Storm activity could start brewing across metro Phoenix after a record-high start to the week, but don’t expect monsoon season to start with a bang.

Moisture is edging into Arizona as temperatures heat up, but storms will likely develop over higher terrain east and southeast of Phoenix. The region might see some gusty winds or blowing dust late on July 1, but widespread rainfall remains unlikely so far.

The high temperature on June 30 reached 116 degrees, 1 degree above the old record set in 2013 and 1979. Heat can be an important factor in the onset of monsoon showers, though it’s no guarantee.

“The Phoenix metro will only see about a 10 to 15% chance during the evening into the overnight hours on Tuesday,” said Alex Young, a lead meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Phoenix. “There are some better chances on Wednesday as the moisture is peaking across the area.”

The odds for rain are slightly higher for July 2, with a 15% to 30% chance of showers in Phoenix. This could bring isolated storms and dust to parts of the Valley.

“This increase in activity across eastern and southeastern Arizona will kick up some good dust with some gusty winds,” Young said. “We’ll have to monitor how things go down in southeastern Arizona and what they might send up our way Tuesday evening.”

The atmosphere will dry out again by July 3, but the surge of moisture will alleviate high temperatures heading into the July 4 holiday weekend. The National Weather Service issued extreme heat warnings through July 1, with lower deserts projected to have temperatures up to 117 degrees.

Temperatures will start to drop and trend near or slightly below normal over the holiday weekend, providing a reprieve for holiday picnics and poolside plans.

“For the 4th of July, it looks like no real chances of showers or thunderstorm activity,” Young said. “Our highs are going to be in the lower 100s.”

Hayleigh Evans writes about extreme weather and related topics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Email her with story tips at hayleigh.evans@arizonarepublic.com.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Phoenix-area weather: High temps could finally usher in monsoon storms