Officially, we’re less than two weeks into summer, but the season is already in full swing across the tri-state.
As we begin July, climatologically our warmest month of the year, we’re in for temperatures in the 80s, periods of high humidity, and the threat of strong to severe storms. Tuesday’s risk is higher compared with a day ago.
It will be dry through the morning, with storms returning to the area in the afternoon. Storms that do emerge will be more widespread than Monday’s storms, but don’t expect an all-day rain.
You’re more likely to encounter quick-hitting storms, with torrential downpours and strong winds that move through the area rapidly. This is a day to pack an umbrella, even if it seems like you won’t need it in the morning.
The risk for severe storms is elevated – Level 2 on a scale from 1 to 5. Like Monday, damaging wind gusts upwards of 50 mph are possible, strong enough to knock down tree limbs and power lines. Be sure to take any light outdoor furniture inside or properly tie it down so that you don’t have to retrieve it from a next-door yard.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front this afternoon into this evening. There is a risk of a few severe thunderstorms with the main threat damaging wind gusts. Localized heavy rain/flash flooding and frequent lightning are are also possible. pic.twitter.com/pMav2JrIre
— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) July 1, 2025
Isolated flooding is possible on Tuesday, too, but hail and tornadoes remain unlikely.
Where the heaviest rain sets up, two inches of rain or more is possible. The rest of the area will generally see between a half-inch and an inch of rain accumulation. Frequent lightning is also possible.
Any lingering showers Tuesday night will be gone by Wednesday morning, thanks to a cold front passing through. Temperatures won’t drop much behind the front, but lower humidity and dry skies will be the story for several days, including for the Fourth of July.
Highs on the 4th of July will be in the low 80s. Whether it’s the beach, pool, barbecue or bonfire, the weather will be spectacular for any sort of outdoor plans you have.
And, while the heat cranks up each day, the holiday weekend weather will be a winner throughout the region.