18 teams now have higher odds to make the College Football Playoff than Penn State, and one of them is Vanderbilt.
Yeah, you read that right.
Vanderbilt, the team James Franklin coached before leaving for Penn State 11 years ago, has a nearly 17% > chance to make the Playoff than Penn State per ESPN’s Football Power Index.
To clarify, this has a lot to do with the schedule in addition to the overall quality of the program.
Five of Vandy’s last seven games are against ranked opponents, compared to Penn State having two of its last eight scheduled opponents be ranked. This means that Vanderbilt has more chances for resume building wins, where as if Penn State doesn’t beat either No. 1 Ohio State or No. 8 Indiana, they’re probably cooked.
Vanderbilt is also undefeated, whereas Penn State is no more after Saturday’s double-overtime loss to now-No. 2 Oregon.
HOW FPI WORKS
Here is how ESPN’s FPI ratings work.
By definition, FPI is a “predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.”
Other teams ahead of Penn State in Playoff probability include Beau Pribula’s Missouri Tigers, Memphis, BYU and Texas Tech.
FRANKLIN AT VANDY
January 04, 2014: Vanderbilt head coach James Franklin after the 2014 BBVA Compass Bowl between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Houston Cougars. Vanderbilt defeated Houston by the score of 41-24 at Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama.
Let’s reminisce about what Franklin accomplished at Vanderbilt, because it sure was a lot. In just three seasons, Franklin took a program that had been a joke and turned it into a contender. Vandy made one bowl game in the previous 26 seasons before Franklin took over.
The program went bowling in all three of Franklin’s years, going 9-4 in the last two.
This caught the attention of Penn State, which hired him in January 2014.
No. 7 Penn State takes on UCLA in Pasadena at 3:30 ET Saturday on CBS.