By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn
Dallas’ contention window is wide open; we know that much. That’s crystal-clear from the strength and age of the team’s core, and the past three years of getting close. Only the Panthers have also been to three straight conference finals.
Of course, the Panthers also made the Stanley Cup Final each time, winning twice — something that continues to elude this Stars team. Close, but not close enough.
Is this the year that changes, or have the Stars hit a glass ceiling?
The projection
After three straight conference final losses, everyone’s favorite Western Conference darlings are at an impasse. Do the Stars have what it takes to get over the hump?
This season’s forecast puts the Stars right in the mix again, but they start on the outside of the top five. In the West, Colorado, Edmonton and Vegas all stand in Dallas’ way to the top. The Stars aren’t far off and the margins are slim, but they start at the bottom of the pecking order.
Some cap casualties are the cause of that. So too is the departure of Pete DeBoer in favor of the offensively worrisome Glen Gulutzan. The Stars will be different, but whether or not it will be a good different is the question.
While it’s likely the Stars will make the playoffs, questions persist about whether this group can reach the promised land.
The big question
Which version of Mikko Rantanen are the Stars going to get over an 82-game season?
It’d be unfair to say that Rantanen’s remarkable postseason performance was necessary. He’s a terrific player. We know this. A first-period, Game 7 hat trick against his former team didn’t change that, just like a zero-goal Game 7 shouldn’t have pushed the pendulum in the other direction.
A moment like that, though, combined with the 22 total points he racked up along the way and some substantive five-on-five play, is still a nice reminder of what Rantanen can do at the top of his register — and what the Stars are paying him $96 million over eight years to provide. We hadn’t quite seen him hit that level, post-Colorado. Before the first of two midseason trades, Rantanen was humming along to a 107-point pace and turning in the superstar-caliber all-situations play we’d come to expect.
In Carolina, after a deal that shocked the NHL at large, his underlying numbers were strong — he averaged more expected goals/60 at five-on-five (1.47) than he had in Colorado, and the Hurricanes as a team held an expected goal share of more than 62 percent with him on the ice. He couldn’t turn that into production, though, scoring just one five-on-five goal in 13 games. Less quantifiably, the fit didn’t seem like a good one. After a few weeks, it was over.
With the Stars, the script flipped. Rantanen produced at a better clip (about three points per 60, thanks mainly to his work on the power play). Dallas outscored its opponents fairly dramatically with him on the ice at five-on-five, too (13-7) — but they decisively lost the territorial battle, with expected goal and shot shares stuck in the mid-40s. Individually, he was still contributing plenty to scoring-chance totals, but he was shooting the puck notably less (5.8 shots per 60, down from 7.3 with Carolina and 9.3 with the Avalanche).
In the postseason, the Stars’ five-on-five numbers with him on the ice improved a bit, and he scored enough overall to make the point moot. It’d be short-sighted and pedantic to say anything else. It’s still accurate to note, though, that Dallas has yet to see Rantanen at his absolute best.
Colorado got that for a long time, particularly when he was on the ice with Nathan MacKinnon. In their final three seasons together, they shared more than 2,500 minutes at five-on-five. Those minutes were, of course, outstanding; with them together, Colorado outscored opponents 159-108, a goal share of nearly 60 percent. In Rantanen’s 782:22 away from MacKinnon, that number dipped to about 43 percent. That holds true for virtually every other statistical category, too; expected goal share went from 55 percent to 42, and scoring chances from 59 percent to 45. MacKinnon, meanwhile, basically held steady on his own.
There’s no shame in clocking a bit behind MacKinnon; save a few, that’s true for every player in the league. There’s also no doubt that Rantanen has the talent and versatility to succeed with lesser linemates. The question, though, is how that’ll look with the Stars. He’s expected to once again play on a line with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. The former is a solid play-maker as a 1C but not on MacKinnon’s level, and the latter looked a bit too much like a one-dimensional shooter last season. Does that mean Rantanen should lean into his own playmaking ability a bit further? Maybe. Is it unfair to draw any real conclusions based on a handful of games together? Certainly.
There’s still some meat on the bone in terms of Rantanen’s overall performance, though. Dallas made a reasonable, long-term bet on it.
The wildcard
Can Dallas’ offense still thrive under Glen Gulutzan?
When Gulutzan first coached the Stars, from 2011-13, the franchise was in a decidedly different state of existence. It was in the middle of an ownership transition, for one, and general manager Jim Nill only took over in April 2013, shortly after Gulutzan had gone 22-22-4 in a 48-game season.
Nill opted for a change — and now, five coaches later, he opted for another, hiring Gulutzan away from the Oilers, where he’d overseen the all-world power play as well as the forward group. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl signed off on his work. On some level, that might be good enough; before Gulutzan came around, Edmonton’s power play was somehow among the league’s worst. By 2022-23, it was converting at a 32.4 percent rate and scoring a startling 13.25 goals per 60 minutes of play.
For the Stars, watch the division of labor between Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley, both top-unit caliber in their own ways. The early plan is to play Harley on the first unit with Rantanen, Hintz, Robertson and Wyatt Johnston.
More broadly, it’ll be interesting to see how Gulutzan approaches leading a win-now team. Expectations for the Stars in his first stint were minimal, and he lasted two seasons. With Calgary, in 2016-17, he took over a team capable of making the playoffs but probably not winning a Stanley Cup. There, he also lasted two seasons. Another short-time stint would be bad news for all involved.
The strengths
The Stars already had a deep forward group before adding Rantanen, who is now the cherry on top of a stacked offense.
With Rantanen in the fold, Robertson is a luxury as a No. 2 forward, boasting a plus-13.4 Net Rating; the league average for that slot is closer to plus-9.0.
Robertson’s 2024-25 got off to an uncharacteristically slow start. But after getting snubbed from Team USA’s 4 Nations roster in December, his offense took off. Whether it was just a spite-fueled tear or a natural rebound, it added up to 30 goals and 66 points over the next 56 games. He backed that up with strong five-on-five play, with a 53.5 percent xG rate and 49-36 scoring advantage.
The only curveball to worry about with Robertson is his next contract, since he will be a restricted free agent next summer.
Wyatt Johnston, on the other hand, is just starting his new deal — a five-year extension worth $8.4 million a year, on average. Now he just has to live up to it.
Johnston didn’t build on his breakout season enough last year. His scoring rate went down, along with his shot volume. And the Stars were less dominant in his five-on-five minutes, primarily due to defensive dips. There were, however, some positive trends. Johnston’s high-danger passing was on the rise, which could be really complementary in the top six.
The ceiling is there for Johnston; a plus-10.3 Net Rating is excellent for a team’s best forward. A plus-10.2 for Roope Hintz, who now slots in as the Stars’ No. 4, is even better. It gives the Stars four top-line caliber players to lead the way.
Like Johnston, Hintz also needs to bounce back. The ability is there — just two years ago, he excelled in all three zones, in all situations — he needs to channel that level more this year. With some stability in the top six, after injuries and trades shook things up this year, he should be in a better position to succeed.
The return of Matt Duchene, combined with a healthy Tyler Seguin, should help the Stars continue to generate offense in waves.
In their five-on-five minutes last year, before Seguin was sidelined with injury, the two dominated in their minutes together with a 60.5 percent xG rate and 16-7 goal advantage. They just have to navigate life without Mason Marchment. As important as his role was, Seguin may be the most important piece; without him, Duchene and Marchment’s xG (and actual scoring) rate dropped to 46 percent.
The Marchment subtraction opens up some ice time for Mavrik Bourque. He only put up 25 points in 73 games last year, but his usage was pretty minimal in the bottom six. Just two years ago, he was the AHL’s scoring leader with 77 points in 71 games, so the potential for a glow-up is there.
The Stars’ forward group ranks fifth in the league with a plus-18.3 Offensive Rating. The defense has the same ranking, thanks to Heiskanen and Harley; they combine for a plus-18.5 Offensive Rating, which negates four negatives below them.
“It’s hard to find someone who is as dominant in both directions as he is,” one executive said of Heiskanen.
His scoring isn’t eye-catching, but his fingerprints are generally all over the Stars’ success. He has a ton of puck touches in his own end; he retrieves a lot of pucks and helps transition his team up the ice. Heiskanen is the stabilizing force of the Stars’ blue line, and that became incredibly clear when the team had to navigate half a season without him.
Heiskanen’s absence, however, did allow Harley to shine more on his own.
“What a hockey player,” one coach said. “Some of that is clearly skating, but it’s also reading what’s going on and his involvement in all three zones.”
While the insiders weren’t ready to move Harley into the Player Tiers Franchise territory just yet, he comfortably slid into the top-15 after last season, thanks to his elite offense. His development gives Dallas two engines from the blue line to rely on.
Along with those dynamic defensemen, Esa Lindell’s shutdown strengths kick the Stars’ Defensive Rating to plus-6.0, the fourth best in the league.
What makes the Stars such a threat is how much high-end talent they have at each position. In goal, that’s Jake Oettinger, who brings consistency to the starter’s net; last year, he saved almost 20 goals above expected, which ranked 13th in the league. He is on the cusp of becoming a top-five goalie in the league, thanks to his athleticism and reliability, but he does have room to take his game up a notch.
The weaknesses
The Stars have the third-best defense in the league with a plus-12.4 Net Rating. But it’s all thanks to their top-three of Heiskanen, Harley, and Lindell.
Luckily, this team isn’t trotting out a right side that is some combination of Cody Ceci, Ilya Lybushkin, and Matt Dumba again. But below Heiskanen, the depth still thins out significantly.
Nils Lundkvist put up a 52.7 percent xG rate in 39 regular-season games last year. He just wasn’t trusted much by the previous coaching staff. Perhaps things will change under Gulutzan; the coach has already said that he will get the opportunity to step up in training camp. But until he starts living up to his draft hype, he comes into the year with a projected minus-6.0 Net Rating.
Lundkvist being able to play top-four minutes is key; otherwise, that could mean more playing time for Lyubushkin. He is a black hole offensively, and isn’t effective enough defensively to make up for it.
Lian Bichsel doesn’t thread the needle much offensively, either. He, at least, brings size, physicality, and a positive impact on the Stars’ xG suppression last season to the third pair.
The bottom-three could force the Stars to look to the trade market again this spring, and right-handed defensemen are notoriously expensive to add. It doesn’t help that the Stars’ cupboards are starting to thin after years of contention; Dallas is already without two of its next three first-rounders, and its prospect pool dropped to 31st in the league.
That thinning prospect pool means there are fewer forwards to pull from, too. Bourque has graduated from that group, and another rising star, Logan Stankoven, was dealt last year. That may make it tougher for the Stars to replace the offense of Marchment and Mikhael Granlund.
Jamie Benn’s absence to start the year and overall decline adds another wrinkle to the bottom-six. The fourth line only chips in so much offense, between Sam Steel, Radek Faksa, Oskar Back, and Colin Blackwell. So third-line production is all the more important.
Benn’s scoring rate took a hit last year, but a change in power play production likely had a lot to do with that; he went from producing 6.96 points per 60 in 2023-24 on the advantage to 3.27. His five-on-five rate, at least, was efficient. There, the issue wasn’t his offense — it was his defense, which brought his xG rate down to break-even. His minus-2.1 Defensive Rating is the worst of the forward group.
So the Stars need two things from their depth: Someone to help stabilize Benn’s play in his own zone and more production from the forwards above him in the lineup. That’s why Bourque’s development is so important in Dallas. As much offensive talent as there is on the Stars, that was ultimately what crushed them in the postseason with a putrid 1.65 GF/60 at five-on-five.
The best case: 116 points
The Stars win everything: a Hart for Rantanen, a Selke for Hintz, a Norris for Heiskanen or Harley and a Vezina for Oettinger. But they save the best for last with a dominant Stanley Cup win, finally getting over the hump.
The worst case: 91 points
The loss of depth up front is felt deeply and the Stars struggle under a new coach. A Jekyll-and-Hyde defense isn’t enough to make up for it, leaving the Stars on the playoff bubble.
The bottom line
There are plenty of reasons to believe in the Stars — they’ve got two high-end defensemen, a forward group led by one of the best wingers in hockey and a goalie who many view as a future Vezina candidate — but if their season ends in the Western Conference playoffs, it’ll be time to start asking some tough questions.
References
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo of Mikko Rantanen and Jason Robertson: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)