Amid an influx of new residents and continued growth, Dallas’ once-sleepy suburban communities in Collin County are emerging as regional focal points.
Roads and homes can’t be built fast enough, and school districts struggle to cope with changes in enrollment.
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Between 2020 and 2024, Collin County grew 13.6%, according to the Texas Demographic Center, with more than 1.2 million residents. By 2060, the county’s population is expected to nearly double to more than 2.2 million residents, assuming migration rates continue at the current pace. For comparison, Dallas County’s 2020 population was about 2.6 million people and is expected to exceed 3.1 million by 2060.
Shifting racial and ethnic demographics
As the region has grown, so has its diversity.
Texas had the largest increase in the nation of its Asian American population between 2022 and 2023, gaining over 91,000 residents of Asian descent, according to a report by Austin-based nonprofit Asian Texans for Justice.
The Dallas-Fort Worth area accounted for nearly 44,000 of that increase, with nearly 20,000, or almost 22%, of those new residents in Collin County.
Housing market boom
Homebuyers flocked to Collin County during the COVID-19 pandemic in search of more affordable, bigger spaces and better schools.
After a bout of rapid home sales and a short supply of available houses, the market has steadied in recent years. However, home prices remain high.
Strained school districts
For school districts across Collin County, predicting enrollment trends and planning for a future full of unknowns is a hurdle for administrators. When enrollment falls short, it can result in closing schools and moving students around.
McKinney’s enrollment has started to plateau. Frisco’s is shrinking slightly. The districts’ school boards are considering closing or repurposing campuses. Enrollment in Plano has been dwindling in recent years, and the district closed four schools just this year.
But in Prosper and Celina, growth is still staggering, and these booming districts can barely keep up.