COLUMBUS — We should probably quit while we’re ahead, while our reputation for prognostication is at an all-time high.
Last season, when we made our bold predictions for the Columbus Blue Jackets’ 2024-25 season, the results were so prophetic — some of them absolutely bang-on — that the ghost of Nostradamus was heard to groan: “Dayem.”
But why quit while you’re ahead, right?
The Blue Jackets may be a little more difficult to read than they were a year ago. We didn’t see the last-place franchise that many predicted in 2024-25, but instead a club that was loaded with young players ready to pop and veteran players well-equipped to guide them.
That’s all still in place, but now the Blue Jackets have to build on their 40-win, 89-point season that left them just two points shy of the postseason. The franchise appears to be awakening, but these things rarely follow a consistently upward trajectory. Really, do they ever?
We think the Blue Jackets are going to be very competitive again this season. But that’s not what this space is, right? This is for bold opinions that have a tremendous capacity to embarrass. And with all the back-pats we took last season, that seems likely.
Enough. Let’s get nutty.
1. Playoff drought ends
The Blue Jackets are riding a five-year playoff drought, the second longest in franchise history. But we’re stepping out on a limb to say that it ends next April. We’re just not sure how.
The Eastern Conference has some behemoths. It’s fair to wonder how far the Toronto Maple Leafs will slide without Mitch Marner, or if the Florida Panthers will take a tumble with Aleksander Barkov out for the season and Matthew Tkachuk out long term.
Other stalwarts don’t seem to be going away anytime soon: Carolina, New Jersey, the New York Rangers, Tampa Bay and Washington. And there are other clubs, like Columbus, who feel like they’re on the rise: Buffalo, Detroit, Montreal and Ottawa.
If the first seven clubs mentioned above all make it, the Blue Jackets would have to bump all four of Buffalo, Detroit, Montreal and Ottawa to earn a spot. Even if the Blue Jackets are once again dramatically better — they improved by 23 points last season — it won’t be easy to survive in this conference.
Still, we say they get it done. Wins: 46. Points: 99. Seed: sixth
2. Jet takes off
Jet Greaves had spent four seasons with AHL Cleveland, including recalls to Columbus in each of the last three. Last season, he had his longest run yet, starting 11 games (7-2-2) and taking over in the final two weeks of the season during a furious playoff push.
Greaves is now an NHL regular, and he’ll be given every chance at equal playing time with incumbent starter Elvis Merzlikins. The hope is that Greaves’ challenge to Merzlikins’ playing time will push the Latvian veteran to play as he did early in his career.
But if Greaves plays well enough to do that, he’ll likely just grab the top job himself.
Early in camp, Merzlikins questioned whether Greaves could handle a heavy workload in his first NHL season. It didn’t seem to be a problem last spring when Greaves played six games in nine days (the final five in Columbus) and became a sensation.
It’s hard to predict playing time. The Blue Jackets have 15 back-to-backs on the schedule, so there’s work for two here. But we suspect Jet Greaves is cleared for takeoff. And we safely predict you’ll be tired of Jet puns by early December.
3. Chinakhov … boom or bust
This is a tricky one. A truly bold prognosticator would say that Chinakhov is going to score 30 goals in a breakout season, or that the situation is going to get messy until the 24-year-old Russian is traded. The guess here is that it’s going to be one or the other.
In Tuesday’s preseason game vs. Washington, Chinakhov played on the top line with center Sean Monahan and winger Dmitri Voronkov, taking Kirill Marchenko’s spot. But just one day earlier in practice, he appeared as the extra forward on the fourth line, alternating shifts with Zach Aston-Reese. That’s how it was on Thursday, too.
There’s a spot for Chinakhov in the top six, but he has to grab it. In this case, it probably means supplanting second-line wingers Boone Jenner or Kent Johnson, or taking Voronkov’s spot up top. None of these will be easy, but that’s life in the NHL.
Chinakhov isn’t out of place on a third line with center Charlie Coyle and Cole Sillinger, but the Jackets really like playing Mathieu Olivier, who had 18 goals last season, above their fourth line. Chinakhov doesn’t make sense on a fourth line, and he doesn’t want to be there.
This prediction in a nutshell: we’ll know by November which way this is going.
4. Marchenko joins ’40’ club
Many have discussed Marchenko as having a breakout season in 2024-25, and he did score a career-high 31 goals. But he wasn’t exactly an out-of-nowhere scorer.
Marchenko, who turned 25 this summer, had 21 goals as a rookie and 23 goals in 2023-24. Then he met Sean Monahan, gained a regular role and linemates on the top line, and saw his minutes swell by more than two minutes per game. Voila! Thirty-one goals.
Why are we convinced Marchenko’s production is still climbing? A whopping 29 of his goals were scored at even strength. Only Tage Thompson, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, William Nylander, Brandon Hagel, Alex Ovechkin and Kyle Connor scored more at even strength.
In other words, if the Blue Jackets’ power play — you may have heard this before — can be merely average, Marchenko should have double-digit goal potential from his left half-wall.
Put Marchenko in the Blue Jackets’ exclusive “40 club,” which currently has two members: Rick Nash (twice) and Cam Atkinson.
5. Boone’s here to stay
NHL player contracts are a big topic across the league these days, with Kirill Kaprizov’s massive deal with the Minnesota Wild and Connor McDavid’s lingering contract talks with the Edmonton Oilers. The Blue Jackets have some big deals to sign in the coming years, too.
But here’s one that won’t draw the attention of Kaprizov or McDavid, or even the Blue Jackets’ Adam Fantilli, who is a restricted free agent next summer.
This will be Boone Jenner’s 13th season with the Blue Jackets, but … doesn’t it seem like he’s just always been here? Jenner, currently at a franchise-record 741 games, could be the organization’s first 1,000-game player, but he’ll need a new contract to get there.
Jenner, 32, is an unrestricted free agent next summer. He’s currently under a club-friendly deal that pays him $3.75 million per season.
It says here that Jenner will sign a contract at some point this season — it doesn’t sound as if talks have started seriously yet — that will keep him in Columbus for his entire career. The player and the franchise don’t want it any other way, it seems.
6. Fewer fights for Olivier
Mathieu Olivier led the NHL with 15 fighting majors last season, and he was second in the league in penalty minutes with 139. After rising in the ranks for the previous two seasons in Columbus, most agree that he is now the most feared fighter in the league.
One other aspect of Olivier’s game bloomed last season, too. He scored 18 goals, which was seventh on the Blue Jackets and more than Olivier had scored in his entire career. He forechecks like a demon. He’s immovable at the net-front. His hands are as soft as kittens.
With all of this now part of the brew, we expect Olivier to work more with his gloves on this season.
His “most-feared fighter” status will cause some young roughs to step to the champ, but mostly it will make the middleweights and part-time scrappers shy away from the challenge. It can be really hard, actually, for some guys to get a fight.
Further, Olivier’s role on the Blue Jackets — he’s been a third-line player throughout camp, just like he was last season — will require him to pick and choose his spots judiciously.
7. Special teams … really?
The Blue Jackets’ power play has ranked among the NHL’s 10 worst in each of the last eight seasons. The penalty kill hasn’t finished higher than 20th since coach John Tortorella left town in 2021.
Seriously, guys?
Zach Werenski, who finished second in Norris Trophy voting, is a world-class defenseman. Sean Monahan is one of the league’s best “bumpers.” The playmaking of Kent Johnson, the sharpshooting of Marchenko and the net-front space-eating of Jenner should make this a very good unit.
Put another way: Adam Fantilli, who had 31 goals last season, is currently on the second unit, along with Dmitri Voronkov (23 goals).
This is where the roster continuity can come in handy, too. These players — these units, really — have played so many games together that they have a keen sense of each other’s quick-twitch tendencies, and they can play off each other with just one look of the eyes.
The penalty kill will have a new look with Charlie Coyle, Miles Wood and Isac Lundestrom joining the unit. But there’s plenty of grit, small-space skill and battle on this roster to be more than effective.
We’re not going to say the Blue Jackets should be top 10 in either or both. But we’ll predict they are in the top half of the league on both sides of the ledger, which means their special teams with be a benefit to the cause, not the typical energy drain.
8. Look who’s back!
Nick Foligno has never changed his plans. When his career is finished, he and his family will settle in the Columbus suburbs. They’re actually building a home right now that should be ready by the spring. See where this is going?
Foligno, who turns 38 later this month, is in the final year of his contract with the Chicago Blackhawks, and quite possibly in the final year of his career.
The NHL trade deadline this season is March 6. By then, barring a major surprise, the Blackhawks will be quite a ways back in the standings and already preparing for the 2026 NHL Draft.
It would likely be a thrill for Foligno to join his brother, Marcus, with the Minnesota Wild, should the Wild be in the Western Conference playoff picture.
But if the Blue Jackets are above the bar in the Eastern Conference, couldn’t you see GM Don Waddell making a move that would boost not only the dressing room but also Nationwide Arena? Most would agree that Foligno is among the most beloved players to wear the sweater.
(Photo of Boone Jenner: Aaron Doster / Imagn Images)