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Texas and Penn State started the season as the top two teams in the Associated Press Top 25.

It was understandable why. Both reached the College Football Playoff semifinals last season and returned enough high-profile talent to put them in the national title discussion in 2025.

But after Penn State’s baffling loss to winless UCLA and Texas’ ugly setback to a 1-3 Florida squad, their paths to the CFP look more daunting than ever.

With the season nearing the midway point, let’s evaluate where the 12 programs that reached the 2024 Playoff stand and whether they’re trending in the right direction to make a return trip this season.

Ohio State, defending national champion

AP ranking: No. 1
Record: 5-0, 2-0 Big Ten

The Buckeyes dominated Minnesota 42-3 on Saturday, and their defense hasn’t allowed more than nine points in a game this season. Ohio State has two road games against Top-25 foes remaining (Illinois and Michigan) and gets Penn State at home. The Buckeyes should be favored in all their remaining games, and it’s difficult to envision them not making the postseason. The Athletic’s projections give them a 98 percent chance of making the Playoff.

Notre Dame, national runner-up

AP ranking: No. 16
Record: 3-2

The Fighting Irish started the season 0-2 with close losses to Miami and Texas A&M. Notre Dame is essentially in a position where it has to win out and finish 10-2 to reach the Playoff. It’s certainly doable, but opportunities for quality wins are slim. There are no ranked teams left on the Fighting Irish’s schedule, though USC has a chance to enter the polls if it can beat Michigan this week. It will be interesting to see what the CFP selection committee does if Notre Dame is 10-2 and contending for an at-large bid with a 10-2 team from a Power-4 conference. It’ll be time to embrace debate in that scenario.

Penn State, 2024 semifinalist

AP ranking: unranked
Record: 3-2, 0-2 Big Ten

This was supposed to be the year for the Nittany Lions, who brought back an experienced quarterback, a top-flight running back duo and a solid core on defense. But Penn State has not lived up to expectations and has taken a step back. James Franklin won’t be fired, but it’s fair to wonder if his program can truly bounce back from such a devastating loss. Franklin has struggled in high-profile games, and there are still dates with No. 1 Ohio State (road) and No. 7 Indiana (home) remaining. Penn State has to win both to have a shot at reaching the Playoff. It’s looking bleak in Happy Valley right now.

Texas, 2024 semifinalist

AP ranking: unranked
Record: 3-2, 0-1 SEC

Texas’ offensive issues showed up in Week 1 against Ohio State, and a month later, those problems still persist. Arch Manning has struggled mightily, the running game has produced average results and the offensive line has not protected Manning well enough. The preseason No. 1 team is 3-2 and still has games against Oklahoma (neutral), Vanderbilt (home), Georgia (road) and Texas A&M (road) remaining. The Longhorns have not played up to their potential this season, and it seems doubtful that they’ll run the table or win the SEC championship, which seems like it’ll be necessary for them to make the Playoff for a third consecutive season.

Arizona State, 2024 quarterfinalist

AP ranking: No. 21
Record: 4-1, 2-0 Big 12

The Sun Devils have been performing a high-wire act. They’ve needed field goals in the final moments to win their past two games, against Baylor and TCU. We’ll gain better insight about Arizona State’s Playoff chances over the next two weeks with games at Utah and against a top-10 Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders look like the Big 12’s best team. Much like last season, the Sun Devils probably have to win the conference to reach the Playoff.

Boise State, 2024 quarterfinalist

AP ranking: unranked
Record: 3-2, 1-0 MW

The winner of the American is almost a lock to receive a Playoff spot. So even if Boise State — which already has two losses — wins the Mountain West, it will not be returning to the 12-team field.

Georgia, 2024 quarterfinalist

AP ranking: No. 10
Record: 4-1, 2-1 SEC

The Bulldogs rebounded from their loss to Alabama with a comfortable win against Kentucky on Saturday. Georgia has games against ranked Ole Miss (home) and Georgia Tech (neutral) remaining. Auburn (road), Florida (neutral) and Texas (home) have the potential to make things tricky for a Bulldogs squad that seems more vulnerable than in recent years. A 10-2 finish would be good enough to put Kirby Smart’s team in the mix for a Playoff spot, but the Dawgs will have to sort out some issues to get there.

Oregon, 2024 quarterfinalist

AP ranking: No. 3
Record: 5-0, 2-0 Big Ten

Oregon hosts Indiana on Saturday in a huge game for both teams. After that, the Ducks might not face another ranked team in the regular season — though road games at Iowa and Washington and a home date with USC could pose some challenges. The win at Penn State lost a lot of its shine after the Nittany Lions lost at UCLA last weekend, but 10 or 11 victories and a trip to the Big Ten title game should put Oregon in good position for another trip to the Playoff. And with the new seeding rules, the Ducks might get a better draw in the bracket after having to face Ohio State in the quarters last season.

Clemson, 2024 first-round appearance

AP ranking: unranked
Record: 2-3, 1-2 ACC

The Tigers were a preseason top-five team and a trendy pick to win the national championship, but their Playoff hopes died with their 1-3 start to the season.

Indiana, 2024 first-round appearance

AP ranking: No. 7
Record: 5-0, 2-0 Big Ten

Some probably viewed the Hoosiers as a one-year wonder after their surprise Playoff appearance last season, but a 63-10 victory against a ranked Illinois team last month made quite a statement and demonstrated that Indiana is here to stay. The Hoosiers survived a dreaded trip to Iowa after the big win against the Illini, and have tough road trips to Oregon and Penn State left. Even if they lose both games, 10-2 will still have them in contention for another Playoff bid.

SMU, 2024 first-round playoff appearance

AP ranking: unranked
Record: 3-2, 1-0 ACC

SMU lost two nonconference losses (to Baylor and TCU), and the defense has been very underwhelming through the first month of the season. The Mustangs’ two toughest games will be at home, vs. Miami and Louisville. They will likely need to win the ACC title to return to the Playoff.

Tennessee, 2024 first-round playoff appearances

AP ranking: No. 12
Record: 4-1, 1-1 SEC

This is supposed to be sort of a reset year in Knoxville, based on what the Vols lost from last season’s Playoff team, but they have played well during their 4-1 start. The schedule will be much harder in the second half of the season, with games against Alabama (road), Oklahoma (home), Florida (road) and Vanderbilt (home). We’ll see if the Volunteers and their defense, which ranks 103rd nationally in scoring, are built for a potential Playoff push.

(Photo of Arch Manning: Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)