 29, they hit a new high of 99.9 percent. The Guardians finally pulled ahead (effectively) by taking two out of three from the Tigers in Cleveland this week. Detroit would lose a tiebreaker to Cleveland, an outcome that became likelier when the Tigers blew a late lead and let the Red Sox walk them off last night to clinch their own spot. (The Guardians lost to the Rangers.)
  • Weeklong: Astros. Houston had a 93.7 percent playoff chance on Sept. 17. Exactly one week later, it was 44.1 percent. Right now, the Astros’ odds of making the postseason are just 16 percent. The Mariners’ scalding finish vaulted them past Houston to claim the AL West, and Houston’s usually productive offense has gone into the tank. Those two productive weeks by Yordan Alvarez were nice, before he went back to the injured list, where he had spent several months. Jeremy Peña, the star of their season, is banged up now, too. The Astros have been baseball’s most consistent winners next to the Dodgers for a decade, but they’ve looked out of their depth coming down the stretch.

It is a good bet that someone from this trio will, in fact, miss the postseason. This will be a weekend of enormous pain for someone and even bigger schadenfreude for others.

I asked Levi Weaver, author of the excellent and free Windup newsletter: If it happened, which of these collapses would be most disgraceful? 

💬 The Tigers’ collapse is (literally, historically) unprecedented, but the Mets have the budget of a medium-sized caliphate. If the word is “disgraceful,” it’s the Mets by a thoroughly singed hair,just because of preseason expectations.

Still on tap: The Mets play their last two games in Miami, the Tigers are in Boston and the Astros are at the Angels. Who said Mike Trout would never play in meaningful games in Anaheim in September?

News to Know

Europe in control early at the Ryder Cup

The talk of the town at Bethpage Black all week was about how dominant home teams have been at the Ryder Cup. And while this thing is far from over, Team Europe looks primed to dispel that trend after taking a commanding 5 1/2 to 2 1/2 lead over Team USA on Day 1. The strength of this European squad was never in doubt, but no one could have predicted the somewhat surreal struggles of Scottie Scheffler.

Today’s foursomes have likely already begun by the time you’re reading this. Follow along live all day here.

Gunman in NFL HQ shooting diagnosed with CTE

The gunman involved in a deadly July shooting at a building where the NFL headquarters are located had “low-stage CTE,” a medical examiner said yesterday. Shane Tamura, a 27-year-old former high school football player, was reportedly focused on the league when he entered the building and killed four people before shooting himself. More details here.

More news:

  • WNBA playoffs: The Aces are one game away from eliminating a hobbled Fever squad, while the title-favorite Lynx are officially on the ropes, down 2-1 to the Mercury and now likely without superstar Napheesa Collier.

  • Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov could miss the entire season after suffering a knee injury in practice this week. A brutal blow for the reigning champs.

  • Patriots defensive coordinator Terrell Williams, who has been away from the team in recent weeks, was diagnosed with prostate cancer. More here.

  • Ahead of the first-regular season NFL game in Ireland this weekend, the league announced it will play at least three games in Rio de Janeiro, continuing its attempt at a global takeover.

  • Not your everyday NIL deal: The 58-year-old defensive lineman aiming to become the oldest player in a college football game since 2009 signed an NIL deal with Aspercreme, a pain relief product. Pretty funny.

  • Virginia upset No. 8 Florida State on the gridiron late last night in a double-overtime thriller. This might have been the fastest field storming of all time. Someone check if the Florida State receiver made it out alive:

Watch Guide

Here’s the full stacked CFB schedule for the day. A few highlights:

📺 CFB: No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas 

12 p.m. ET on ABC 

The Irish would be a catastrophic 1-3 with a loss, while Arkansas doesn’t appear to be that far away from firing coach Sam Pittman. Somehow, this is the first matchup ever between these programs.

📺 CFB: No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss 

3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN 

Contrary to many of our expectations, LSU’s defense lifted the Tigers to a 4-0 start. The offense has generated three touchdowns in two games against Power 4 opponents. My guess is the Tigers will need at least another three in this game.

đź“ş CFB: No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State

7:30 p.m. ET on NBC 

A proper heavyweight fight between unbeatens. The Nittany Lions have not won a game like this — big spot against a marquee Big Ten opponent having a good season — since 2016 against Ohio State. It feels like this should be the time, doesn’t it?

Get tickets to games like these here.

Pulse Picks

Cal Raleigh or Aaron Judge? Jayson Stark makes his pick for AL MVP in his full awards ballot.

Seattle hot dogs 🌭 While Chicago-style is my ideal hot dog, Seattle dogs also have a permanent spot in my heart. What’s a Seattle dog? Grilled hot dog, grilled onion and cream cheese. You can add jalapeños or mustard, but the grilled onions and cream cheese are non-negotiable. It sounds funny, but it’s heavenly — especially if you’re getting one on the street before a Mariners game or trying to sober up after a night out on Pike Street. Thankfully, they’re equally delicious made at home. — Alex Iniguez

Test your knowledge of the week’s sports news with our quiz.

Absolute homer take but also a great story from Brian Hamilton, who spent 24 hours trailing around the Weeks family in Baton Rouge. Geaux Tigers. — Chris Branch

While Road House is the undisputed So Bad It’s Good belt-holder, hell yes let’s celebrate Face/Off. — Chris Sprow

One of the Clippers’ defenses in the Kawhi Leonard scandal has been that “no-show jobs” like Leonard’s deal with Aspiration are not unusual in the NBA. Our NBA staff reached out to 50 current or former jersey sponsors to test that theory.

I put my head together with two of our golf experts (Gabby Herzig and Brody Miller) to list the best and worst looks at the Ryder Cup this week. Give us your picks in the survey at the bottom: Team USA vs. Team Europe fashion. — Hannah Vanbiber

🎧 A few of our favorite podcasts from this week for your weekend listening pleasure:

  • “Pablo Torre Finds Out” … why there isn’t tickling in MMA. A truly hilarious episode. Watch on YouTube.
  • “No Offseason” dove into Sandy Brondello’s unexpected departure from the New York Liberty and Noelle Quinn’s exit from the Seattle Storm. Watch here.
  • Could the World Cup be on the verge of expanding again? “The Athletic FC” podcast looked at FIFA’s hopes to do just that. Listen.

Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Our story on the fan who caught Cal Raleigh’s 60th home run.

Most-read on the website yesterday: Our reporting on the scene of a depressing day for Team USA at the Ryder Cup.

Ticketing links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Top photo: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)