2h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 4:30amReserve Bank keeps interest rates steady in September

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold at 3.6 per cent in September, having cut them at its previous meeting in August.

10m agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 7:14am

That’s all for rates day

That’s a wrap on our blog for today, thank you for joining us through what was a fairly busy day with the Seven West merger news, Optus meeting and, of course, the RBA keeping interest rates on hold.

We’ll be back with you bright and early tomorrow.

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In the meantime, you can get a full wrap on the rates decision and Michele Bullock’s comments here:

19m agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 7:05am

Best and worst performing stocks

For our loyal markets readers, here’s a quick wrap of how the biggest moving stocks of the session fared.

The best performers were:

  • IDP Education +16.1%
  • DroneShield +5.9%
  • Pilbara Minerals +4.1%
  • Capstone Copper +3.9%
  • Bellevue Gold +3.2%

And the worst:

  • Iperionx -5.3%
  • Beach Energy -3.4%
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals -3.3%
  • Karoon Energy -3.2%
  • WiseTech Global -3%

32m agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 6:52am

Rate cutting cycle not over: Deloitte Access Economics

Today’s decision to keep rates on hold does not mean the rate-cutting cycle is over, says Pradeep Philip, head of Deloitte Access Economics.

“To be clear, the economy is not overheating as some suggest to then argue that the RBA should delay or abandon rate cuts,” he argues.

“In fact, the opposite is true. The reality is that with global growth a worry, Australia needs to get its fundamentals for growth right – more business investment, better risk appetite, more innovation.”

Mr Philip says the September GDP figures, which will be released shortly before the RBA’s December meeting, should clear the way for a 0.25 percentage point cut that month.

“A further 50 basis points of rate cuts are expected in 2026, lowering the cash rate to 2.85 per cent,” he forecasts.

37m agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 6:47am

RBA’s interest rate hold concerns retailers ahead of peak retail season

Retailers have expressed concern about the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the cash rate at 3.6%, which is expected to suppress spending during the most important retail sales period of the year.

The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and the National Retail Association (NRA) said a pre-Christmas rate cut would encourage much-needed discretionary spending during the peak sales period.

ARA CEO Chris Rodwell said a rate cut would have given a great boost to retailers.

“While spending has started to lift, we are not yet at the level where retailers feel assured of a clear shift in the cycle.

“Many discretionary retailers make up to two-thirds of their profits during peak season and use this important period to replenish cash reserves.”

Mr Rodwell said the past couple of years had been challenging, particularly for small businesses.

“Retailers are also facing continued cost pressures from spiking rents, wage growth, higher energy, insurance, and supply chain challenges – alongside an intensifying wave of retail crime.

“Global competition is significant, with ultra-low-cost digital retailers capturing a sizeable share of local spending without the same obligations as domestic businesses.

“With one-in-ten Australians employed in retail, our $430 billion sector is crucial to the national economy.”

42m agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 6:42am

Where might the cash rate end up?

Economists have been analysing today’s Reserve Bank decision and reflecting on future forecasts.

NAB’s Sally Auld points to the board’s statement focusing on private demand recovering more ‘rapidly than expected’ as well as inflation in September possibly landing higher than expected.

“Looking ahead, spending and labour market data – alongside the full quarterly CPI release – will be highly consequential for the policy outlook. For now, we expect the RBA to hold through to May 2026, at which point we expect a final 25bp reduction in the cash rate,” she wrote in an analyst note.

However, economists at ANZ are still pointing to a possible rate cut in November.

“Since we moved to a 3.35% ‘terminal’ cash rate in April, our confidence that this represents the end point for this cycle remains higher than our conviction on the exact timing,” wrote Adam Boyton.

“Absent a ‘shock’, the tone of today’s post-meeting statement also suggests that we are quite close to the end of the easing cycle.”

49m agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 6:35am

First ‘give us a round number’ comment of the day

When will the RBA drop rates by 0.1%? Please, the “strange” numbers have been annoying me more than they should for years!

– Will

It’s a pandemic era-hangover that continues to haunt our readers.

But with not much talk of a rate cut today, Will you win first comment of the day about whether the RBA will cut by 0.1 percentage points to take us back to the traditional 0.25 increments.

52m agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 6:32amOptus appoints consultant to oversee network, backs Rue as CEO

Optus chairman John Arthur has released a statement following his meeting today with Communications Minister Anika Wells, Singtel Group chief executive Yuen Kuan Moon and Optus CEO Stephen Rue, called in the wake of the network’s two Triple Zero outages this month.

Mr Arthur has announced that on behalf of Optus he has appointed global consulting firm Kearney to “begin immediate oversight, quality assurance and verification as Optus uplifts its mobile network management, processes and services consistent with required standards”.

And he says the Optus board is confident CEO Stephen Rue and the management team, “supported by the best external expertise, will undertake the critical reforms to continue to transform the business, and strengthen the Optus mobile network, restoring the confidence and trust of the Australian public”.

56m agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 6:28amASX closes lower, Aussie dollar at 66 US cents as RBA holds rates

The local share market has ended the session in the red, with the ASX 200 losing 0.2% and the Australian dollar rising, currently at 66 US cents.

That follows the Reserve Bank’s (largely expected) decision to keep interest rates on hold in September.

Market pricing for further interest rate cuts this year has pared back, with Bloomberg data putting the chance of a November cut around 30%, down from a 50-50 chance before this afternoon’s decision.

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 6:12amAustralia’s AAA ratings confirmed

Global ratings agency, S&P has affirmed Australia’s AAA long-term sovereign credit rating.

“We expect the general government deficit to steady at 1.5-2% of GDP over the next few years, as commodity prices normalise from highs over 2023-2024,” the statement reads.

“Net general government debt is lower than that of most advanced-economy peers and will likely remain below 30% of GDP.”

It considers Australia’s strengths to be strong institutional settings, a wealthy and diversified economy and flexibility when it comes to monetary policy.

“These strengths have ensured the country’s economic resilience through the pandemic and prior crises, despite volatile terms of trade,” it reads.

In April, S&P warned Australia’s prized credit ranking was at risk, with debt-funded election spending pushing up government outlays.

And while the ratings agency says it could lower the ratings in future if there “is significant slippage in expenditure restraint at the federal or state level”, it believes the outlook is stable and expects the deficit and net debt to remain ‘modest’ over the next two years.

Only a handful of countries have AAA ratings, including Canada, Luxembourg and Switzerland.

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 6:07am

Where’s the bottom of this easing cycle?

Has anyone considered that 3.6% may be the bottom of this cycle and the next move, even if some time away, may actually be up?

– Nathan

Fair question, Nathan, and pretty much the question on everyone’s minds.

According to Capital Economics, market pricing puts the end point of this easing cycle as a cash rate around 3.3%.

For its part, Capital Economics is forecasting the RBA to eventually cut rates to 3.1%.

“Overall, today’s statement casts some doubt as to whether the Bank will cut rates by 25bp at its next meeting in November, as we currently expect,” wrote senior economist Abhijit Surya.

“Nevertheless, we still think there’s a strong case for the Bank to resume policy easing before long.

“After all, despite the nascent rebound in household consumption, the economy is hardly firing on all cylinders.

“And the longer the Bank leaves rates in restrictive territory, the greater the risk of the ongoing recovery fizzling out and underlying inflation undershooting the mid-point of the 2-3% target in the medium term.”

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 6:06am

And that’s a wrap on Michele Bullock

The governor has wrapped up her press conference in Sydney.

Here are some snaps from ABC camera operator Daniel Irvine at the press conference:

Michele Bullock (ABC News: Daniel Irvine)Michele Bullock (ABC News: Daniel Irvine)Michele Bullock (ABC News: Daniel Irvine)

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 5:57am

RBA governor not confident of progress on housing supply in next few years

Asked if she’s confident government policies will help lift housing supply, Ms Bullock says it could take several years.

“I’ve said a number of times before, the problem in the housing market is structural deficit of supply.

“That is the problem and governments now get that and you are seeing some action on that but it’s going to be slow to work its way through…

“It’s going to take time… I’m not confident it’s going to have any impact in the next two years.

“So the bottom line is that all I can do is make sure I keep inflation low and stable, and I keep employment as strong as possible, because that gives people best opportunities to get jobs and be able to possibly get into the market.”

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 5:55amAustralia in difficult position with property market: Bullock

ABC business correspondent David Taylor has asked the governor about her view on the property market, asking what she would say to a family that is struggling to buy a home.

“As an individual and as a citizen, I think it’s we’re in a very difficult position with the property market, and I don’t actually think that most reasonable people think this is a good outcome,” Ms Bullock says.

“Having said that, there’s nothing that I can do personally about it.

“We don’t target housing prices — It’s true that part of the transmission mechanism for monetary policy is through the housing market…

“Can we impact housing prices or should we impact housing prices? No, we have to focus on our mandate, which is inflation.”

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 5:46am

Not going to predict what interest rate is going to be: Bullock

A slew of questions trying to get to the million dollar question — are we getting more interest rate cuts this year?

Ms Bullock is asked about economists paring back their forecasts and notes that “we’re looking at the same data” but declines to pass judgement on their calls.

Another question comes through and Ms Bullock says, “Another request for forward guidance!”

“I’m not going to predict what the interest rate is going to be in the next three to six months.”

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 5:40am

We don’t want to see deflation: Bullock

In her opening remarkets, Ms Bullock noted “the price level isn’t coming back down” — essentially highlighting that inflation refers to the rate of price increases, and that inflation easing means prices are rising more slowly, not that prices actually coming down (that would be deflation as opposed to disinflation).

She was then asked why the RBA has been emphasising this distinction recently.

“Why are you trying to sell this message?” a reporter asks.

“I’m not trying to sell anything,” the governor says.

“We don’t want to see deflation. Deflation is not good for businesses.

“It’s not good for making investment decisions, that’s why low and stable inflation is best…

“But I just want people to understand that when we’re lowering inflation, that doesn’t mean we are lowering the price level.

“We’re lowering the rate at which prices are increasing.”

Some economics 101 from the governor herself.

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 5:35amDomestic data a little stronger than expected: Bullock

Ms Bullock says “on balance” the domestic economic data has been in line or a little stronger than the RBA’s forecasts since its August interest rate cut.

“Inflation remains within the target range, but recent data indicate there could be a bit more upward pressure than we thought,” she says.

She describes the risks to the economy as “broadly balanced” and says by its November meeting, the board will have more labour market and inflation data for the September quarter.

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 5:31amMichele Bullock speaking in Sydney

The Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock is now up, speaking after the RBA’s on hold decision.

She says the three interest rate cuts so far this year are starting to have an impact and notes monetary policy operates with a lag.

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 5:28am

‘My heart goes out to them’: Shadow Treasurer

Ted O’Brien feels for Aussie mortgage holders today in the wake of the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold interest rates at 3.6%.

“Right across the country, the average mortgage holder will be paying $1,800 more in interest payments every single month compared to when the Coalition was in government. That will continue to be the case.

“My heart goes out to not only to them today, but my heart also goes out to all of those young Australians who are hoping to getinto the property market.

“The higher these interest rates are, the tougher it’s going to be for younger Australians who want to chase that Australian dream of owning their own home.”

The Deputy Liberal leader puts today’s decision squarely on the government, arguing September’s higher-than-expected inflation data is the result of the Albanese government’s “spending spree”.

“I am fearful that hopes of further rate cuts are evaporating fast, with the market estimating perhaps only more one more rate cut left.”

1h agoTue 30 Sep 2025 at 5:25am’Appropriate to remain cautious’, says on hold RBA

Back to the RBA’s statement and taking a look at the all-important final paragraphs, which indicate it’s taking a wait-and-see approach as the three interest rate cuts so far this year filter through the economy.

“With signs that private demand is recovering, indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas and labour market conditions overall remaining stable, the board decided that it was appropriate to maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting,” it reads.

“Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and this seems to be having some impact, but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions.

It said it had judged it was “appropriate to remain cautious” and adjust its view as the data evolves.

“The Board remains alert to the heightened level of uncertainty about the outlook. It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia.”