The Seattle Mariners are two wins away from the first World Series berth in franchise history. Monday night at Rogers Centre, the Mariners used three-run homers from Julio Rodríguez and Jorge Polanco to take Game 2 of the ALCS (SEA 10, TOR 3). Seattle is two wins away from the American League pennant. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, must win four of the next five games to advance.

Historically, teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 87% of the time. Games 3-5 will be played at T-Mobile Park, where the Mariners went 51-30 this season (39-42 on the road). The Blue Jays, meanwhile, went 40-41 on the road during the regular season (54-27 at home). The Mariners are very much in the ALCS driver’s seat.

That said, the series is not over. You only need to look back two years to see the last time a team overcame a 2-0 deficit in the Championship Series: the Arizona Diamondbacks did it against the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2023 NLCS. The Blue Jays are down (down bad), but there is a lot of baseball to play, and they are very, very good.