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While this last week has been full of player movement and teams working out new deals with their own free agents, the NBA free agency period, in which teams can officially begin negotiating free agency deals with eligible players, gets started on Monday at 5 p.m. CT.

Over the last few years, this time of year has been straightforward for the Milwaukee Bucks as the team has been over the luxury tax and thus somewhat limited in the moves they could make. Now out from underneath the restrictions of the second apron, Bucks general manager Jon Horst and his staff will have more avenues to attempt to improve the team, but still be severely restricted because of Damian Lillard’s torn left Achilles tendon, which will sideline the Bucks star point guard for much of the 2025-26 season.

Nevertheless, the Bucks’ front office will need to do what they have always tried to do over the last eight years and put the best possible team on the floor around two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in order to make a deep playoff run. That will be more difficult this season because of Lillard’s injury, but with injuries throughout the Eastern Conference, the Bucks still have a chance to be a playoff team next season if they make the right moves in the next few weeks.

With that ultimate goal in mind, let’s take a closer look at where the Bucks stand before free agency gets underway on Monday.

Salary cap overview

Heading into free agency, after Bobby Portis’ decision on Sunday night, the Bucks have six players with guaranteed contracts for the 2025-26 season:

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo ($54,126,380)
  • Damian Lillard ($54,126,380)
  • Kyle Kuzma ($23,010,605)
  • Bobby Portis ($13,445,754)
  • Pat Connaughton ($9,423,869)
  • Tyler Smith ($1,955,377)

Their combined salaries take up $156.1 million, which already exceeds the projected $154.6 million salary cap for the 2025-26 season.

On top of those guaranteed salaries, the Bucks also have three players with non-guaranteed contracts that guarantee after the start of free agency:

  • AJ Green ($2,301,587, guarantees July 8)
  • Andre Jackson Jr. ($2,221,677, guarantees July 7)
  • Chris Livingston ($2,221,677, guarantees July 15)

Those non-guaranteed salaries add up to roughly $6.7 million, but because each contract does not guarantee until those specific dates, there is some flexibility to start the offseason. Green will return next season and the Bucks will discuss a long-term extension with him this offseason. Jackson played nearly 1,000 minutes last season and showed he could have value moving forward. It will be interesting to see if the Bucks think they can do better than Livingston in free agency and considering he has the latest guarantee date, they can get a long look at the free agent market before being forced to make that decision.

Following the 2025 NBA Draft, Milwaukee Bucks assistant general manager Milt Newton told reporters that the team was still deciding whether they were going to roster Bogi Marković this season or have the No. 47 pick keep playing overseas for another season. The Athletic has learned, per a league source, that Marković’s preference is joining the Bucks for the 2025-26 season as a player on the 15-man roster. Marković joining the Bucks’ NBA roster would take up a roster spot, but it would open the possibility of signing the Serbian forward on a minimum contract, which is $1,272,869 for players selected in the second round of this year’s draft.

Adding a minimum salary for Marković and the salaries of Green and Jackson to the guaranteed salaries above would take the Bucks’ cap sheet close to $161.9 million. That is roughly $26 million from the projected luxury tax line of $187,895,400 and roughly $34 million from the projected first apron line of $195,945,200.

Note: When doing the math, unlikely bonuses — like the $2.4 million contained in Kuzma’s contract — count toward calculations in space under an apron, but not in space under the tax. So, the space to the first apron line is closer to roughly $31.6 million for the Bucks.

Exceptions, free agents and scenarios

The information above helps set the scene for what the Bucks can do to retain their own free agents, if they so choose, and then attempt to build next season’s roster. Because the Bucks moved themselves under the prohibitive second apron at the trade deadline by moving Khris Middleton and AJ Johnson to the Wizards for Kyle Kuzma, they will have a full set of salary cap exceptions at their disposal this offseason.

That will be undeniably helpful as the Bucks have a large group of their own free agents that they would like to retain, but in another way, it will also limit what they can ultimately spend. If a team uses the non-taxpayer midlevel exception ($14.1 million) and spends more of it than the taxpayer midlevel exception ($5.7 million), that team is hard-capped at the first apron, which means they cannot exceed the first apron at any point in the 2025-26 season.

So, as we go through the Bucks’ free agents, it is important to note that using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception would put a cap on how much the Bucks can spend.

But that might not end up being the only cap put on the Bucks’ spending this offseason. Per league sources, there is some belief around the NBA that the Bucks would like to avoid the luxury tax this upcoming season. As we showed above, that would mean roughly $5.6 million less in spending power for the team this offseason. As we will show below, the Bucks’ real feelings on this issue will likely be tested quickly because their free agent spending power is somewhat limited, now that they’ve agreed with Portis.

Portis’ longtime frontcourt partner, Brook Lopez, is the next biggest name on the Bucks’ free agent list, but let’s focus on the rest of the roster before getting back to Lopez.

Last July, with a few small- to mid-sized deals handed out last offseason, the Bucks eventually secured Gary Trent Jr. on a minimum contract a few weeks into free agency. It was a great deal at the time and Trent provided surplus value at that contract level by averaging 11.1 points in 25.6 minutes per game, primarily off the bench and knocking down 41.6 percent of his 5.9 3-point attempts per game.

While the limited market for Trent meant a great deal last offseason, it left the Bucks with limited avenues to retain Trent this offseason. While the Bucks own the Bird rights on Portis and Lopez, which allows them to offer each player their maximum salary, the same is not true for Trent.

The Bucks have two avenues for retaining Trent: either give him a 120 percent raise off of his minimum contract for last season or use an exception to give him a sizable raise. League sources had projected Trent’s first-year contract value to come in somewhere between $8 and $10 million this offseason, but the federal investigation into free-agent guard Malik Beasley related to gambling may cause a bit of instability in the shooting guard market. If Trent’s market remains at that level though, the Bucks would need to use part of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, which can be split among multiple players, to retain Trent.

That would leave a portion of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception available for the Bucks to use and there could be a natural fit there with Kevin Porter Jr. needing a new contract, after the 25-year-old point guard informed the Bucks he would be opting for free agency on Saturday. League sources believe that Porter’s first-year contract value could fall between $4 and $6 million. Despite a bounce-back season of sorts with the Los Angeles Clippers and Bucks, there is still hesitance among some teams to offer a long-term contract for Porter’s services.

Now, back to Lopez.

In a hypothetical world in which the Bucks use the full midlevel exception — either on Trent and Porter or another combination of two players — the team’s spending power decreases to roughly $11.9 million to the luxury tax line and $17.6 million to the first apron, where the Bucks would be hard-capped because they used the midlevel exception, with 11 players on the roster.

From there, the Bucks would need to start thinking about how they might fill two spots on the roster cheaply with veteran minimums. This might be a spot for Ryan Rollins, who the Bucks tendered to a qualifying offer on Sunday to make a restricted free agent, or Jericho Sims, Taurean Prince or free agents from other teams.

Using two of those open roster spots on veteran minimums — worth $2,296,271 against the cap — would shrink the Bucks’ spending power to roughly $7.3 million to the luxury tax line and $12.9 million to the first apron with Lopez remaining to be signed to get to the minimum of 14 players on the roster.

And therein lies a possible pressure point for the Bucks this offseason.

Amid interest from the Houston Rockets in the summer of 2023, Lopez returned to the Bucks with a two-year, $48 million deal. Now, two years later, at 37 years old, there will still be interest in his services around the league, but likely at a much lower salary cap figure. Next season will be Lopez’s 18th, but his combination of shot blocking and 3-point shooting remains a unique package in the NBA, so how will other NBA teams value it? Teams around the league might love adding Lopez, but is anyone willing to give him more than the taxpayer midlevel exception of $5.6 million?

If the Bucks do not retain Lopez and the cap space above remains, they could still use the bi-annual exception worth $5.1 million to sign a free agent. Or, they could trade for a player using the $7.2 million trade exception. Because the Bucks are under the second apron, there are more options this summer, but having more choices doesn’t necessarily make it any easier to select the right path.

Potential midlevel exception options

This section will highlight three options the Bucks could target with different portions of the non-taxpayer midlevel, as they can split it among players.

Full non-taxpayer, midlevel exception ($14.1 million): Nickeil Alexander-Walker

With new contracts for Naz Reid and Julius Randle, the Timberwolves have essentially pushed Nickeil Alexander-Walker out the door in Minnesota. If the Bucks want to use the entirety of the midlevel exception on one free agent, maybe Alexander-Walker could be their play. On Sunday night, The Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski reported that the Bucks are among the teams to watch in the pursuit of the newly in-demand shooting guard.

The 26-year-old shooting guard appeared in all 82 games in each of the last two seasons and remained a regular fixture in the playoff rotation of Chris Finch as Minnesota has advanced to the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons. In the last two seasons, Alexander-Walker averaged 8.7 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 24.4 minutes per game and knocked down 38.6 percent on 4.3 3-point attempts per game. Defensively, he proved to be a disruptive defender, both on the ball and as a help defender.

Most of non-taxpayer, midlevel exception ($7-10 million): Luke Kennard

If the Bucks can’t find a way to bring back Trent, Luke Kennard could be an interesting option for the Bucks at shooting guard. Kennard appeared in 65 games for the Grizzlies this season and averaged 8.9 points and 3.3 assists in 22.6 minutes per game.

While Kennard struggled with injuries in the two seasons before this past year, he has knocked down 43.8 percent from 3 in his eight NBA seasons. He may not be a great defensive player, but he has become better at holding up over the years and could be a knockdown shooter when Green is not on the floor.

Part of non-taxpayer, midlevel exception ($3-5 million): Nicolas Batum

On Saturday, the 36-year-old forward declined his $4.9 million player option with the Los Angeles Clippers for the 2025-26 season. After the season, he told reporters that he had interest in returning to Los Angeles next season, but declining the option at least gives other teams a chance to sign Batum.

Like Lopez, Batum has completed 17 NBA seasons, so he wouldn’t necessarily help in the future, but he could provide a strong veteran presence and a different look for the Bucks next season. In the last five seasons, Batum has knocked down 40.3 percent of his 1,247 3-point attempts and been a versatile defender across multiple positions.

Veteran minimum options

Amir Coffey — At 6-foot-7 and 210 pounds, Coffey would bring more size to the wing in Milwaukee and he knocked down 40.9 percent on 3.4 3-point attempts per game. He appeared in 72 games and averaged 9.7 points in 24.3 minutes per game, but fell out of the rotation at the end of the regular season as Kawhi Leonard took on a larger role, and then Coffey did not play in the postseason. The 28-year-old forward contributed on a 50-win team in the first 70 games of the season, but it’s tough to know how many people noticed.

Al Horford — We don’t know what Horford’s market will be at 39 years old, but playing for a good team will likely be part of his expectations. Last season, Horford started 42 games and played 27.7 minutes per game in 60 total games. After two seasons shooting better than 41 percent from 3, Horford’s 3-point shooting dipped to 36.3 percent, but he still averaged 9.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game.

Thomas Bryant — Bryant wasn’t always in Rick Carlisle’s rotation in the Pacers’ run to the NBA Finals this season, but he did have playoff moments and that would be a unique player to get on a minimum contract. The 6-foot-10 center will only be 28 years old next season and has flashed a quality 3-point shot at times to go with his strength and athleticism. He could be an interesting option as a backup big in Milwaukee.

(Photo of Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez: Jeff Hanisch / Imagn Images)