I'm Already Worried About Star Wars' Return to the Big Screen

The first trailer for The Mandalorian and Grogu has been released, with the upcoming continuation of the Star Wars spinoff show being the first film in the franchise to hit the big screen in over half a decade. Due to this, its importance goes far beyond the show it’s derived from. Unfortunately, the required grand comeback to the cinemas might not be exactly what’s being advertised by the movie’s trailer.

Fans have noted that the underwhelming first look at The Mandalorian and Grogu isn’t especially cinematic, looking more like an extended episode of the show than anything else. That’s combined with the fact that both title characters and the series they came from aren’t nearly as popular as they once were. This could have a major impact on the movie’s box office haul, in doing so setting the course for the future of Star Wars.

The Mandalorian and Grogu Looks Perfect for Disney+ – and That’s a Problem

The Mandalorian and Grogu has been spoken about for years at this point, but fans just got their first look at the film. The first trailer for The Mandalorian and Grogu was light in terms of actual story direction, leaving a lot up in the air in terms of what it will be about. This could be chalked up to it merely being a teaser, and it does directly contrast with the complaint of modern trailers showing too much of the movie. Sadly, a lengthier and more in-depth trailer might have been what was necessary, as it could have helped generate more buzz and attention for the upcoming film. So far, there’s a lot more negativity than expected, and that’s amid a deafeningly loud lack of interest. One big problem is the scope and cinematography, which are especially lacking for such a big screen upgrade.

The Mandalorian and Grogu looks like another episode of the show, more so than a big-budget Star Wars movie, and this instantly detracts interest for several reasons. For one, it really seems as if it’s something that could have been put on Disney+, and this might even be seen as a reversal of a previous problem with the streaming service. Some felt that the focus on having content for Disney+ was cutting off the box office hauls of certain Disney projects at the knees. Now, this has been overturned, with projects such as Moana 2 being changed from Disney+ shows to theatrical movies. The same might have happened with The Mandalorian Season 4, but there’s not enough of a visual upgrade to justify seeing it on the big screen. It certainly isn’t befitting the grand return of Star Wars in theaters, and bringing the franchise back by way of a spinoff was especially head-scratching.

The Best Time to Release the Mandalorian Movie Has Come and Gone

The Mandalorian points a gun at Baby Yoda in The Mandalorian.Image via Disney

The Mandalorian was the first of the Disney+ Star Wars spinoff shows, and its early success helped put the Disney+ service on the map. This was helped by the presence of the character now named Grogu, who, at the time, was simply called either The Child or Baby Yoda due to being the same species as Jedi Masters Yoda and Yaddle. Ironically, even Disney didn’t foresee how popular this character would become, with the holiday season being flooded with several unofficial “Baby Yoda” toys and merchandise, and almost nothing from Disney and Lucasfilm. This mistake was definitely avoided for the show’s next season, and Grogu merchandise became a particularly hot commodity. Of course, all fads must come to an end, and by the time that the show’s third season was released, Grogu toys were more commonly seen at bargain stores than being paraded and celebrated by kids.

This speaks to another issue that the movie will have to deal with. The third season of The Mandalorian came out in 2023, and the second season was honestly the last time that the series was on the pulse of the public pop culture consciousness. Season 3 saw a notable downturn in viewership, and it was also seen as a major step down in quality. It didn’t help that the reunion of Din Djarin and Grogu was especially forced, as their story together had already come to a logical end. The result was a show that had an inorganic third season, and the movie will only exacerbate these issues. If anything, the only time that a movie of this nature might have worked was right after the second season.

This would have been when the show was still massively popular, and after the appearance of the iconic Luke Skywalker. Most importantly, it would have been before the release of another spinoff TV show, the now-infamous miniseries The Book of Boba Fett. While it spun out of the events set up in The Mandalorian’s second season and focused on a fan-favorite bounty hunter, The Book of Boba Fett is largely seen as easily the worst Star Wars show. Releasing a version of The Mandalorian and Grogu before this show would have been much better for the brand, and it would have had the best chance at really succeeding at the box office. Now, the film is coming out at a time when the once venerable sci-fi brand is largely irrelevant to most and somewhat disliked by even its most hardcore fans. Now, the extent of this irrelevance will be tested, and it could have major ramifications on where things go for the galaxy far, far away.

The Mandalorian and Grogu Could Make or Break Star Wars

Supposedly, The Mandalorian and Grogu has a production budget of around $166 million USD, though this hasn’t been confirmed by Disney. If this is true, it’s definitely the cheapest Disney Star Wars movie, which would certainly be a plus. At this rate, it would need to make more than $415 million USD at the global box office to truly become profitable, and this shouldn’t be too hard a feat if it’s actually good. To be fair, however, the budget may be much higher than this, and if it is, that might spell doom for the movie. Given the seeming lack of excitement surrounding it, it’s very likely that, unless it has stellar reviews, The Mandalorian and Grogu could have a fairly tepid response at the box office. This has been the case for several movies in the past few years, regardless of quality, and brand indifference is actually one of the biggest reasons for this.

For instance, 2024 saw the release of Paramount’s animated film Transformers One, which was set entirely on Cybertron and showcased the origins of the Transformers mythology. Unfortunately, due to being geared more toward kids and the brand apathy that years of bad Michael Bay movies had engendered, the well-received film was a complete dud at the box office. The same could also be said of 2023’s otherwise decently reviewed Blue Beetle, with this fun film being a victim of lame duck status in the dying and controversial DC Extended Universe. A more recent example of this phenomenon can be seen in the Mission: Impossible movie series, which ended on a tepid note at the box office, even with good reviews. Once audiences are over a certain brand or franchise, there’s little that can be done to bring them back, especially when so many other decisions surrounding a movie are death knells in their own right.

This may or may not happen with The Mandalorian movie, but it’s undeniable that Star Wars is a lot less healthy as a brand than it was just a few years ago. One year after this film, Lucasfilm and Disney will release Star Wars: Starfighter, another spinoff that’s actually even more “original.” Featuring no major ties to classic characters, it will be a real test of the franchise’s strength and ability to do new things beyond the saga of the Skywalker family. If The Mandalorian and Grogu flop but Starfighter is a hit, similarly, new ideas could become the face of Star Wars. Likewise, if Mandalorian is successful but Starfighter fails, making more movie tie-ins to the Disney+ shows could be on the horizon. If neither of these films does the business or is received how Disney wishes them to be, however, it could lead to another lull for Star Wars on the big screen, and perhaps even the small one. That’s hopefully not going to be the case, but for now, it’s hard to get excited about the next Star Wars movie, which itself is just a TV show by any other name.