The San Diego Padres face a do-or-die Game 2 after losing Game 1 of their Wild Card series with the Chicago Cubs 3-1 on Tuesday. San Diego now turns to Dylan Cease to keep the team alive for a potential Game 3, while Chicago surprised many onlookers by announcing that reliever Andrew Kittredge would serve as an opener on Wednesday. First pitch for Game 2 is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET, and the game will be shown nationally on ABC. 

If you’re looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Cubs vs. Padres odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Cease (8-12, 4.55 ERA) finished the regular season sixth in strikeouts with 215 but saw his home runs per nine innings spike to 1.13, the highest it’s been in a full season of work. A worrying 11.9% of his fly balls went over the wall. Wrigley Field hasn’t been quite as much of a launching pad in recent years, but it can still get hitter-friendly in a hurry if the wind is blowing out. 

Meanwhile, this was projected to be Shota Imanaga’s day to start for the Cubs, but manager Craig Counsell has opted to open with Kittredge (3.40) instead. Imanaga may yet factor into the game in some way, perhaps as a bulk arm behind Kittredge, but it’s admittedly peculiar to see Counsell take this route. Imanaga’s 4.70 ERA in the second half may have something to do with it.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Cease is set at over/under 6.5 strikeouts for Wednesday, with the Over priced +126 and the Under at -172. The model rates the Over 4.5 stars out of 5, as it projects Cease to notch 6.9 strikeouts. 

Michael Busch (+450) is the favorite to hit a home run at FanDuel. He’s followed by Fernando Tatis Jr. (+460), Manny Machado (+480), Kyle Tucker (+560), Seiya Suzuki (+560), Ian Happ (+600), Jackson Merrill (+600), Pete Crow-Armstrong (+680) and Gavin Sheets (+750).

Check out the model’s best bets for Padres vs. Cubs Game 2 on Wednesday. 

SAN DIEGO PADRES at CHICAGO CUBS | 10/1 | 3:00 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Cubs -118
Chicago wins in 53% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-208)
Chicago covers in 70% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 6.5 (-122)
The Over hits in 74% of simulations

Projected score: Cubs 4.6, Padres 4.5